Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Biogeography, macroecology and species’ traits mediate competitive interactions in the order Lagomorpha

1. In addition to abiotic determinants, biotic factors, including competitive, interspecific interactions, limit species’ distributions. Environmental changes in human disturbance, land use and climate are predicted to have widespread impacts on interactions between species, especially in the order Lagomorpha due to the higher latitudes and more extreme environmental conditions they occupy.
2. We reviewed the published literature on interspecific interactions in the order Lagomorpha, and compared the biogeography, macroecology, phylogeny and traits of species known to interact with those of species with no reported interactions, to investigate how projected future environmental change may affect interactions and potentially alter species’ distributions.
3. Thirty-three lagomorph species have competitive interactions reported in the literature; the majority involve hares (Lepus sp.) or the eastern cottontail rabbit (Sylvilagus floridanus). Key regions for interactions are located between 30-50°N of the Equator, and include eastern Asia (southern Russia on the border of Mongolia) and North America (north western USA).
4. Closely related, large-bodied, similarly sized species occurring in regions of human-modified, typically agricultural landscapes, or at high elevations are significantly more likely to have reported competitive interactions than other lagomorph species.
5. We identify species’ traits associated with competitive interactions, and highlight some potential impacts that future environmental change may have on interspecific interactions. Our approach using bibliometric and biological data is widely applicable, and with relatively straightforward methodologies, can provide insights into interactions between species.
6. Our results have implications for predicting species’ responses to global change, and we advise that capturing, parameterizing and incorporating interspecific interactions into analyses (for example, species distribution modelling) may be more important than suggested by the literature.

High-order harmonic generation from controlled plasma mirrors

Ultrashort, high contrast laser pulses when focused to high intensity and reflected from a steep solid density 'plasma mirror (PM)' contain coherent XUV radiation in the form of high-order harmonics. The emission can either be due to the relativistically driven oscillating PM (ROM) [1] or due to Coherent wake emission (CWE) [2]. Selective control over the mechanisms and the characteristics of these harmonics and understanding the physics is crucial for the development of intense attosecond light sources. © 2013 IEEE.

Blind Characterisation of Sensors with Second-Order Dynamic Response

Compensation for the dynamic response of a temperature sensor usually involves the estimation of its input on the basis of the measured output and model parameters. In the case of temperature measurement, the sensor dynamic response is strongly dependent on the measurement environment and fluid velocity. Estimation of time-varying sensor model parameters therefore requires continuous textit{in situ} identification. This can be achieved by employing two sensors with different dynamic properties, and exploiting structural redundancy to deduce the sensor models from the resulting data streams. Most existing approaches to this problem assume first-order sensor dynamics. In practice, however second-order models are more reflective of the dynamics of real temperature sensors, particularly when they are encased in a protective sheath. As such, this paper presents a novel difference equation approach to solving the blind identification problem for sensors with second-order models. The approach is based on estimating an auxiliary ARX model whose parameters are related to the desired sensor model parameters through a set of coupled non-linear algebraic equations. The ARX model can be estimated using conventional system identification techniques and the non-linear equations can be solved analytically to yield estimates of the sensor models. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach under various input and parameter conditions.

Local order and frustration in the geometrically frustrated spinels Cd1-xZnxV2O4

Orbitally degenerate frustrated spinels, Cd1-xZnxV2O4, with 0 <= x <= 1 were investigated using elastic and inelastic neutron scattering techniques. In the end members with x=0 and 1, a tetragonal distortion (c < a) has been observed upon cooling mediated by a Jahn-Teller distortion that gives rise to orbital ordering. This leads to the formation of spin chains in the ab-plane that upon further cooling, Neel ordering is established due to interchain coupling. In the doped compositions, however, the bulk susceptibility, chi, shows that the macroscopic transitions to cooperative orbital ordering and long-range antiferromagnetic ordering are suppressed. However, the inelastic neutron scattering measurements suggest that the dynamic spin correlations at low temperatures have similar one-dimensional characteristics as those observed in the pure samples. The pair density function analysis of neutron diffraction data shows that the local atomic structure does not become random with doping but rather consists of two distinct environments corresponding to ZnV2O4 and CdV2O4. This indicates that short-range orbital ordering is present which leads to the one-dimensional character of the spin correlations even in the low temperature cubic phase of the doped compositions.

Automatic extraction of reduced-order models from CFD simulations for building energy modelling

Accurate modelling of the internal climate of buildings is essential if Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) are to efficiently maintain adequate thermal comfort. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are usually utilised to predict internal climate. Nevertheless CFD models, although providing the necessary level of accuracy, are highly computationally expensive, and cannot practically be integrated in BEMS. This paper presents and describes validation of a CFD-ROM method for real-time simulations of building thermal performance. The CFD-ROM method involves the automatic extraction and solution of reduced order models (ROMs) from validated CFD simulations. ROMs are shown to be adequately accurate with a total error below 5% and to retain satisfactory representation of the phenomena modelled. Each ROM has a time to solution under 20seconds, which opens the potential of their integration with BEMS, giving real-time physics-based building energy modelling. A parameter study was conducted to investigate the applicability of the extracted ROM to initial boundary conditions different from those from which it was extracted. The results show that the ROMs retained satisfactory total errors when the initial conditions in the room were varied by ±5°C. This allows the production of a finite number of ROMs with the ability to rapidly model many possible scenarios.

DOMINANCE OF SHORT-RANGE-ORDER EFFECTS IN LOW-ENERGY ELECTRON-DIFFRACTION INTENSITY SPECTRA

Using low-energy electron-diffraction (LEED) formalism, we demonstrate theoretically that LEED I-V spectra are characterized mainly by short-range order. We also show experimentally that diffuse LEED (DLEED) I-V spectra can be accurately measured from a disordered system using a video-LEED system even at very low coverage. These spectra demonstrate that experimental DLEED I-V spectra from disordered systems may be used to determine local structures. As an example, it is shown that experimental DLEED I-V spectra from K/Co {1010BAR} at potassium coverages of 0.07, 0.1, and 0.13 monolayer closely resemble calculated and experimental LEED I-V spectra for a well-ordered Co{1010BAR}-c(2X2)-K superstructure, leading to the conclusion that at low coverages, potassium atoms are located in the fourfold-hollow sites and that there is no large bond-length change with coverage.

Secure Transmission in MIMO Wiretap Channels Using General-Order Transmit Antenna Selection with Outdated CSI

In this paper, we propose general-order transmit antenna selection to enhance the secrecy performance of multiple-input–multiple-output multieavesdropper channels with outdated channel state information (CSI) at the transmitter. To evaluate the effect of the outdated CSI on the secure transmission of the system, we investigate the secrecy performance for two practical scenarios, i.e., Scenarios I and II, where the eavesdropper's CSI is not available at the transmitter and is available at the transmitter, respectively. For Scenario I, we derive exact and asymptotic closed-form expressions for the secrecy outage probability in Nakagami- m fading channels. In addition, we also derive the probability of nonzero secrecy capacity and the \varepsilon -outage secrecy capacity, respectively. Simple asymptotic expressions for the secrecy outage probability reveal that the secrecy diversity order is reduced when the CSI is outdated at the transmitter, and it is independent of the number of antennas at each eavesdropper N_text\rm{E} , the fading parameter of the eavesdropper's channel m_text\rm{E} , and the number of eavesdroppers M . For Scenario II, we make a comprehensive analysis of the average secrecy capacity obtained by the system. Specifically, new closed-form expressions for the exact and asymptotic average secrecy capacity are derived, which are valid for general systems with an arbitrary number of antennas, number of eavesdroppers, and fading severity parameters. Resorting to these results, we also determine a high signal-to-noise ratio power offset to explicitly quantify the impact of the main c- annel and the eavesdropper's channel on the average secrecy capacity.

Quantum control of photodissociation using intense, femtosecond pulses shaped with third order dispersion

We demonstrate the ability to control the molecular dissociation rate using femtosecond pulses shaped with third-order dispersion (TOD). Explicitly, a significant 50% enhancement in the dissociation yield for the low lying vibrational levels (v ∼ 6) of an H+2 ion-beam target was measured as a function of TOD. The underlying mechanism responsible for this enhanced dissociation was theoretically identified as non-adiabatic alignment induced by the pre-pulses situated on the leading edge of pulses shaped with negative TOD. This control scheme is expected to work in other molecules as it does not rely on specific characteristics of our test-case H+2 molecule.