Accumulating research: a systematic account of how cumulative meta-analyses would have provided knowledge, improved health, reduced harm and saved resources

BACKGROUND: "Cumulative meta-analysis" describes a statistical procedure to calculate, retrospectively, summary estimates from the results of similar trials every time the results of a further trial in the series had become available. In the early 1990 s, comparisons of cumulative meta-analyses of treatments for myocardial infarction with advice promulgated through medical textbooks showed that research had continued long after robust estimates of treatment effects had accumulated, and that medical textbooks had overlooked strong, existing evidence from trials. Cumulative meta-analyses have subsequently been used to assess what could have been known had new studies been informed by systematic reviews of relevant existing evidence and how waste might have been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a systematic approach to identify and summarise the findings of cumulative meta-analyses of studies of the effects of clinical interventions, published from 1992 to 2012. Searches were done of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and Science Citation Index. A total of 50 eligible reports were identified, including more than 1,500 cumulative meta-analyses. A variety of themes are illustrated with specific examples. The studies showed that initially positive results became null or negative in meta-analyses as more trials were done; that early null or negative results were over-turned; that stable results (beneficial, harmful and neutral) would have been seen had a meta-analysis been done before the new trial; and that additional trials had been much too small to resolve the remaining uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS: This large, unique collection of cumulative meta-analyses highlights how a review of the existing evidence might have helped researchers, practitioners, patients and funders make more informed decisions and choices about new trials over decades of research. This would have led to earlier uptake of effective interventions in practice, less exposure of trial participants to less effective treatments, and reduced waste resulting from unjustified research.

Treatment of relapse after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation with reduced intensity conditioning (FLAG +/- Ida) and second allogeneic stem cell transplant

Acute leukaemias in relapse after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) respond poorly to donor leucocyte infusions (DLI) compared with chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML), at least in part because of faster disease kinetics. Fludarabine-containing 'non-myeloablative' chemotherapy followed by further allo SCT may offer more rapid and effective disease control. We report 14 patients with relapse after allo SCT for acute leukaemia [seven acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), five acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL)] or refractory anaemia with excess blasts in transformation (RAEB-t, n = 2) treated with fludarabine, high-dose cytosine arabinoside (ara-C) and granulocyte colony-simulating factor (G-CSF) with (n = 10) or without (n = 2) idarubicin (FLAG +/- Ida) or DaunoXome (FLAG-X) (n = 2) and second allo SCT from the original donor. Donors were fully human leucocyte antigen (HLA) -matched in 13 cases with a single class A mismatch in one. Actuarial overall survival was 60% and disease-free survival was 26% at 58 months. Remissions after the second SCT were longer than those after the first bone marrow transplantation (BMT) in eight of the 13 assessable patients to date. Haematopoietic recovery was rapid. Transplants were well tolerated with no treatment-related deaths. The major complication was graft-versus-host disease (GvHD, acute >/= grade II-2 cases, chronic - eight cases, two limited, six extensive) although there have been no deaths attributable to this. FLAG +/- Ida and second allo SCT is a safe and useful approach and may be more effective than DLI in the treatment of acute leukaemias relapsing after conventional allo SCT.

Short Report:Engraftment of T-cell-depleted allogeneic haematopoietic stem cells using a reduced intensity conditioning regimen

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remains a significant complication in patients undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) using a reduced intensity conditioning regimen. Although T-cell depletion (TCD) reduces the risk of GVHD after a myeloablative conditioning regimen, it is associated with an increased risk of graft failure. We have therefore examined whether TCD compromises engraftment using a fludarabine-based conditioning regimen. Fifteen patients have been transplanted using such a regimen of whom 13 underwent ex vivo TCD. All but one patient demonstrated durable engraftment and no patient receiving a TCD product developed severe GVHD. Thus, TCD may play a role in GvHD prophylaxis using such regimens.

Promoter methylation correlates with reduced Smad4 expression in advanced prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-beta) is a potent growth inhibitor in a wide range of cell types. A transducer of TGF-beta signaling known as Mothers against decapentaplegic homologue 4 (Smad4) is a known tumor suppressor found on chromosome 18q21.1 and is typically inactivated by deletion or mutation in pancreatic and colorectal cancers. The purpose of the article is to investigate Smad4 expression, gene copy number and methylation status in advanced cases of prostate cancer.

METHODS: We have employed Methylation Specific PCR (MSP) to identify methylation sites within the Smad4 promoter and combined this with quantitative real-time PCR to look for correlates between methylation status and Smad4 expression and to examine androgen receptor (AR) expression. Bacterial artificial chromosome-comparative genomic hybridization (BAC-CGH) has been used to look for genomic amplifications and deletions which may also contribute to expression changes.

RESULTS: We fail to find evidence of genomic deletions or amplifications affecting the Smad4 locus on chromosome 18 but show a correlation between promoter methylation and the loss of Smad4 expression in the same material. We confirm that the AR locus on the X chromosome is amplified in 30% of the advanced clinical samples and that this correlates with increased transcript levels as previously reported by other groups.

CONCLUSION: This indicates that epigenetic changes affect the expression of the Smad4 protein in prostate cancer and points to methylation of the promoter as a novel marker of and contributor to the disease warranting further study.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the APCS gene influence geographic atrophy secondary to VEGF inhibition therapy in neovascular macular degeneration.

Introduction: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of vision loss in the elderly mostly due to the development of neovascular AMD (nAMD) or geographic atrophy (GA). Intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) agents are an effective therapeutic option for nAMD. Following anti-VEGF treatments, increased atrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and choriocapillaries that resembles GA has been reported. We sought to evaluate the underlying genetic influences that may contribute to this process. Methods: We selected 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from genes previously identified as susceptibility factors in AMD, along with 43 SNPs from genes encoding the VEGF protein and its cognate receptors as this pathway is targeted by treatment. We enrolled 467 consecutive patients (Feb 2009 to October 2011) with nAMD who received anti-VEGF therapy. The acutely presenting eye was designated as the study eye and retinal tomograms graded for macular atrophy at study exit. Statistical analysis was performed using PLINK to identify SNPs with a P value < 0.01. Logistic regression models with macular atrophy as dependent variable were fitted with age, gender, smoking status, common genetic risk factors and the identified SNPs as explanatory variables. Results: Grading for macular atrophy was available in 304 study eyes and 70% (214) were classified as showing macular atrophy. In the unadjusted analysis we observed significant associations between macular atrophy and two independent SNPs in the APCS gene: rs6695377: odds ratio (OR) = 1.98; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 1.23, 3.19; P = 0.004; rs1446965: OR = 2.49, CI: 1.29, 4.82; P = 0.006 and these associations remained significant after adjustment for covariates. Conclusions: VEGF is a mitogen and growth factor for choroidal blood vessels and the RPE and its inhibition could lead to atrophy of these key tissues. Anti-VEGF treatment can interfere with ocular vascular maintenance and may be associated with RPE and choroidal atrophy. As such, these medications, which block the effects of VEGF, may influence the development of GA. The top associated SNPs are found in the APCS gene, a highly conserved glycoprotein that encodes Serum amyloid P (SAP) which opsonizes apoptotic cells. SAP can bind to and activate complement components via binding to C1q, a mechanism by which SAP may remove cellular debris, affecting regulation of the three complement pathways.

Reduced risk of pancreatic cancer associated with asthma and nasal allergies

OBJECTIVE: Studies indicate an inverse association between ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (PDAC) and nasal allergies. However, controversial findings are reported for the association with asthma. Understanding PDAC risk factors will help us to implement appropriate strategies to prevent, treat and diagnose this cancer. This study assessed and characterised the association between PDAC and asthma and corroborated existing reports regarding the association between allergies and PDAC risk.

DESIGN: Information about asthma and allergies was collated from 1297 PDAC cases and 1024 controls included in the PanGenEU case-control study. Associations between PDAC and atopic diseases were studied using multilevel logistic regression analysis. Meta-analyses of association studies on these diseases and PDAC risk were performed applying random-effects model.

RESULTS: Asthma was associated with lower risk of PDAC (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.88), particularly long-standing asthma (>=17 years, OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.65). Meta-analysis of 10 case-control studies sustained our results (metaOR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.89). Nasal allergies and related symptoms were associated with lower risk of PDAC (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.83 and OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.77, respectively). These results were supported by a meta-analysis of nasal allergy studies (metaOR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.72). Skin allergies were not associated with PDAC risk.

CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a consistent inverse association between PDAC and asthma and nasal allergies, supporting the notion that atopic diseases are associated with reduced cancer risk. These results point to the involvement of immune and/or inflammatory factors that may either foster or restrain pancreas carcinogenesis warranting further research to understand the molecular mechanisms driving this association.

Glycosylation of Vitamin D Binding Protein Reduced in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Patients At Risk of Disease Extension.

Background/Purpose:Juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) comprises a poorly understood group of chronic, childhood onset, autoimmune diseases with variable clinical outcomes. We investigated whether profiling of the synovial fluid (SF) proteome by a fluorescent dye based, two-dimensional gel (DIGE) approach could distinguish the subset of patients in whom inflammation extends to affect a large number of joints, early in the disease process. The post-translational modifications to candidate protein markers were verified by a novel deglycosylation strategy.Methods:SF samples from 57 patients were obtained around time of initial diagnosis of JIA. At 1 year from inclusion patients were categorized according to ILAR criteria as oligoarticular arthritis (n=26), extended oligoarticular (n=8) and polyarticular disease (n=18). SF samples were labeled with Cy dyes and separated by two-dimensional electrophoresis. Multivariate analyses were used to isolate a panel of proteins which distinguish patient subgroups. Proteins were identified using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry with vitamin D binding protein (VDBP) expression and siaylation further verified by immunohistochemistry, ELISA test and immunoprecipitation. Candidate biomarkers were compared to conventional inflammation measure C-reactive protein (CRP). Sialic acid residues were enzymatically cleaved from immunopurified SF VDBP, enriched by hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) and analysed by mass spectrometry.Results:Hierarchical clustering based on the expression levels of a set of 23 proteins segregated the extended-to-be oligoarticular from the oligoarticular patients. A cleaved isoform of VDBP, spot 873, is present at significantly reduced levels in the SF of oligoarticular patients at risk of disease extension, relative to other subgroups (p<0.05). Conversely total levels of vitamin D binding protein are elevated in plasma and ROC curves indicate an improved diagnostic sensitivity to detect patients at risk of disease extension, over both spot 873 and CRP levels. Sialysed forms of intact immunopurified VDBP were more prevalent in persistent oligoarticular patient synovial fluids.Conclusion:The data indicate that a subset of the synovial fluid proteome may be used to stratify patients to determine risk of disease extension. Reduced conversion of VDBP to a macrophage activation factor may represent a novel pathway contributing to increased risk of disease extension in JIA patients.

Efficacy and Acceptability of Reduced Intensity Constraint-Induced Movement Therapy for Children Aged 9–11 years with Hemiplegic Cerebral Palsy: A Pilot Study

OBJECTIVE: Assess efficacy and acceptability of reduced intensity constraint-induced movement therapy (CIMT) in children with cerebral palsy (CP).

METHODS: Single-subject research design and semi-structured interviews. Children (9-11y) with hemiplegia underwent five baseline assessments followed by two weeks CIMT. Six further assessments were performed during treatment and follow-up phases. The primary outcome was the Melbourne Assessment of Unilateral Upper Limb Function (MUUL). Quantitative data were analysed using standard single-subject methods and qualitative data by thematic analysis.

RESULTS: Four of the seven participants demonstrated statistically significant improvements in MUUL (3-11%, p < .05). Two participants achieved significant improvements in active range of motion but strength and tone remained largely unchanged. Qualitative interviews highlighted limitations of the restraint, importance of family involvement, and coordination of treatment with education.

CONCLUSIONS: Reduced intensity CIMT may be effective for some children in this population; however it is not suitable for all children with hemiplegia.

Schizophrenia risk from complex variation of complement component 4

Schizophrenia is a heritable brain illness with unknown pathogenic mechanisms. Schizophrenia's strongest genetic association at a population level involves variation in the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus, but the genes and molecular mechanisms accounting for this have been challenging to identify. Here we show that this association arises in part from many structurally diverse alleles of the complement component 4 (C4) genes. We found that these alleles generated widely varying levels of C4A and C4B expression in the brain, with each common C4 allele associating with schizophrenia in proportion to its tendency to generate greater expression of C4A. Human C4 protein localized to neuronal synapses, dendrites, axons, and cell bodies. In mice, C4 mediated synapse elimination during postnatal development. These results implicate excessive complement activity in the development of schizophrenia and may help explain the reduced numbers of synapses in the brains of individuals with schizophrenia.

Detecting obfuscated malware using reduced opcode set and optimised runtime trace

The research presented, investigates the optimal set of operational codes (opcodes) that create a robust indicator of malicious software (malware) and also determines a program’s execution duration for accurate classification of benign and malicious software. The features extracted from the dataset are opcode density histograms, extracted during the program execution. The classifier used is a support vector machine and is configured to select those features to produce the optimal classification of malware over different program run lengths. The findings demonstrate that malware can be detected using dynamic analysis with relatively few opcodes.

Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Use is Not Associated With Reduced Risk of Barrett’s Esophagus

OBJECTIVES: Regular use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated with a reduced risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma. Epidemiological studies examining the association between NSAID use and the risk of the precursor lesion, Barrett’s esophagus, have been inconclusive.

METHODS: We analyzed pooled individual-level participant data from six case-control studies of Barrett’s esophagus in the Barrett’s and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Consortium (BEACON). We compared medication use from 1474 patients with Barrett’s esophagus separately with two control groups: 2256 population-based controls and 2018 gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) controls. Study-specific odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models and were combined using a random effects meta-analytic model.

RESULTS: Regular (at least once weekly) use of any NSAIDs was not associated with the risk of Barrett’s esophagus (vs. population-based controls, adjusted OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.76–1.32; I2=61%; vs. GERD controls, adjusted OR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.82–1.19; I2=19%). Similar null findings were observed among individuals who took aspirin or non-aspirin NSAIDs. We also found no association with highest levels of frequency (at least daily use) and duration (≥5 years) of NSAID use. There was evidence of moderate between-study heterogeneity; however, associations with NSAID use remained non-significant in “leave-one-out” sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Use of NSAIDs was not associated with the risk of Barrett’s esophagus. The previously reported inverse association between NSAID use and esophageal adenocarcinoma may be through reducing the risk of neoplastic progression in patients with Barrett’s esophagus.