A Game-Theoretic Approach for Threats Detection and Intervention in Surveillance

Threat prevention with limited security resources is a challenging problem. An optimal strategy is to eectively predict attackers' targets (or goals) based on current available information, and use such predictions to prevent (or disrupt) their planned attacks. In this paper, we propose a game-theoretic framework to address this challenge which encompasses the following three elements. First, we design a method to analyze an attacker's types in order to determine the most plausible type of an attacker. Second, we propose an approach to predict possible targets of an attack and the course of actions that the attackers may take even when the attackers' types are ambiguous. Third, a game-theoretic based strategy is developed to determine the best protection actions for defenders (security resources).

Holocene landscape intervention and plant food production strategies in island and mainland Southeast Asia

In the areas adjacent to the drowned Pleistocene continent of Sunda – present-day Mainland and Island SE Asia – the Austronesian Hypothesis of a diaspora of rice cultivators from Taiwan ∼4200 years ago has often been linked with the start of farming. Mounting evidence suggests that these developments should not be conflated and that alternative explanations should be considered, including indigenous inception of complex patterns of plant food production and early exchange of plants, animals, technology and genes. We review evidence for widespread forest disturbance in the Early Holocene which may accompany the beginnings of complex food-production. Although often insubstantial, evidence for incipient and developing management of rainforest vegetation and of developing complex relationships with plants is present, and early enough to suggest that during the Early to mid-Holocene this vast region was marked by different approaches to plant food production. The trajectory of the increasingly complex relationships between people and their food organisms was strongly locally contingent and in many cases did not result in the development of agricultural systems that were recognisable as such at the time of early European encounters. Diverse resource management economies in the Sunda and neighbouring regions appear to have accompanied rather than replaced a reliance on hunting and gathering. This, together with evidence for Early Holocene interaction between these neighbours, gives cause for us to question some authors continued adherence to a singular narrative of the Austronesian Hypothesis and the ‘Neolithisation’ of this part of the world. It also leads us to suggest that the forests of this vast region are, to an extent, a cultural artefact.

An Informant Report Behavior Diary for Measuring Temper Outbursts in an Intervention Setting

Temper outbursts are associated with several psychological disorders and comprise a high priority for intervention. However, the low frequency of outbursts presents a challenge for valid measurement. In the present study an informant report behavior diary for measuring temper outbursts was developed and its validity assessed in a case series. Caregivers of 12 individuals with the neurodevelopmental disorder Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS, in which temper outbursts are common) completed a behavior diary over 4 weeks, and a structured interview. Heart rate and movement data were recorded during a sample of the days subject to diary reporting. Individuals with PWS completed self-report ratings of negative emotion experience. Behavior diaries showed high concordance with the component behaviors and duration of temper outbursts reported in structured interviews; but tended to report a lower frequency. For outbursts reported in diaries during physiological recording, heart rate was consistently elevated above a resting state baseline; and was comparable to that recorded during high physical activity. Available self-report data demonstrated correspondence with the diaries but few self-report data were produced. The present results provide critical proof of principle data supporting the concurrent validity of the ecologically valid, resource efficient diaries, which can be exploited in future research.

SWAT-1: The effectiveness of a 'site visit' intervention on recruitment rates in a multi-centre randomised trial

Background: Recruitment rates in multi-centre randomised trials often fall below target recruitment rates, causing problems for study outcomes. The Studies Within A Trial (SWAT) Programme, established by the All-Ireland Hub for Trials Methodology Research in collaboration with the Medical Research Council Network of Hubs in the United Kingdom and others, is developing methods for evaluating aspects of trial methodology through the conduct of research within research. A recently published design for a SWAT-1 provides a protocol for evaluating the effect of a site visit by the principal investigator on recruitment in multi-centre trials.

Methods: Using the SWAT-1 design, the effect of a site visit, with the sole purpose of discussing trial recruitment, on recruitment rates in a large multicentre trial in the Republic of Ireland was evaluated. A controlled before and after intervention comparison was used, where the date of the site visit provides the time point for the intervention, and for the comparison to control sites. Site A received the intervention. Site B and Site C acted as the controls. Z-scores for proportions were calculated to determine within site recruitment differences. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to determine between site recruitment differences.

Results: Recruitment rates were increased in Site A post-intervention (17% and 14% percentage point increases at 1 and 3 months, respectively). No differences in recruitment occurred in Site B or in Site C. Comparing between site differences, at 3 months post-intervention, a statistically significant difference was detected in favour of higher recruitment in Site A (34% versus 25%; odds ratio 1.57, 95% confidence interval 1.09 to 2.26).

Conclusions: This is the first reported example of a study in the SWAT programme.. It provides evidence that a site visit, combined with a scheduled meeting, increases recruitment in a clinical trial. Using this example, other researchers might be encouraged to consider conducting a similar study, allowing the findings of future SWAT-1s to be compared and combined, so that higher level evidence on the effect of a site visit by the principal investigator can be obtained.

An evaluation of a tiered interrelated intervention to address hazardous/ harmful drinking

In Northern Ireland, alcohol misuse impacts negatively on individual drinkers, families and communities. The ‘Alcohol and You Project’ in the South Eastern Health and Social Care Trust is a funded project providing a range of inter-related services with the Trust and alcohol/drug misuse charities. It includes a self-help interactive website, brief intervention drop in clinics and counseling services. Queen's University Belfast is evaluating the effectiveness of the project to reduce hazardous/ harmful drinking.

Early intervention can improve outcomes in acute kidney injury

Acute Kidney Injury(AKI) is common, costly to manage and associated with high mortality. AKI can occur either in the community or in hospitalised patients and may be challenging to recognise because it is typically asymptomatic.Opportunities for prevention of AKI are frequently missed and in the absence of symptoms or signs there is often a delay in recognition ofestablished AKI.Approximately two thirds of hospitalised patients admitted with AKI have developed AKI in the community. AKI in hospitalised patients is associated with a substantial mortality rate > 20%. AKI is a potentially reversible process so improvements in recognition and early interventions could have a major impact on patient outcomes.

Effectiveness of a Multifaceted Intervention for Potentially Inappropriate Prescribing in Older Patients in Primary Care: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial (OPTI-SCRIPT Study)

PURPOSE Potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) is common in older people and can result in increased morbidity, adverse drug events, and hospitalizations. The OPTI-SCRIPT study (Optimizing Prescribing for Older People in Primary Care, a cluster-randomized controlled trial) tested the effectiveness of a multifaceted intervention for reducing PIP in primary care.

METHODS We conducted a cluster-randomized controlled trial among 21 general practitioner practices and 196 patients with PIP. Intervention participants received a complex, multifaceted intervention incorporating academic detailing; review of medicines with web-based pharmaceutical treatment algorithms that provide recommended alternative-treatment options; and tailored patient information leaflets. Control practices delivered usual care and received simple, patient-level PIP feedback. Primary outcomes were the proportion of patients with PIP and the mean number of potentially inappropriate prescriptions. We performed intention-to-treat analysis using random-effects regression.

RESULTS All 21 practices and 190 patients were followed. At intervention completion, patients in the intervention group had significantly lower odds of having PIP than patients in the control group (adjusted odds ratio = 0.32; 95% CI, 0.15–0.70; P = .02). The mean number of PIP drugs in the intervention group was 0.70, compared with 1.18 in the control group (P = .02). The intervention group was almost one-third less likely than the control group to have PIP drugs at intervention completion, but this difference was not significant (incidence rate ratio = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.50–1.02; P = .49). The intervention was effective in reducing proton pump inhibitor prescribing (adjusted odds ratio = 0.30; 95% CI, 0.14–0.68; P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS The OPTI-SCRIPT intervention incorporating academic detailing with a pharmacist, and a review of medicines with web-based pharmaceutical treatment algorithms, was effective in reducing PIP, particularly in modifying prescribing of proton pump inhibitors, the most commonly occurring PIP drugs nationally.

Combining vitamin C and carotenoid biomarkers better predicts fruit and vegetable intake than individual biomarkers in dietary intervention studies

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether combining potential biomarkers of fruit and vegetables is better at predicting FV intake within FV intervention studies than single biomarkers.

DESIGN: Data from a tightly controlled randomised FV intervention study (BIOFAV; all food provided and two meals/day on weekdays consumed under supervision) were used. A total of 30 participants were randomised to either 2, 5 or 8 portions FV/day for 4 weeks, and blood samples were collected at baseline and 4 weeks for plasma vitamin C and serum carotenoid analysis. The combined biomarker approach was also tested in three further FV intervention studies conducted by the same research team, with less strict dietary control (FV provided and no supervised meals).

RESULTS: The combined model containing all carotenoids and vitamin C was a better fit than either the vitamin C only (P < 0.001) model or the lutein only (P = 0.006) model in the BIOFAV study. The C-statistic was slightly lower in the lutein only model (0.85) and in the model based upon factor analysis (0.88), and much lower in the vitamin C model (0.68) compared with the full model (0.95). Results for the other studies were similar, although the differences between the models were less marked.

CONCLUSIONS: Although there was some variation between studies, which may relate to the level of dietary control or participant characteristics, a combined biomarker approach to assess overall FV consumption may more accurately predict FV intake within intervention studies than the use of a single biomarker. The generalisability of these findings to other populations and study designs remains to be tested. 

Decision making in child protection: An international comparative study on maltreatment substantiation, risk assessment and interventions recommendations, and the role of professionals’ child welfare attitudes

Child welfare professionals regularly make crucial decisions that have a significant impact on children and their families. The present study presents the Judgments and Decision Processes in Context model (JUDPIC) and uses it to examine the relationships between three indepndent domains: case characteristic (mother’s wish with regard to removal), practitioner characteristic (child welfare attitudes), and protective system context (four countries: Israel, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland and Spain); and three dependent factors: substantiation of maltreatment, risk assessment, and intervention recommendation.
The sample consisted of 828 practitioners from four countries. Participants were presented with a vignette of a case of alleged child maltreatment and were asked to determine whether maltreatment was substantiated, assess risk and recommend an intervention using structured instruments. Participants’ child welfare attitudes were assessed.
The case characteristic of mother’s wish with regard to removal had no impact on judgments and decisions. In contrast, practitioners’ child welfare attitudes were associated with substantiation, risk assessments and recommendations. There were significant country differences on most measures.
The findings support most of the predictions derived from the JUDPIC model. The significant differences between practitioners from different countries underscore the importance of context in child protection decision making. Training should enhance practitioners’ awareness of the impact that their attitudes and the context in which they are embedded have on their judgments and decisions.