Stormont is planning to remove democracy

Expert editorial opinion on proposed planning reform in Northern Ireland

Delaying Truth Recovery for Missing Persons

The fate of missing persons is a central issue in post-conflict societies facing truth recovery and human rights dilemmas. Despite widespread public sympathy towards relatives, societies emerging from conflict often defer the recovery of missing for decades. More paradoxically, in post-1974 Cyprus, the official authorities delayed unilateral exhumations of victims buried within cemeteries in their own jurisdiction. Analysis of official post-1974 discourse reveals a Greek-Cypriot consensus to emphasise the issue as one of Turkish aggression, thus downplaying in-group responsibilities and the legacy of intra-communal violence. We compare the experience of Cyprus with other post-conflict societies such as Spain, Northern Ireland, and Mozambique and explore the linkages between institutions and beliefs about transitional justice. We argue that elite consensus initiates and facilitates the transition to democracy but often leads to the institutionalization of groups opposing truth recovery even for in-group members.

Magma Evolution in the Primitive, Intra-oceanic Tonga Arc: Petrogenesis of Basaltic Andesites at Tofua Volcano

Tofua volcano is situated midway along the Tonga oceanic arc and has undergone two phases of ignimbrite-forming activity. The eruptive products are almost entirely basaltic andesites (52 center dot 5-57 wt % SiO2) with the exception of a volumetrically minor pre-caldera dacite. The suite displays a strong tholeiitic trend with K2O <1 wt %. Phenocryst assemblages typically comprise plagioclase + clinopyroxene +/- orthopyroxene with microlites of Ti-magnetite. Olivine (Fo(83-88)) is rare and believed to be dominantly antecrystic. An increase in the extent and frequency of reverse zoning in phenocrysts, sieve-textured plagioclase and the occurrence of antecrystic phases in post-caldera lavas record a shift to dynamic conditions, allowing the interaction of magma batches that were previously distinct. Pyroxene thermobarometry suggests crystallization at 950-1200 degrees C and 0 center dot 8-1 center dot 8 kbar. Volatile measurements of glassy melt inclusions indicate a maximum H2O content of 4 center dot 16 wt % H2O, and CO2-H2O saturation curves indicate that crystallization occurred at two levels, at depths of 4-5 center dot 5 km and 1 center dot 5-2 center dot 5 km. Major and trace element models suggest that the compositions of the majority of the samples represent a differentiation trend whereby the dacite was produced by 65% fractional crystallization of the most primitive basaltic andesite. Trace element models suggest that the sub-arc mantle source is the residuum of depleted Indian mid-ocean ridge basalt mantle (IDMM-1% melt), whereas radiogenic isotope data imply addition of 0 center dot 2% average Tongan sediment melt and a fluid component derived from the subducted altered Pacific oceanic crust. A horizontal array on the U-Th equiline diagram and Ra excesses of up to 500% suggest fluid addition to the mantle wedge within the last few thousand years. Time-integrated (Ra-226/Th-230) vs Sr/Th and Ba/Th fractionation models imply differentiation timescales of up to 4500 years for the dacitic magma compositions at Tofua.

Magma Evolution in the Primitive, Intra-oceanic Tonga Arc: Rapid Petrogenesis of Dacites at Fonualei Volcano

Fonualei is unusual amongst subaerial volcanoes in the Tonga arc because it has erupted dacitic vesicular lavas, tuffs and phreomagmatic deposits for the last 165 years. The total volume of dacite may approach 5 km(3) and overlies basal basaltic andesite and andesite lavas that are constrained to be less than a few millennia in age. All of the products are crystal-poor and formed from relatively low-viscosity magmas inferred to have had temperatures of 1100-1000 degrees C, 2-4 wt % H2O and oxygen fugacities 1-2 log units above the quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer. Major and trace element data, along with Sr-Nd-Pb and U-Th-Ra isotope data, are used to assess competing models for the origin of the dacites. Positive correlations between Sc and Zr and Sr rule out evolution of the within-dacite compositional array by closed-system crystal fractionation of a single magma batch. An origin by partial melting of lower crustal amphibolites cannot reproduce these data trends or, arguably, any of the dacites either. Instead, we develop a model in which the dacites reflect mixing between two dacitic magmas, each the product of fractional crystallization of basaltic andesite magmas formed by different degrees of partial melting. Mixing was efficient because the two magmas had similar temperatures and viscosities. This is inferred to have occurred at shallow (2-6 km) depths beneath the volcano. U-Th-Ra disequilibria in the basaltic andesite and andesite indicate that the parental magmas had fluids added to their mantle source regions less than 8 kyr ago and that fractionation to the dacitic compositions took less than a few millennia. The 165 year eruption period for the dacites implies that mixing occurred on a similar timescale, possibly during ascent in conduits. The composition of the dacites renders them unsuitable candidates as contributors to average continental crust.

Predation in the marine intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus Leach: implications of inter- and intra-individual variation

Studies of competition, predator–prey dynamics and food webs typically consider conspecifics as equal, however, individuals from the same population that are seemingly identical can show considerable variation with regards to a number of processes. Such phenomena may be demonstrated in terms of diet, and the quantities and types of resources that are consumed are commonly considered. The marine amphipod Echinogammarus marinus, a recently demonstrated predator on intertidal rocky shores, has been shown to consume a wide range of food types but it is unknown how this may vary between individuals. Here, we investigated the variation that occurs both among and within individuals of a population of E. marinus with respect to the mean numbers consumed of a common prey item, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, by comparing the length of starvation times, used as a proxy for hunger level, individuals maintained without food for up to 24 h consumed significantly less prey during feeding trials than those starved for 48 h and longer. The degree of inter-individual variation within each starvation period was also found to differ, with greater variation among individuals starved for shorter periods of time than those starved for longer time periods. Secondly, we tested whether individual amphipods tracked over time consumed consistently similar numbers of prey or whether they showed intra-individual variation, and if so, to what degree. We found that the numbers of prey consumed per individual could be predicted in the short-term between consecutive feeding trials, however over the long-term this relationship broke down. These results are discussed with respect to potential physiological and behavioural mechanisms, as well as the implications that such variation may have for stability of prey populations in the field.

Increasingly ‘Irrational’ Party Systems: Evidence that There Are Increasingly More Than Two at the District level

Recent work has noted an increase in the number of parties at the national level in both proportional and majoritarian electoral systems. While the conventional wisdom maintains that the incentives provided by the electoral system will prevent the number of parties at the district level from exceeding two in majoritarian systems, the evidence presented here demonstrates otherwise. I argue that this has occurred because the number of cleavages articulated by parties has increased as several third parties have begun articulating cleavages that are not well represented by the two larger parties.

Party agency and the religious-secular cleavage in post-Communist countries: The case of Romania

Research focusing on several post-communist countries has found evidence of social cleavage effects on political behaviour similar to those found in Western Europe. In some post-communist countries, however, social cleavage effects appear far weaker (if at all). To understand why this is the case, I perform a case study of Romania, focusing on the religious–secular cleavage. Drawing upon research that emphasises the role of parties in forming cleavages, I argue that the reason for the absence of social cleavage effects is due to party competition for the same group of voters by parties from opposing ends of the ideological spectrum. By shifting their positions, some parties have prevented the appearance of cleavages by shaping individuals' perceptions of the parties and, in doing so, have even altered individuals' own left–right self-placements.

The Effect of the Secret Ballot on Party System Fragmentation: A Test of Three Competing Arguments

Few studies have examined the impact that the adoption of the secret ballot had on party system fragmentation outside the United States. This article tests arguments maintaining that the adoption of the secret ballot had a negative, positive or nil effect on party system fragmentation. Using time-series cross-sectional data from
several countries adopting the secret ballot around the turn of the twentieth century, the results demonstrate that the adoption of the secret ballot did not hinder – though did not favour, either – the development of multiparty systems.

What’s in a (Party) Name?: Examining preferences, discipline, and social identity in a parliamentary free vote

In trying to understand the effects of political parties on shaping the voting behaviour of legislators, research has attempted the difficult task of separating the effects of preferences from rules used by party leaders to enforce discipline. However, little research has explored the prospect that party labels also reflect a social identity that is independent of legislators’ preferences and the rules used by party leaders to enforce discipline. In this study we examine that possibility, employing a data set that permits us to control both for leadership-based effects and legislator preferences on a 2000 free vote dealing with stem cell research. Using the British Representation Studies 1997 – which interviewed Members of Parliament regarding their preferences on several key issues related to the bill – we find significant evidence that party-as-identification plays a role in shaping how legislators vote, even after preferences and discipline are accounted for.

What’s information got to do with it? Third-party voting in plurality systems

Although strategic voting theory predicts that the number of parties will not exceed two in single-member district plurality systems, the observed number of parties often does. Previous research suggests that the reason why people vote for third parties is that they possess inaccurate information about the parties’ relative chances of winning. However, research has yet to determine whether third-party voting persists under conditions of accurate information. In this article, we examine whether possessing accurate information prevents individuals from voting for third-placed parties in the 2005 and 2010 British elections. We find that possessing accurate information does not prevent most individuals from voting for third-placed parties and that many voters possess reasonably accurate information regarding the viability of the parties in their constituencies. These findings suggest that arguments emphasizing levels of voter information as a major explanation for why multiparty systems often emerge in plurality systems are exaggerated.