Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control.

METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights.

FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease.

INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems.

Protocolized versus non-protocolized weaning for reducing the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation in newborn infants: review

Background
Mechanical ventilation is a life-saving intervention for critically ill newborn infants with respiratory failure admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). Ventilating newborn infants can be challenging due to small tidal volumes, high breathing frequencies, and the use of uncuffed endotracheal tubes. Mechanical ventilation has several short-term, as well as long-term complications. To prevent complications, weaning from the ventilator is started as soon as possible. Weaning aims to support the transfer from full mechanical ventilation support to spontaneous breathing activity.

Objectives
To assess the efficacy of protocolized versus non-protocolized ventilator weaning for newborn infants in reducing the duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, the duration of weaning, and shortening the NICU and hospital length of stay. To determine efficacy in predefined subgroups including: gestational age and birth weight; type of protocol; and type of protocol delivery. To establish whether protocolized weaning is safe and clinically effective in reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation without increasing the risk of adverse events.

Search methods
We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled trials (CENTRAL; the Cochrane Library; 2015, Issue 7); MEDLINE In-Process and other Non-Indexed Citations and OVID MEDLINE (1950 to 31 July 2015); CINAHL (1982 to 31 July 2015); EMBASE (1988 to 31 July 2015); and Web of Science (1990 to 15 July 2015). We did not restrict language of publication. We contacted authors of studies with a subgroup of newborn infants in their study, and experts in the field regarding this subject. In addition, we searched abstracts from conference proceedings, theses, dissertations, and reference lists of all identified studies for further relevant studies.

Selection criteria
Randomized, quasi-randomized or cluster-randomized controlled trials that compared protocolized with non-protocolized ventilator weaning practices in newborn infants with a gestational age of 24 weeks or more, who were enrolled in the study before the postnatal age of 28 completed days after the expected date of birth.

Data collection and analysis
Four authors, in pairs, independently reviewed titles and abstracts identified by electronic searches. We retrieved full-text versions of potentially relevant studies.

Main results
Our search yielded 1752 records. We removed duplicates (1062) and irrelevant studies (843). We did not find any randomized, quasi-randomized or cluster-randomized controlled trials conducted on weaning from mechanical ventilation in newborn infants. Two randomized controlled trials met the inclusion criteria on type of study and type of intervention, but only included a proportion of newborns. The study authors could not provide data needed for subgroup analysis; we excluded both studies.

Authors' conclusions
Based on the results of this review, there is no evidence to support or refute the superiority or inferiority of weaning by protocol over non-protocol weaning on duration of invasive mechanical ventilation in newborn infants.

Estimating biomass, fishing mortality, and "total allowable discards" for surveyed non-target fish

Demersal fisheries targeting a few high-value species often catch and discard other "non-target" species. It is difficult to quantify the impact of this incidental mortality when population biomass of a non-target species is unknown. We calculate biomass for 14 demersal fish species in ICES Area VIIg (Celtic Sea) by applying species-and length-based catchability corrections to catch records from the Irish Groundfish Survey (IGFS). We then combine these biomass estimates with records of commercial discards (and landings for marketable non-target species) to calculate annual harvesting rates (HR) for each study species. Uncertainty is incorporated into estimates of both biomass andHR. Our survey-based HR estimates for cod and whiting compared well with HR-converted fishing mortality (F) estimates from analytical assessments for these two stocks. Of the non-target species tested, red gurnard (Chelidonichthys cuculus) recorded some annual HRs greater than those for cod or whiting; challenging "Pope's postulate" that F on non-target stocks in an assemblage will not exceed that on target stocks. We relate HR for each species to two corresponding maximum sustainable yield (MSY) reference levels; six non-target species (including three ray species) show annual HRs >= HRMSY. This result suggests that it may not be possible to conserve vulnerable non-target species when F is coupled to that of target species. Based on biomass, HR, and HRMSY, we estimate "total allowable catch" for each non-target species.

Predictive Value of Depressive Symptoms for All-Cause Mortality: Findings From the PRIME Belfast Study Examining the Role of Inflammation and Cardiovascular Risk Markers

OBJECTIVES: To improve understanding about the potential underlying biological mechanisms in the link between depression and all-cause mortality and to investigate the role that inflammatory and other cardiovascular risk factors may play in the relationship between depressive symptoms and mortality.

METHODS: Depression and blood-based biological markers were assessed in the Belfast PRIME prospective cohort study (N = 2389 men, aged 50-59 years) in which participants were followed up for 18 years. Depression was measured using the 10-item Welsh Pure Depression Inventory. Inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP], neopterin, interleukin [IL]-1 receptor antagonist [IL-1Ra], and IL-18) and cardiovascular-specific risk factors (N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 [CT-proET]) were obtained at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to examine the association between depression and biological measures in relation to all-cause mortality and explore the mediating effects.

RESULTS: During follow-up, 418 participants died. Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of CRP, IL-1Ra, and CT-proET. After adjustment for socioeconomic and life-style risk factors, depressive symptoms were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.10 per scale unit, 95% confidence interval = 1.04-1.16). This association was partly explained by CRP (7.3%) suggesting a minimal mediation effect. IL-1Ra, N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-atrial natriuretic peptide, midregion pro-adrenomedullin, and CT-proET contributed marginally to the association between depression and subsequent mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: Inflammatory and cardiovascular risk markers are associated with depression and with increased mortality. However, depression and biological measures show additive effects rather than a pattern of meditation of biological factors in the association between depression and mortality.

HDAC1 and HDAC2 independently predict mortality in hepatocellular carcinoma by a competing risk regression model in a Southeast Asian population

Histone deacetylases (HDACs) are enzymes involved in transcriptional repression. We aimed to examine the significance of HDAC1 and HDAC2 gene expression in the prediction of recurrence and survival in 156 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among a South East Asian population who underwent curative surgical resection in Singapore. We found that HDAC1 and HDAC2 were upregulated in the majority of HCC tissues. The presence of HDAC1 in tumor tissues was correlated with poor tumor differentiation. Notably, HDAC1 expression in adjacent non-tumor hepatic tissues was correlated with the presence of satellite nodules and multiple lesions, suggesting that HDAC1 upregulation within the field of HCC may contribute to tumor spread. Using competing risk regression analysis, we found that increased cancer-specific mortality was significantly associated with HDAC2 expression. Mortality was also increased with high HDAC1 expression. In the liver cancer cell lines, HEP3B, HEPG2, PLC5, and a colorectal cancer cell line, HCT116, the combined knockdown of HDAC1 and HDAC2 increased cell death and reduced cell proliferation as well as colony formation. In contrast, knockdown of either HDAC1 or HDAC2 alone had minimal effects on cell death and proliferation. Taken together, our study suggests that both HDAC1 and HDAC2 exert pro-survival effects in HCC cells, and the combination of isoform-specific HDAC inhibitors against both HDACs may be effective in targeting HCC to reduce mortality.

Epidemiology, Patterns of Care, and Mortality for Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Intensive Care Units in 50 Countries

Importance Limited information exists about the epidemiology, recognition, management, and outcomes of patients with the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).

Objectives To evaluate intensive care unit (ICU) incidence and outcome of ARDS and to assess clinician recognition, ventilation management, and use of adjuncts—for example prone positioning—in routine clinical practice for patients fulfilling the ARDS Berlin Definition.

Design, Setting, and Participants The Large Observational Study to Understand the Global Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Failure (LUNG SAFE) was an international, multicenter, prospective cohort study of patients undergoing invasive or noninvasive ventilation, conducted during 4 consecutive weeks in the winter of 2014 in a convenience sample of 459 ICUs from 50 countries across 5 continents.

Exposures Acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was ICU incidence of ARDS. Secondary outcomes included assessment of clinician recognition of ARDS, the application of ventilatory management, the use of adjunctive interventions in routine clinical practice, and clinical outcomes from ARDS.

Results Of 29 144 patients admitted to participating ICUs, 3022 (10.4%) fulfilled ARDS criteria. Of these, 2377 patients developed ARDS in the first 48 hours and whose respiratory failure was managed with invasive mechanical ventilation. The period prevalence of mild ARDS was 30.0% (95% CI, 28.2%-31.9%); of moderate ARDS, 46.6% (95% CI, 44.5%-48.6%); and of severe ARDS, 23.4% (95% CI, 21.7%-25.2%). ARDS represented 0.42 cases per ICU bed over 4 weeks and represented 10.4% (95% CI, 10.0%-10.7%) of ICU admissions and 23.4% of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Clinical recognition of ARDS ranged from 51.3% (95% CI, 47.5%-55.0%) in mild to 78.5% (95% CI, 74.8%-81.8%) in severe ARDS. Less than two-thirds of patients with ARDS received a tidal volume 8 of mL/kg or less of predicted body weight. Plateau pressure was measured in 40.1% (95% CI, 38.2-42.1), whereas 82.6% (95% CI, 81.0%-84.1%) received a positive end-expository pressure (PEEP) of less than 12 cm H2O. Prone positioning was used in 16.3% (95% CI, 13.7%-19.2%) of patients with severe ARDS. Clinician recognition of ARDS was associated with higher PEEP, greater use of neuromuscular blockade, and prone positioning. Hospital mortality was 34.9% (95% CI, 31.4%-38.5%) for those with mild, 40.3% (95% CI, 37.4%-43.3%) for those with moderate, and 46.1% (95% CI, 41.9%-50.4%) for those with severe ARDS.

Conclusions and Relevance Among ICUs in 50 countries, the period prevalence of ARDS was 10.4% of ICU admissions. This syndrome appeared to be underrecognized and undertreated and associated with a high mortality rate. These findings indicate the potential for improvement in the management of patients with ARDS.

A high-value, low-cost bubble continuous positive airway pressure system for low-resource settings:technical assessment and initial case reports

Acute respiratory infections are the leading cause of global child mortality. In the developing world, nasal oxygen therapy is often the only treatment option for babies who are suffering from respiratory distress. Without the added pressure of bubble Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (bCPAP) which helps maintain alveoli open, babies struggle to breathe and can suffer serious complications, and frequently death. A stand-alone bCPAP device can cost $6,000, too expensive for most developing world hospitals. Here, we describe the design and technical evaluation of a new, rugged bCPAP system that can be made in small volume for a cost-of-goods of approximately $350. Moreover, because of its simple design--consumer-grade pumps, medical tubing, and regulators--it requires only the simple replacement of a <$1 diaphragm approximately every 2 years for maintenance. The low-cost bCPAP device delivers pressure and flow equivalent to those of a reference bCPAP system used in the developed world. We describe the initial clinical cases of a child with bronchiolitis and a neonate with respiratory distress who were treated successfully with the new bCPAP device.

Identification of diagnostic biomarkers for infection in premature neonates

Infection is a leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Premature neonates are particularly susceptible to infection because of physiologic immaturity, comorbidity, and extraneous medical interventions. Additionally premature infants are at higher risk of progression to sepsis or severe sepsis, adverse outcomes, and antimicrobial toxicity. Currently initial diagnosis is based upon clinical suspicion accompanied by nonspecific clinical signs and is confirmed upon positive microbiologic culture results several days after institution of empiric therapy. There exists a significant need for rapid, objective, in vitro tests for diagnosis of infection in neonates who are experiencing clinical instability. We used immunoassays multiplexed on microarrays to identify differentially expressed serum proteins in clinically infected and non-infected neonates. Immunoassay arrays were effective for measurement of more than 100 cytokines in small volumes of serum available from neonates. Our analyses revealed significant alterations in levels of eight serum proteins in infected neonates that are associated with inflammation, coagulation, and fibrinolysis. Specifically P- and E-selectins, interleukin 2 soluble receptor alpha, interleukin 18, neutrophil elastase, urokinase plasminogen activator and its cognate receptor, and C-reactive protein were observed at statistically significant increased levels. Multivariate classifiers based on combinations of serum analytes exhibited better diagnostic specificity and sensitivity than single analytes. Multiplexed immunoassays of serum cytokines may have clinical utility as an adjunct for rapid diagnosis of infection and differentiation of etiologic agent in neonates with clinical decompensation.

A Role for Behavior in the Relationships Between Depression and Hostility and Cardiovascular Disease Incidence, Mortality, and All-Cause Mortality: the Prime Study

BACKGROUND: Behavioral factors are important in disease incidence and mortality and may explain associations between mortality and various psychological traits.

PURPOSE: These analyses investigated the impact of behavioral factors on the associations between depression, hostility and cardiovascular disease(CVD) incidence, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality.

METHODS: Data from the PRIME Study (N = 6953 men) were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models, following adjustment for demographic and biological CVD risk factors, and other psychological traits, including social support.

RESULTS: Following initial adjustment, both depression and hostility were significantly associated with both mortality outcomes (smallest SHR = 1.24, p < 0.001). Following adjustment for behavioral factors, all relationships were attenuated both when accounting for and not accounting for other psychological variables. Associations with all-cause mortality remained significant (smallest SHR = 1.14, p = 0.04). Of the behaviors included, the most significant contribution to outcomes was found for smoking, but a role was also found for fruit and vegetable intakes and high alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate well-known associations between depression, hostility, and mortality and suggest the potential importance of behaviors in explaining these relationships.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.

Clopidogrel use and cancer-specific mortality: a population-based cohort study of colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients

PURPOSE: Concerns were raised about the safety of antiplatelet thienopyridine derivatives after a randomized control trial reported increased risks of cancer and cancer deaths in prasugrel users. We investigate whether clopidogrel, a widely used thienopyridine derivative, was associated with increased risk of cancer-specific or all-cause mortality in cancer patients.

METHODS: Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients, newly diagnosed from 1998 to 2009, were identified from the National Cancer Data Repository. Cohorts were linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and to the Office of National Statistics mortality data (up to 2012). Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer-specific and all-cause mortality in post-diagnostic clopidogrel users were calculated using time-dependent Cox regression models.

RESULTS: The analysis included 10 359 colorectal, 17 889 breast and 13 155 prostate cancer patients. There was no evidence of an increase in cancer-specific mortality in clopidogrel users with colorectal (HR = 0.98 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77, 1.24) or prostate cancer (HR = 1.03 95%CI 0.82, 1.28). There was limited evidence of an increase in breast cancer patients (HR = 1.22 95%CI 0.90, 1.65); however, this was attenuated when removing prescriptions in the year prior to death.

CONCLUSIONS: This novel study of large population-based cohorts of colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients found no evidence of an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality among colorectal, breast and prostate cancer patients using clopidogrel.