Time-lapse monitoring of fluid induced geophysical property variations within an unstable earthwork using P-wave refraction

A significant portion of the UK’s transportation system relies on a network of geotechnical earthworks (cuttings and embankments) that were constructed more than 100 years ago, whose stability is affected by the change in precipitation patterns experienced over the past few decades. The vulnerability of these structures requires a reliable, cost- and time-effective monitoring of their geomechanical condition. We have assessed the potential application of P-wave refraction for tracking the seasonal variations of seismic properties within an aged clay-filled railway embankment, located in southwest England. Seismic data were acquired repeatedly along the crest of the earthwork at regular time intervals, for a total period of 16 months. P-wave first-break times were picked from all available recorded traces, to obtain a set of hodocrones referenced to the same spatial locations, for various dates along the surveyed period of time. Traveltimes extracted from each acquisition were then compared to track the pattern of their temporal variability. The relevance of such variations over time was compared with the data experimental uncertainty. The multiple set of hodocrones was subsequently inverted using a tomographic approach, to retrieve a time-lapse model of VPVP for the embankment structure. To directly compare the reconstructed VPVP sections, identical initial models and spatial regularization were used for the inversion of all available data sets. A consistent temporal trend for P-wave traveltimes, and consequently for the reconstructed VPVP models, was identified. This pattern could be related to the seasonal distribution of precipitation and soil-water content measured on site.

Property and Emotions

Relatively little has been written on the connection between property and emotions from a legal perspective, despite the centrality of property in everyday life and the complex relationships that exist between owners and their property. Scholars working in other disciplines have analyzed these links, identifying ‘proprietary’ emotions and corresponding emotional traits. However, little has been mapped onto the field of law. This paper looks at key emotions surrounding property as identified in psychological and, to a lesser extent, sociological literature. After mapping these onto selected areas of property law, it posits the need for a deeper and more collective field of inquiry.

Contracts for the Sale of Land: Understanding the Impecuniosity Defence

Where either the seller or buyer of landed property fails to complete a contract to sell land the non-breaching party has a right to seek specific performance of the contract. This remedy would compel the party in default to perform the contract on pain of being held in contempt of court if the court's order is not obeyed. The defaulting party would not be able to satisfy its obligations under the law by paying a sum of money as damages for breach of contract. This paper considers the impecuniosity defence to specific performance as recognised by courts in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. Where the buyer demonstrates that he or she simply cannot raise the funds to buy the property specific performance will not be decreed and the court will make an award of damages for breach of contract measured by the difference between the contract price and the market price of the property at the time of default. The paper considers the nature and parameters of this defence and how it differs (if at all) from the alternative defence of extreme hardship. The paper addresses the question of whether it might be better to move to a position where sellers of land in all cases no longer enjoy a presumption of specific performance but have to demonstrate that the alternative remedy of damages is clearly inadequate. If this should be so the paper goes on to consider whether abolition of the presumption in favour of specific performance for sellers should lead to abolition of the presumption of specific performance for buyers, as is the position in Canada following the Supreme Court's decision in Semelhago v Paramadevan [1996] 2 SCR 415.

Distribution of Childhood Health Indices: Associations with Moves along the "Property Ladder"

Background
Childhood deprivation is a major risk to public health. Poor health in the early years accumulates and is expressed in adult health inequalities. The importance of social mobility - moves into and out of poverty or, indeed, change in relative affluence - for child wellbeing is less well understood. Home ownership and house value may serve as a useful measure of relative affluence and deprivation.
Method
Analysis of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study dataset focused on cohort members aged 18 and under at the 2001 census and their families. Using housing tenure and house value reported in 2001 and 2011, moves along the “housing ladder” over ten years were identified. Outcome measures were physical disability and mental health status as reported in 2011. Logistic regression models tested if health outcomes varied by upward and downward changes in house value.
Results
After controlling for variations in age, sex, general health and social class, mental health is worse among those who moved to a lower value house. Compared to ‘no change’, those moving from the upper quintile of house value into social renting accommodation were almost six times more likely to report poor mental health (OR 5.90 95% CI 4.52, 7.70). Conversely, those experiencing the greatest upward movement were half as likely to report poor mental health (OR 0.46 95% CI 0.31, 0.68). There were smaller associations between physical health and downward (OR 2.66 95% CI 2.16, 3.27), and upward (OR 0.75 95% CI 0.61, 0.92) moves.
Conclusion
Poor mental health is more strongly associated with declines in living standards than with improvements. The gradient appears at multiple points along this proxy affluence-deprivation spectrum, not only at the extremes. Further research should explore whether circumstances surrounding moves, or change in social position explains the differential association between the health correlates of upward versus downward mobility.

Modelling mortality: Are we heading in the right direction?

Predicting life expectancy has become of upmost importance in society. Pension providers, insurance companies, government bodies and individuals in the developed world have a vested interest in understanding how long people will live for. This desire to better understand life expectancy has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models many of which identify linear trends in mortality rates by time. In making use of such models for forecasting purposes we rely on the assumption that the direction of the linear trend (determined from the data used for fitting purposes) will not change in the future, recent literature has started to question this assumption. In this paper we carry out a comprehensive investigation of these types of models using male and female data from 30 countries and using the theory of structural breaks to identify changes in the extracted trends by time. We find that structural breaks are present in a substantial number of cases, that they are more prevalent in male data than in female data, that the introduction of additional period factors into the model reduces their presence, and that allowing for changes in the trend improves the fit and forecast substantially.