Integrating textual analysis and evidential reasoning for decision making in Engineering design

Decision making is an important element throughout the life-cycle of large-scale projects. Decisions are critical as they have a direct impact upon the success/outcome of a project and are affected by many factors including the certainty and precision of information. In this paper we present an evidential reasoning framework which applies Dempster-Shafer Theory and its variant Dezert-Smarandache Theory to aid decision makers in making decisions where the knowledge available may be imprecise, conflicting and uncertain. This conceptual framework is novel as natural language based information extraction techniques are utilized in the extraction and estimation of beliefs from diverse textual information sources, rather than assuming these estimations as already given. Furthermore we describe an algorithm to define a set of maximal consistent subsets before fusion occurs in the reasoning framework. This is important as inconsistencies between subsets may produce results which are incorrect/adverse in the decision making process. The proposed framework can be applied to problems involving material selection and a Use Case based in the Engineering domain is presented to illustrate the approach. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Farmer perception of suitable conditions for slurry application compared with decision support system recommendations

The application of slurry nutrients to land can be associated with unintended losses to the environment depending on soil and weather conditions. Correct timing of slurry application, however, can increase plant nutrient uptake and reduce losses. A decision support system (DSS), which predicts optimum conditions for slurry spreading based on the Hybrid Soil Moisture Deficit (HSMD) model, was investigated for use as a policy tool. The DSS recommendations were compared to farmer perception of suitable conditions for slurry spreading for three soil drainage classes (well, moderate and poorly drained) to better understand on farm slurry management practices and to identify potential conflict with farmer opinion. Six farmers participated in a survey over two and a half years, during which they completed a daily diary, and their responses were compared to Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD) calculations and weather data recorded by on farm meteorological stations. The perception of land drainage quality differed between farmers and was related to their local knowledge and experience. It was found that the allocation of grass fields to HSMD drainage classes using a visual assessment method aligned farmer perception of drainage at the national scale. Farmer opinion corresponded to the theoretical understanding that slurry should not be applied when the soil is wetter than field capacity, i.e. when drainage can occur. While weather and soil conditions (especially trafficability) were the principal reasons given by farmers not to spread slurry, farm management practices (grazing and silage) and current Nitrates Directive policies (closed winter period for spreading) combined with limited storage capacities were obstacles to utilisation of slurry nutrients. Despite the slightly more restrictive advice of the DSS regarding the number of suitable spreading opportunities, the system has potential to address an information deficit that would help farmers to reduce nutrient losses and optimise plant nutrient uptake by improved slurry management. The DSS advice was in general agreement with the farmers and, therefore, they should not be resistant to adopting the tool for day to day management.

Assessment of factors that influence physician decision making regarding medication use in patients with dementia at the end of life

Objective
This study aimed to evaluate the extent to which patient-related factors and physicians' country of practice (Northern Ireland [NI] and the Republic of Ireland [RoI]) influenced decision making regarding medication use in patients with end-stage dementia.

Methods
The study utilised a factorial survey design comprising four vignettes to evaluate initiating/withholding or continuing/discontinuing specific medications in patients with dementia nearing death. Questionnaires and vignettes were mailed to all hospital physicians in geriatric medicine and to all general practitioners (GPs) in NI (November 2010) and RoI (December 2010), with a second copy provided 3 weeks after the first mailing. Logistic regression models were constructed to examine the impact of patient-related factors and physicians' country of practice on decision making. Significance was set a priori at p ≤ 0.05. Free text responses to open questions were analysed qualitatively using content analysis.

Results
The response rate was 20.6% (N = 662) [21.1% (N = 245) for GPs and 52.1% (N = 38) for hospital physicians in NI, 18.3% (N = 348) for GPs and 36.0% (N = 31) for hospital physicians in RoI]. There was considerable variability in decision making about initiating/withholding antibiotics and continuing/discontinuing the acetylcholinesterase inhibitor and memantine hydrochloride, and less variability in decision making regarding statins and antipsychotics. Patient place of residence and physician's country of practice had the strongest and most consistent effects on decision making although effect sizes were small.

Conclusions
Further research is required into other factors that may impact upon physicians' prescribing decisions for these vulnerable patients and to clarify how the factors examined in this study influence prescribing decisions.

Intra-operative decision making by ophthalmic surgeons

Research on surgical decision making and risk management usually focuses on peri-operative care, despite the magnitude and frequency of intra-operative risks. The aim of this study was to examine ophthalmic surgeons' intra-operative decisions and risk management strategies in order to explore differences in cognitive processes.

Bolivian health and social care professionals' experiences of decision-making in oncology and palliative care

In the UK, end-of-life care strategies recommend patients and families are involved in decision making around treatment and care. In Bolivia, such strategies do not exist, and access to oncology services depends on finance, geography, education and culture. Compared to more developed countries, the delivery of oncology services in Latin America may result in a higher percentage of patients presenting with advanced incurable disease. The objective of this study was to explore decision-making experiences of health and social care professionals who cared for oncology and palliative care patients attending the Instituto Oncológico Nacional, Cochabamba (Bolivia). Patients were predominantly from the Quechua tradition, which has its own ethnic diversity, linguistic distinctions and economic systems. Qualitative data were collected during focus groups. Data analysis was conducted using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Three interrelated themes emerged: (i) making sense of structures of experience and relationality; (ii) frustration with the system; and (iii) the challenges of promoting shared decision making. The study uncovered participants' lived experiences, emotions and perceptions of providing care for Quechua patients. There was evidence of structural inequalities, the marginalisation of Quechua patients and areas of concern that social workers might well be equipped to respond to, such as accessing finances for treatment/care, education and alleviating psychological or spiritual suffering.