On the Multivariate Gamma-Gamma (ΓΓ) Distribution with Arbitrary Correlation and Applications in Wireless Communications

The statistical properties of the multivariate GammaGamma (ΓΓ) distribution with arbitrary correlation have remained unknown. In this paper, we provide analytical expressions for the joint probability density function (PDF), cumulative distribution function (CDF) and moment generation function of the multivariate ΓΓ distribution with arbitrary correlation. Furthermore, we present novel approximating expressions for the PDF and CDF of the su m of ΓΓ random variables with arbitrary correlation. Based on this statistical analysis, we investigate the performance of radio frequency and optical wireless communication systems. It is noteworthy that the presented expressions include several previous results in the literature as special cases.

Slow Release Drug Dissolution Profile Prediction in Pharmaceutical Manufacturing: a Multivariate and Machine Learning Approach

Slow release drugs must be manufactured to meet target specifications with respect to dissolution curve profiles. In this paper we consider the problem of identifying the drivers of dissolution curve variability of a drug from historical manufacturing data. Several data sources are considered: raw material parameters, coating data, loss on drying and pellet size statistics. The methodology employed is to develop predictive models using LASSO, a powerful machine learning algorithm for regression with high-dimensional datasets. LASSO provides sparse solutions facilitating the identification of the most important causes of variability in the drug fabrication process. The proposed methodology is illustrated using manufacturing data for a slow release drug.

Evaluation of the Retinal Vasculature in Hypertension and Chronic Kidney Disease in an elderly population of Irish nuns

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and hypertension are global public health problems associated with considerable morbidity, premature mortality and attendant healthcare costs. Previous studies have highlighted that non-invasive examination of the retinal microcirculation can detect microvascular pathology that is associated with systemic disorders of the circulatory system such as hypertension. We examined the associations between retinal vessel caliber (RVC) and fractal dimension (DF), with both hypertension and CKD in elderly Irish nuns.

Methods: Data from 1233 participants in the cross-sectional observational Irish Nun Eye Study (INES) were assessed from digital photographs with a standardized protocol using computer-assisted software. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess associations with hypertension and CKD, with adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), refraction, fellow eye RVC, smoking, alcohol consumption, ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular accident (CVA), diabetes and medication use.

Results: In total, 1122 (91%) participants (mean age: 76.3 [range: 56-100] years) had gradable retinal images of sufficient quality for blood vessel assessment. Hypertension was significantly associated with a narrower central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) in a fully adjusted analysis (P = 0.002; effect size= -2.16 μm; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: -3.51, -0.81 μm). No significant associations between other retinal vascular parameters and hypertension or between any retinal vascular parameters and CKD were found.

Conclusions: Individuals with hypertension have significantly narrower retinal arterioles which may afford an earlier opportunity for tailored prevention and treatment options to optimize the structure and function of the microvasculature, providing additional clinical utility. No significant associations between retinal vascular parameters and CKD were detected.

The determination of optimal processing conditions for PLA and PLA/CaCO3 in twin screw extrusion using DoE and multivariate analysis

Biodegradable polymers, such as PLA (Polylactide), come from renewable resources like corn starch and if disposed of correctly, degrade and become harmless to the ecosystem making them attractive alternatives to petroleum based polymers. PLA in particular is used in a variety of applications including medical devices, food packaging and waste disposal packaging. However, the industry faces challenges in melt processing of PLA due to its poor thermal stability which is influenced by processing temperatures and shearing.
Identification and control of suitable processing conditions is extremely challenging, usually relying on trial and error, and often sensitive to batch to batch variations. Off-line assessment in a lab environment can result in high scrap rates, long lead times and lengthy and expensive process development. Scrap rates are typically in the region of 25-30% for medical grade PLA costing between €2000-€5000/kg.
Additives are used to enhance material properties such as mechanical properties and may also have a therapeutic role in the case of bioresorbable medical devices, for example the release of calcium from orthopaedic implants such as fixation screws promotes healing. Additives can also reduce the costs involved as less of the polymer resin is required.
This study investigates the scope for monitoring, modelling and optimising processing conditions for twin screw extrusion of PLA and PLA w/calcium carbonate to achieve desired material properties. A DAQ system has been constructed to gather data from a bespoke measurement die comprising melt temperature; pressure drop along the length of the die; and UV-Vis spectral data which is shown to correlate to filler dispersion. Trials were carried out under a range of processing conditions using a Design of Experiments approach and samples were tested for mechanical properties, degradation rate and the release rate of calcium. Relationships between recorded process data and material characterisation results are explored.

Simulating reinforced concrete members. Part 2: displacement-based analyses

A companion paper described the partial-interaction localised properties that require the development of pseudo properties. If the quantification through experimental testing of these pseudo properties could be removed by the use of mechanics-based models, which is the subject of this paper, then this would: (a) substantially reduce the cost of developing new reinforced concrete products by reducing the amount of testing; (b) increase the accuracy of designing existing and novel reinforced concrete members and structures, bearing in mind that experimentally derived pseudo properties are only applicable within the range of the testing from which they were derived; and (c) reduce the cost and increase the accuracy of developing reinforced concrete design rules. This paper deals with the development of pseudo properties and behaviours directly through mechanics, as opposed to experimental testing, and their incorporation into member global simulations. It also addresses the need for a fundamental shift to displacement-based analyses as opposed to strain-based analyses.

Adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in early breast cancer: meta-analyses of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates have profound effects on bone physiology, and could modify the process of metastasis. We undertook collaborative meta-analyses to clarify the risks and benefits of adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in breast cancer.

METHODS: We sought individual patient data from all unconfounded trials in early breast cancer that randomised between bisphosphonate and control. Primary outcomes were recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer mortality. Primary subgroup investigations were site of first distant recurrence (bone or other), menopausal status (postmenopausal [combining natural and artificial] or not), and bisphosphonate class (aminobisphosphonate [eg, zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate] or other [ie, clodronate]). Intention-to-treat log-rank methods yielded bisphosphonate versus control first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: We received data on 18 766 women (18 206 [97%] in trials of 2-5 years of bisphosphonate) with median follow-up 5·6 woman-years, 3453 first recurrences, and 2106 subsequent deaths. Overall, the reductions in recurrence (RR 0·94, 95% CI 0·87-1·01; 2p=0·08), distant recurrence (0·92, 0·85-0·99; 2p=0·03), and breast cancer mortality (0·91, 0·83-0·99; 2p=0·04) were of only borderline significance, but the reduction in bone recurrence was more definite (0·83, 0·73-0·94; 2p=0·004). Among premenopausal women, treatment had no apparent effect on any outcome, but among 11 767 postmenopausal women it produced highly significant reductions in recurrence (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·94; 2p=0·002), distant recurrence (0·82, 0·74-0·92; 2p=0·0003), bone recurrence (0·72, 0·60-0·86; 2p=0·0002), and breast cancer mortality (0·82, 0·73-0·93; 2p=0·002). Even for bone recurrence, however, the heterogeneity of benefit was barely significant by menopausal status (2p=0·06 for trend with menopausal status) or age (2p=0·03), and it was non-significant by bisphosphonate class, treatment schedule, oestrogen receptor status, nodes, tumour grade, or concomitant chemotherapy. No differences were seen in non-breast cancer mortality. Bone fractures were reduced (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75-0·97; 2p=0·02).

INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant bisphosphonates reduce the rate of breast cancer recurrence in the bone and improve breast cancer survival, but there is definite benefit only in women who were postmenopausal when treatment began.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-analyses of Randomised Controlled Trials: Guidance on Their Use

Jayne Tierney and colleagues offer guidance on how to spot a well-designed and well-conducted individual participant data meta-analysis.

Summary Points 

• Systematic reviews are most commonly based on aggregate data extracted from publications or obtained from trial investigators. 

• Systematic reviews involving the central collection and analysis of individual participant data (IPD) usually are larger-scale, international, collaborative projects that can bring about substantial improvements to the quantity and quality of data, give greater scope in the analyses, and provide more detailed and robust results. 

• The process of collecting, checking, and analysing IPD is more complex than for aggregate data, and not all IPD meta-analyses are done to the same standard, making it difficult for researchers, clinicians, patients, policy makers, funders, and publishers to judge their quality. 

• Following our step-by-step guide will help reviewers and users of IPD meta-analyses to understand them better and recognise those that are well designed and conducted and so help ensure that policy, practice, and research are informed by robust evidence about the effects of interventions.

How individual participant data meta-analyses have influenced trial design, conduct, and analysis

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate how individual participant data (IPD) meta-analyses have impacted directly on the design and conduct of trials and highlight other advantages IPD might offer.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Potential examples of the impact of IPD meta-analyses on trials were identified at an international workshop, attended by individuals with experience in the conduct of IPD meta-analyses and knowledge of trials in their respective clinical areas. Experts in the field who did not attend were asked to provide any further examples. We then examined relevant trial protocols, publications, and Web sites to verify the impacts of the IPD meta-analyses. A subgroup of workshop attendees sought further examples and identified other aspects of trial design and conduct that may inform IPD meta-analyses.

RESULTS: We identified 52 examples of IPD meta-analyses thought to have had a direct impact on the design or conduct of trials. After screening relevant trial protocols and publications, we identified 28 instances where IPD meta-analyses had clearly impacted on trials. They have influenced the selection of comparators and participants, sample size calculations, analysis and interpretation of subsequent trials, and the conduct and analysis of ongoing trials, sometimes in ways that would not possible with systematic reviews of aggregate data. We identified additional potential ways that IPD meta-analyses could be used to influence trials.

CONCLUSIONS: IPD meta-analysis could be better used to inform the design, conduct, analysis, and interpretation of trials.

Quality of reporting of dental survival analyses

To explore the quality of reporting (writing and graphics) of articles that used time-to-event analyses to report dental treatment outcomes. A systematic search of the top 50 dental journals in 2008 produced the sample of articles for this analysis. Articles reporting treatment outcomes with (n = 95) and without (n = 91) time-to-event statistics were reviewed. Survival descriptive words used in the two groups were analysed (Pearson's chi-square). The quality of life tables, survival curves and time-to-event statistics were assessed (Kappa analysed agreement) and explored. Words describing dental outcomes 'over time' were more common in time-to-event compared with control articles (77%, 3%, P < 0.001). Non-specific use of 'rate' was common across both groups. Life tables and survival curves were used by 39% and 48% of the time-to-event articles, with at least one used by 82%. Construction quality was poor: 21% of life tables and 28% of survival curves achieved an acceptable standard. Time-to-event statistical reporting was poor: 3% achieved a high and 59% achieved an acceptable standard. The survival statistic, summary figure and standard error were reported in 76%, 95% and 20% of time-to-event articles. Individual statistical terms and graphic aids were common within and unique to time-to-event articles. Unfortunately, important details were regularly omitted from statistical descriptions and survival figures making the overall quality poor. It is likely this will mean such articles will be incorrectly indexed in databases, missed by searchers and unable to be understood completely if identified.

Accuracy of medical subject heading indexing of dental survival analyses

PURPOSE: To assess the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) indexing of articles that employed time-to-event analyses to report outcomes of dental treatment in patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: Articles published in 2008 in 50 dental journals with the highest impact factors were hand searched to identify articles reporting dental treatment outcomes over time in human subjects with time-to-event statistics (included, n = 95), without time-to-event statistics (active controls, n = 91), and all other articles (passive controls, n = 6,769). The search was systematic (kappa 0.92 for screening, 0.86 for eligibility). Outcome-, statistic- and time-related MeSH were identified, and differences in allocation between groups were analyzed with chi-square and Fischer exact statistics.

RESULTS: The most frequently allocated MeSH for included and active control articles were "dental restoration failure" (77% and 52%, respectively) and "treatment outcome" (54% and 48%, respectively). Outcome MeSH was similar between these groups (86% and 77%, respectively) and significantly greater than passive controls (10%, P < .001). Significantly more statistical MeSH were allocated to the included articles than to the active or passive controls (67%, 15%, and 1%, respectively, P < .001). Sixty-nine included articles specifically used Kaplan-Meier or life table analyses, but only 42% (n = 29) were indexed as such. Significantly more time-related MeSH were allocated to the included than the active controls (92% and 79%, respectively, P = .02), or to the passive controls (22%, P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS: MeSH allocation within MEDLINE to time-to-event dental articles was inaccurate and inconsistent. Statistical MeSH were omitted from 30% of the included articles and incorrectly allocated to 15% of active controls. Such errors adversely impact search accuracy.

Will your article be found? Authors choose a confusing variety of words to describe dental survival analyses

OBJECTIVES: Identify the words and phrases that authors used to describe time-to-event outcomes of dental treatments in patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic handsearch of 50 dental journals with the highest Citation Index for 2008 identified articles reporting dental treatment with time-to-event statistics (included "case" articles, n = 95), without time-to-event statistics (active "control" articles, n = 91), and all other articles (passive "control" articles n = 6796). The included and active controls were read, identifying 43 English words across the title, aim and abstract, indicating that outcomes were studied over time. Once identified, these words were sought within the 6796 passive controls. Words were divided into six groups. Differences in use of words were analyzed with Pearson's chi-square across these six groups, and the three locations (title, aim, and abstract).

RESULTS: In the abstracts, included articles used group 1 (statistical technique) and group 2 (statistical terms) more frequently than the active and passive controls (group 1: 35%, 2%, 0.37%, P < 0.001 and group 2: 31%, 1%, 0.06%, P < 0.001). The included and active controls used group 3 (quasi-statistical) equally, but significantly more often than the passive controls (82%, 78%, 3.21%, P < 0.001). In the aims, use of target words was similar for included and active controls, but less frequent for groups 1-4 in the passive controls (P < 0.001). In the title, group 2 (statistical techniques) and groups 3-5 (outcomes) were similar for included and active controls, but groups 2 and 3 were less frequent in the passive controls (P < 0.001). Significantly more included articles used group 6 words (stating the study duration) (54%, 30%, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION: All included articles used time-to-event analyses, but two-thirds did not include words to highlight this in the abstract. There is great variation in the words authors used to describe dental time-to-event outcomes. Electronic identification of such articles would be inconsistent, with low sensitivity and specificity. Authors should improve the reporting quality. Journals should allow sufficient space in abstracts to summarize research, and not impose unrealistic word limits. Readers should be mindful of these problems when searching for relevant articles. Additional research is required in this field.

Accumulating research: a systematic account of how cumulative meta-analyses would have provided knowledge, improved health, reduced harm and saved resources

BACKGROUND: "Cumulative meta-analysis" describes a statistical procedure to calculate, retrospectively, summary estimates from the results of similar trials every time the results of a further trial in the series had become available. In the early 1990 s, comparisons of cumulative meta-analyses of treatments for myocardial infarction with advice promulgated through medical textbooks showed that research had continued long after robust estimates of treatment effects had accumulated, and that medical textbooks had overlooked strong, existing evidence from trials. Cumulative meta-analyses have subsequently been used to assess what could have been known had new studies been informed by systematic reviews of relevant existing evidence and how waste might have been reduced.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a systematic approach to identify and summarise the findings of cumulative meta-analyses of studies of the effects of clinical interventions, published from 1992 to 2012. Searches were done of PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Methodology Register and Science Citation Index. A total of 50 eligible reports were identified, including more than 1,500 cumulative meta-analyses. A variety of themes are illustrated with specific examples. The studies showed that initially positive results became null or negative in meta-analyses as more trials were done; that early null or negative results were over-turned; that stable results (beneficial, harmful and neutral) would have been seen had a meta-analysis been done before the new trial; and that additional trials had been much too small to resolve the remaining uncertainties.

CONCLUSIONS: This large, unique collection of cumulative meta-analyses highlights how a review of the existing evidence might have helped researchers, practitioners, patients and funders make more informed decisions and choices about new trials over decades of research. This would have led to earlier uptake of effective interventions in practice, less exposure of trial participants to less effective treatments, and reduced waste resulting from unjustified research.

Influence of sex on the survival of patients with esophageal cancer

PURPOSE: The prognostic value of sex for esophageal cancer survival is currently unclear, and growing data suggest that hormonal influences may account for incidence disparities between men and women. Therefore, moving from the hypothesis that hormones could affect the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer, we investigated the primary hypothesis that sex is associated with survival and the secondary hypotheses that the relationship between sex and survival depends, at least in part, on age, histology, and race/ethnicity.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: By using the SEER databases from 1973 to 2007, we identified 13,603 patients (34%) with metastatic esophageal cancer (MEC) and 26,848 patients (66%) with locoregional esophageal cancer (LEC). Cox proportional hazards model for competing risks were used for analyses.

RESULTS: In the multivariate analysis, women had longer esophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) than men in both MEC (hazard ratio [HR], 0.949; 95% CI, 0.905 to 0.995; P = .029) and LEC (HR, 0.920; 95% CI, 0.886 to 0.955; P < .001) cohorts. When age and histology were accounted for, there was no difference for ECSS between men and women with adenocarcinoma. In contrast, women younger than age 55 years (HR, 0.896; 95% CI, 0.792 to 1.014; P = .081) and those age 55 years or older (HR, 0.905; 95% CI, 0.862 to 0.950; P < .001) with squamous cell LEC had longer ECSS than men. In the squamous cell MEC cohort, only women younger than age 55 years had longer ECSS (HR, 0.823; 95% CI, 0.708 to 0.957; P = .011) than men.

CONCLUSION: Sex is an independent prognostic factor for patients with LEC or MEC. As secondary hypotheses, in comparison with men, women age 55 years or older with squamous cell LEC and women younger than age 55 years with squamous cell MEC have a significantly better outcome. These last two findings need further validation.