Impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular events and mortality among older adults: meta-analysis of individual participant data from prospective cohort studies of the CHANCES consortium

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of smoking and smoking cessation on cardiovascular mortality, acute coronary events, and stroke events in people aged 60 and older, and to calculate and report risk advancement periods for cardiovascular mortality in addition to traditional epidemiological relative risk measures.

DESIGN: Individual participant meta-analysis using data from 25 cohorts participating in the CHANCES consortium. Data were harmonised, analysed separately employing Cox proportional hazard regression models, and combined by meta-analysis.

RESULTS: Overall, 503,905 participants aged 60 and older were included in this study, of whom 37,952 died from cardiovascular disease. Random effects meta-analysis of the association of smoking status with cardiovascular mortality yielded a summary hazard ratio of 2.07 (95% CI 1.82 to 2.36) for current smokers and 1.37 (1.25 to 1.49) for former smokers compared with never smokers. Corresponding summary estimates for risk advancement periods were 5.50 years (4.25 to 6.75) for current smokers and 2.16 years (1.38 to 2.39) for former smokers. The excess risk in smokers increased with cigarette consumption in a dose-response manner, and decreased continuously with time since smoking cessation in former smokers. Relative risk estimates for acute coronary events and for stroke events were somewhat lower than for cardiovascular mortality, but patterns were similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study corroborates and expands evidence from previous studies in showing that smoking is a strong independent risk factor of cardiovascular events and mortality even at older age, advancing cardiovascular mortality by more than five years, and demonstrating that smoking cessation in these age groups is still beneficial in reducing the excess risk.

Optical and near-infrared observations of SN 2011dh - The first 100 days

We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh for the first 100 days. We complement our extensive dataset with Swift ultra-violet (UV) and Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data to build a UV to MIR bolometric lightcurve using both photometric and spectroscopic data. Hydrodynamical modelling of the SN based on this bolometric lightcurve have been presented in Bersten et al. (2012, ApJ, 757, 31). We find that the absorption minimum for the hydrogen lines is never seen below ~11 000 km s-1 but approaches this value as the lines get weaker. This suggests that the interface between the helium core and hydrogen rich envelope is located near this velocity in agreement with the Bersten et al. (2012) He4R270 ejecta model. Spectral modelling of the hydrogen lines using this ejecta model supports the conclusion and we find a hydrogen mass of 0.01-0.04 M⊙ to be consistent with the observed spectral evolution. We estimate that the photosphere reaches the helium core at 5-7 days whereas the helium lines appear between ~10 and ~15 days, close to the photosphere and then move outward in velocity until ~40 days. This suggests that increasing non-thermal excitation due to decreasing optical depth for the γ-rays is driving the early evolution of these lines. The Spitzer 4.5 μm band shows a significant flux excess, which we attribute to CO fundamental band emission or a thermal dust echo although further work using late time data is needed. Thedistance and in particular the extinction, where we use spectral modelling to put further constraints, is discussed in some detail as well as the sensitivity of the hydrodynamical modelling to errors in these quantities. We also provide and discuss pre- and post-explosion observations of the SN site which shows a reduction by ~75 percent in flux at the position of the yellow supergiant coincident with SN 2011dh. The B, V and r band decline rates of 0.0073, 0.0090 and 0.0053 mag day-1 respectively are consistent with the remaining flux being emitted by the SN. Hence we find that the star was indeed the progenitor of SN 2011dh as previously suggested by Maund et al. (2011, ApJ, 739, L37) and which is also consistent with the results from the hydrodynamical modelling. Figures 2, 3, Tables 3-10, and Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgThe photometric tables are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/562/A17

Selection of burst-like transients and stochastic variables using multi-brand image differencing in the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey

We present a novel method for the light-curve characterization of Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey (PS1 MDS) extragalactic sources into stochastic variables (SVs) and burst-like (BL) transients, using multi-band image-differencing time-series data. We select detections in difference images associated with galaxy hosts using a star/galaxy catalog extracted from the deep PS1 MDS stacked images, and adopt a maximum a posteriori formulation to model their difference-flux time-series in four Pan-STARRS1 photometric bands gP1, rP1, iP1, and zP1. We use three deterministic light-curve models to fit BL transients; a Gaussian, a Gamma distribution, and an analytic supernova (SN) model, and one stochastic light-curve model, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, in order to fit variability that is characteristic of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We assess the quality of fit of the models band-wise and source-wise, using their estimated leave-out-one cross-validation likelihoods and corrected Akaike information criteria. We then apply a K-means clustering algorithm on these statistics, to determine the source classification in each band. The final source classification is derived as a combination of the individual filter classifications, resulting in two measures of classification quality, from the averages across the photometric filters of (1) the classifications determined from the closest K-means cluster centers, and (2) the square distances from the clustering centers in the K-means clustering spaces. For a verification set of AGNs and SNe, we show that SV and BL occupy distinct regions in the plane constituted by these measures. We use our clustering method to characterize 4361 extragalactic image difference detected sources, in the first 2.5 yr of the PS1 MDS, into 1529 BL, and 2262 SV, with a purity of 95.00% for AGNs, and 90.97% for SN based on our verification sets. We combine our light-curve classifications with their nuclear or off-nuclear host galaxy offsets, to define a robust photometric sample of 1233 AGNs and 812 SNe. With these two samples, we characterize their variability and host galaxy properties, and identify simple photometric priors that would enable their real-time identification in future wide-field synoptic surveys.

Combining vitamin C and carotenoid biomarkers better predicts fruit and vegetable intake than individual biomarkers in dietary intervention studies

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether combining potential biomarkers of fruit and vegetables is better at predicting FV intake within FV intervention studies than single biomarkers.

DESIGN: Data from a tightly controlled randomised FV intervention study (BIOFAV; all food provided and two meals/day on weekdays consumed under supervision) were used. A total of 30 participants were randomised to either 2, 5 or 8 portions FV/day for 4 weeks, and blood samples were collected at baseline and 4 weeks for plasma vitamin C and serum carotenoid analysis. The combined biomarker approach was also tested in three further FV intervention studies conducted by the same research team, with less strict dietary control (FV provided and no supervised meals).

RESULTS: The combined model containing all carotenoids and vitamin C was a better fit than either the vitamin C only (P < 0.001) model or the lutein only (P = 0.006) model in the BIOFAV study. The C-statistic was slightly lower in the lutein only model (0.85) and in the model based upon factor analysis (0.88), and much lower in the vitamin C model (0.68) compared with the full model (0.95). Results for the other studies were similar, although the differences between the models were less marked.

CONCLUSIONS: Although there was some variation between studies, which may relate to the level of dietary control or participant characteristics, a combined biomarker approach to assess overall FV consumption may more accurately predict FV intake within intervention studies than the use of a single biomarker. The generalisability of these findings to other populations and study designs remains to be tested. 

Investigating Intra-individual Dietary Changes and Radiocarbon Ages Using High Resolution δ13C, δ15N Isotope Ratios and 14C Ages Obtained From Dentine Increments

Ten medieval permanent teeth were subjected to incremental dentine sectioning and stable isotope analysis to investigate dietary changes in high resolution. In addition to this, eight increments were also selected for 14C measurements to examine possible intra-individual age differences. Results reveal the cessation of weaning, various dietary profiles and in some cases significantly different 14C ages obtained from a single tooth. This case study illustrates how 14C measurements can function as a proxy alongside the commonly used carbon and nitrogen stable isotope values to interpret the diet of past individuals

Hydrogen-Poor Superluminous Supernovae and Long-Duration Gamma-Ray Bursts Have Similar Host Galaxies

We present optical spectroscopy and optical/near-IR photometry of 31 host galaxies of hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe), including 15 events from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey. Our sample spans the redshift range 0.1 ≲ z ≲ 1.6, and is the first comprehensive host galaxy study of this specific subclass of cosmic explosions. Combining the multi-band photometry and emission-line measurements, we determine the luminosities, stellar masses, star formation rates, and metallicities. We find that, as a whole, the hosts of SLSNe are a low-luminosity (〈M_B 〉 ≈ -17.3 mag), low stellar mass (〈M〉 ≈ 2 × 10⁸ M_⊙) population, with a high median specific star formation rate (〈sSFR〉 ≈ 2 Gyr^-1). The median metallicity of our spectroscopic sample is low, 12 + log (O/H) ≈ 8.35 ≈ 0.45 Z_⊙, although at least one host galaxy has solar metallicity. The host galaxies of H-poor SLSNe are statistically distinct from the hosts of GOODS core-collapse SNe (which cover a similar redshift range), but resemble the host galaxies of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (LGRBs) in terms of stellar mass, SFR, sSFR, and metallicity. This result indicates that the environmental causes leading to massive stars forming either SLSNe or LGRBs are similar, and in particular that SLSNe are more effectively formed in low metallicity environments. We speculate that the key ingredient is large core angular momentum, leading to a rapidly spinning magnetar in SLSNe and an accreting black hole in LGRBs.

PESSTO monitoring of SN 2012hn: further heterogeneity among faint Type I supernovae

We present optical and infrared monitoring data of SN 2012hn collectedby the Public European Southern Observatory Spectroscopic Survey forTransient Objects. We show that SN 2012hn has a faint peak magnitude(MR ˜ -15.65) and shows no hydrogen and no clearevidence for helium in its spectral evolution. Instead, we detectprominent Ca II lines at all epochs, which relates this transient topreviously described `Ca-rich' or `gap' transients. However, thephotospheric spectra (from -3 to +32 d with respect to peak) of SN2012hn show a series of absorption lines which are unique and a redcontinuum that is likely intrinsic rather than due to extinction. Linesof Ti II and Cr II are visible. This may be a temperature effect, whichcould also explain the red photospheric colour. A nebular spectrum at+150 d shows prominent Ca II, O I, C I and possibly Mg I lines whichappear similar in strength to those displayed by core-collapsesupernovae (SNe). To add to the puzzle, SN 2012hn is located at aprojected distance of 6 kpc from an E/S0 host and is not close to anyobvious star-forming region. Overall SN 2012hn resembles a group offaint H-poor SNe that have been discovered recently and for which aconvincing and consistent physical explanation is still missing. Theyall appear to explode preferentially in remote locations offset from amassive host galaxy with deep limits on any dwarf host galaxies,favouring old progenitor systems. SN 2012hn adds heterogeneity to thissample of objects. We discuss potential explosion channels includingHe-shell detonations and double detonations of white dwarfs as well aspeculiar core-collapse SNe.

The host galaxy and late-time evolution of the superluminous supernova PTF12dam

Superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) of Type Ic have a tendency to occur in faint host galaxies which are likely to have low mass and low metallicity. PTF12dam is one of the closest and best-studied superluminous explosions that has a broad and slowly fading light curve similar to SN 2007bi. Here we present new photometry and spectroscopy for PTF12dam from 200-500 d (rest frame) after peak and a detailed analysis of the host galaxy (SDSS J142446.21+461348.6 at z = 0.107). Using deep templates and image subtraction we show that the light curve can be fit with a magnetar model if escape of high-energy gamma rays is taken into account. The full bolometric light curve from -53 to +399 d (with respect to peak) cannot be fit satisfactorily with the pair-instability models. An alternative model of interaction with a dense circumstellar material (CSM) produces a good fit to the data although this requires a very large mass (˜13 M⊙) of hydrogen-free CSM. The host galaxy is a compact dwarf (physical size ˜1.9 kpc) and with Mg = -19.33 ± 0.10, it is the brightest nearby SLSN Ic host discovered so far. The host is a low-mass system (2.8 × 108 M⊙) with a star formation rate (5.0 M⊙ yr-1), which implies a very high specific star formation rate (17.9 Gyr-1). The remarkably strong nebular emission provide detections of the [O III] λ4363 and [O II] λλ7320, 7330auroral lines and an accurate oxygen abundance of 12 + log (O/H) = 8.05 ± 0.09. We show here that they are at the extreme end of the metallicity distribution of dwarf galaxies and propose that low metallicity is a requirement to produce these rare and peculiar SNe.

, Lexicographic Preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments: Consequences on Individual-Specific Willingness to Pay Estimates

In discrete choice experiments respondents are generally assumed to consider all of the attributes across each of the alternatives, and to choose their most preferred. However, results in this paper indicate that many respondents employ simplified lexicographic decision-making rules, whereby they have a ranking of the attributes, but their choice of an alternative is based solely on the level of their most important attribute(s). Not accounting for these simple decision-making heuristics introduces systemic errors and leads to biased point estimates, as they are a violation of the continuity axiom and a departure from the use of compensatory decision-making. In this paper the implications of lexicographic preferences are examined. In particular, using a mixed logit specification this paper investigates the sensitivity of individual-specific willingness to pay (WTP) estimates conditional on whether lexicographic decision-making rules are accounted for in the modelling of discrete choice responses. Empirical results are obtained from a discrete choice experiment that was carried out to address the value of a number of rural landscape attributes in Ireland

Duration-dependent effects of the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism on anodal tDCS induced motor cortex plasticity in older adults: a group and individual perspective

The brain derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) Val66Met polymorphism and stimulation duration are thought to play an important role in modulating motor cortex plasticity induced by non-invasive brain stimulation (NBS). In the present study we sought to determine whether these factors interact or exert independent effects in older adults. Fifty-four healthy older adults (mean age = 66.85 years) underwent two counterbalanced sessions of 1.5 mA anodal transcranial direct current stimulation (atDCS), applied over left M1 for either 10 or 20 min. Single pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was used to assess corticospinal excitability (CSE) before and every 5 min for 30 min following atDCS. On a group level, there was an interaction between stimulation duration and BDNF genotype, with Met carriers (n = 13) showing greater post-intervention potentiation of CSE compared to Val66Val homozygotes homozygotes (n = 37) following 20 min (p = 0.002) but not 10 min (p = 0.219) of stimulation. Moreover, Met carriers, but not Val/Val homozygotes, exhibited larger responses to TMS (p = 0.046) after 20 min atDCS, than following 10 min atDCS. On an individual level, two-step cluster analysis revealed a considerable degree of inter-individual variability, with under half of the total sample (42%) showing the expected potentiation of CSE in response to atDCS across both sessions. Intra-individual variability in response to different durations of atDCS was also apparent, with one-third of the total sample (34%) exhibiting LTP-like effects in one session but LTD-like effects in the other session. Both the inter-individual (p = 0.027) and intra-individual (p = 0.04) variability was associated with BDNF genotype. In older adults, the BDNF Val66Met polymorphism along with stimulation duration appears to play a role in modulating tDCS-induced motor cortex plasticity. The results may have implications for the design of NBS protocols for healthy and diseased aged populations.

Adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in early breast cancer: meta-analyses of individual patient data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND: Bisphosphonates have profound effects on bone physiology, and could modify the process of metastasis. We undertook collaborative meta-analyses to clarify the risks and benefits of adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment in breast cancer.

METHODS: We sought individual patient data from all unconfounded trials in early breast cancer that randomised between bisphosphonate and control. Primary outcomes were recurrence, distant recurrence, and breast cancer mortality. Primary subgroup investigations were site of first distant recurrence (bone or other), menopausal status (postmenopausal [combining natural and artificial] or not), and bisphosphonate class (aminobisphosphonate [eg, zoledronic acid, ibandronate, pamidronate] or other [ie, clodronate]). Intention-to-treat log-rank methods yielded bisphosphonate versus control first-event rate ratios (RRs).

FINDINGS: We received data on 18 766 women (18 206 [97%] in trials of 2-5 years of bisphosphonate) with median follow-up 5·6 woman-years, 3453 first recurrences, and 2106 subsequent deaths. Overall, the reductions in recurrence (RR 0·94, 95% CI 0·87-1·01; 2p=0·08), distant recurrence (0·92, 0·85-0·99; 2p=0·03), and breast cancer mortality (0·91, 0·83-0·99; 2p=0·04) were of only borderline significance, but the reduction in bone recurrence was more definite (0·83, 0·73-0·94; 2p=0·004). Among premenopausal women, treatment had no apparent effect on any outcome, but among 11 767 postmenopausal women it produced highly significant reductions in recurrence (RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·78-0·94; 2p=0·002), distant recurrence (0·82, 0·74-0·92; 2p=0·0003), bone recurrence (0·72, 0·60-0·86; 2p=0·0002), and breast cancer mortality (0·82, 0·73-0·93; 2p=0·002). Even for bone recurrence, however, the heterogeneity of benefit was barely significant by menopausal status (2p=0·06 for trend with menopausal status) or age (2p=0·03), and it was non-significant by bisphosphonate class, treatment schedule, oestrogen receptor status, nodes, tumour grade, or concomitant chemotherapy. No differences were seen in non-breast cancer mortality. Bone fractures were reduced (RR 0·85, 95% CI 0·75-0·97; 2p=0·02).

INTERPRETATION: Adjuvant bisphosphonates reduce the rate of breast cancer recurrence in the bone and improve breast cancer survival, but there is definite benefit only in women who were postmenopausal when treatment began.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-analyses of Randomised Controlled Trials: Guidance on Their Use

Jayne Tierney and colleagues offer guidance on how to spot a well-designed and well-conducted individual participant data meta-analysis.

Summary Points 

• Systematic reviews are most commonly based on aggregate data extracted from publications or obtained from trial investigators. 

• Systematic reviews involving the central collection and analysis of individual participant data (IPD) usually are larger-scale, international, collaborative projects that can bring about substantial improvements to the quantity and quality of data, give greater scope in the analyses, and provide more detailed and robust results. 

• The process of collecting, checking, and analysing IPD is more complex than for aggregate data, and not all IPD meta-analyses are done to the same standard, making it difficult for researchers, clinicians, patients, policy makers, funders, and publishers to judge their quality. 

• Following our step-by-step guide will help reviewers and users of IPD meta-analyses to understand them better and recognise those that are well designed and conducted and so help ensure that policy, practice, and research are informed by robust evidence about the effects of interventions.