Nonlinear numerical modelling of lightning strike effect on composite panels with temperature dependent material properties

This paper presents a physics based modelling procedure to predict the thermal damage of composite material when struck by lightning. The procedure uses the Finite Element Method with non-linear material models to represent the extreme thermal material behaviour of the composite material (carbon/epoxy) and an embedded copper mesh protection system. Simulation predictions are compared against published experimental data, illustrating the potential accuracy and computational cost of virtual lightning strike tests and the requirement for temperature dependent material modelling. The modelling procedure is then used to examine and explain a number of practical solutions to minimize thermal material damage. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Integrating allowable design strains in composites with whole life value

Fibre-Reinforced Plastics (FRPs) have been used in civil aerospace vehicles for decades. The current state-of-the-art in airframe design and manufacture results in approximately half the airframe mass attributable to FRP materials. The continual increase in the use of FRP materials over metallic alloys is attributable to the material's superior specific strength and stiffness, fatigue performance and corrosion resistance. However, the full potential of these materials has yet to be exploited as analysis methods to predict physical failure with equal accuracy and robustness are not yet available. The result is a conservative approach to design, but one that can bring benefit via increased inspection intervals and reduced cost over the vehicle life. The challenge is that the methods used in practice are based on empirical tests and real relationships and drivers are difficult to see in this complex process and so the trade-off decision is challenging and uncertain. The aim of this feasibility study was to scope a viable process which could help develop some rules and relationships based on the fundamental mechanics of composite material and the economics of production and operation, which would enhance understanding of the role and impact of design allowables across the life of a composite structure.

The mediastinal staging accuracy of 18F-Fluorodeoxyglycose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography in non-small cell lung cancer with variable time intervals to surgery.

BACKGROUND: PET/CT scanning can determine suitability for curative therapy and inform decision making when considering radical therapy in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Metastases to central mediastinal lymph nodes (N2) may alter such management decisions. We report a 2 year retrospective series assessing N2 lymph node staging accuracy with PET/CT compared to pathological analysis at surgery.

METHODS: Patients with NSCLC attending our centre (excluding those who had induction chemotherapy) who had staging PET/CT scans and pathological nodal sampling between June 2006 and June 2008 were analysed. For each lymph node assessed pathologically, the corresponding PET/CT status was determined. 64 patients with 200 N2 lymph nodes were analysed.

RESULTS: Sensitivity of PET/CT scans for indentifying involved N2 lymph nodes was
39%, specificity 96% and overall accuracy 90%. For individual lymph node analysis, logistic regression demonstrated a significant linear association between PET/CT sensitivity and time from scanning to surgery (p=0.031) but not for specificity and accuracy. Those scanned <9 weeks before pathological sampling were significantly more sensitive (64% >9 weeks, 0% ≥ 9 weeks, p=0.013) and more accurate (94% <9 weeks, 81% ≥ 9 weeks, p=0.007). Differences in specificity were not seen (97% <9 weeks, 91% ≥ 9 weeks, p=0.228). No significant difference in specificity was found at any time point.

CONCLUSIONS: We recommend that if a PET/CT scan is older than 9 weeks, and management would be altered by the presence of N2 nodes, re-staging of the
mediastinum should be undertaken.

The effect of the spectral distribution of wave energy on the performance of a bottom hinged flap type wave energy converter

The power output from a wave energy converter is typically predicted using experimental and/or numerical modelling techniques. In order to yield meaningful results the relevant characteristics of the device, together with those of the wave climate must be modelled with sufficient accuracy.

The wave climate is commonly described using a scatter table of sea states defined according to parameters related to wave height and period. These sea states are traditionally modelled with the spectral distribution of energy defined according to some empirical formulation. Since the response of most wave energy converters vary at different frequencies of excitation, their performance in a particular sea state may be expected to depend on the choice of spectral shape employed rather than simply the spectral parameters. Estimates of energy production may therefore be affected if the spectral distribution of wave energy at the deployment site is not well modelled. Furthermore, validation of the model may be affected by differences between the observed full scale spectral energy distribution and the spectrum used to model it.

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the performance of a bottom hinged flap type wave energy converter to the spectral energy distribution of the incident waves. This is investigated experimentally using a 1:20 scale model of Aquamarine Power’s Oyster wave energy converter, a bottom hinged flap type device situated at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) in approximately 13m water depth. The performance of the model is tested in sea states defined according to the same wave height and period parameters but adhering to different spectral energy distributions.

The results of these tests show that power capture is reduced with increasing spectral bandwidth. This result is explored with consideration of the spectral response of the device in irregular wave conditions. The implications of this result are discussed in the context of validation of the model against particular prototype data sets and estimation of annual energy production.

Understanding of BRCA1/2 genetic tests results:the importance of objective and subjective numeracy

Background: The majority of women (71%) who undergo BRCA1/2 testing—designed to identify genetic mutations associated with increased risk of cancer—receive results that are termed ‘ambiguous’ or ‘uninformative negative’. How women interpret these results and the association with numerical ability was examined. Methods: In this study, 477 women at increased risk for breast and ovarian cancer were recruited via the Cancer Genetics Network. They were presented with information about the four different possible BRCA1/2 test results—positive, true negative, ambiguous and uninformative negative—and asked to indicate which of six options represents the best response. Participants were then asked which treatment options they thought a woman receiving the results should discuss with her doctor. Finally, participants completed measures of objective and subjective numeracy. Results: Almost all of the participants correctly interpreted the positive and negative BRCA1/2 genetic test results. However, they encountered difficulties interpreting the uninformative and ambiguous BRCA1/2 genetic test results. Participants were almost equally likely to think either that the woman had learned nothing from the test result or that she was as likely to develop cancer as the average woman. Highly numerate participants were more likely to correctly interpret inconclusive test results (ambiguous, OR = 1.62; 95% CI [1.28, 2.07]; p < 0.001; uninformative, OR = 1.40; 95% CI [1.10, 1.80]). Discussion: Given the medical and psychological ramifications of genetic testing, healthcare professionals should consider devoting extra effort to ensuring proper comprehension of ambiguous and uninformative negative test results by women. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Monitoring daily MLC positional errors using trajectory log files and EPID measurements for IMRT and VMAT deliveries

This work investigated the differences between multileaf collimator (MLC) positioning accuracy determined using either log files or electronic portal imaging devices (EPID) and then assessed the possibility of reducing patient specific quality control (QC) via phantom-less methodologies. In-house software was developed, and validated, to track MLC positional accuracy with the rotational and static gantry picket fence tests using an integrated electronic portal image. This software was used to monitor MLC daily performance over a 1 year period for two Varian TrueBeam linear accelerators, with the results directly compared with MLC positions determined using leaf trajectory log files. This software was validated by introducing known shifts and collimator errors. Skewness of the MLCs was found to be 0.03 ± 0.06° (mean ±1 standard deviation (SD)) and was dependent on whether the collimator was rotated manually or automatically. Trajectory log files, analysed using in-house software, showed average MLC positioning errors with a magnitude of 0.004 ± 0.003 mm (rotational) and 0.004 ± 0.011 mm (static) across two TrueBeam units over 1 year (mean ±1 SD). These ranges, as indicated by the SD, were lower than the related average MLC positioning errors of 0.000 ± 0.025 mm (rotational) and 0.000 ± 0.039 mm (static) that were obtained using the in-house EPID based software. The range of EPID measured MLC positional errors was larger due to the inherent uncertainties of the procedure. Over the duration of the study, multiple MLC positional errors were detected using the EPID based software but these same errors were not detected using the trajectory log files. This work shows the importance of increasing linac specific QC when phantom-less methodologies, such as the use of log files, are used to reduce patient specific QC. Tolerances of 0.25 mm have been created for the MLC positional errors using the EPID-based automated picket fence test. The software allows diagnosis of any specific leaf that needs repair and gives an indication as to the course of action that is required.

Tests of multimode quantum nonlocality with homodyne measurements

We investigate the violation of local realism in Bell tests involving homodyne measurements performed on multimode continuous-variable states. By binning the measurement outcomes in an appropriate way, we prove that the Mermin-Klyshko inequality can be violated by an amount that grows exponentially with the number of modes. Furthermore, the maximum violation allowed by quantum mechanics can be attained for any number of modes, albeit requiring a quantum state whose generation is hardly practicable. Interestingly, this exponential increase of the violation holds true even for simpler states, such as multipartite GHZ states. The resulting benefit of using more modes is shown to be significant in practical multipartite Bell tests by analyzing the increase of the robustness to noise with the number of modes. In view of the high efficiency achievable with homodyne detection, our results thus open a possible way to feasible loophole-free Bell tests that are robust to experimental imperfections. We provide an explicit example of a three-mode state (a superposition of coherent states) which results in a significantly high violation of the Mermin-Klyshko inequality (around 10%) with homodyne measurements.

Experimentally validated partial least squares model for dynamic line rating

This study presents a model based on partial least squares (PLS) regression for dynamic line rating (DLR). The model has been verified using data from field measurements, lab tests and outdoor experiments. Outdoor experimentation has been conducted both to verify the model predicted DLR and also to provide training data not available from field measurements, mainly heavily loaded conditions. The proposed model, unlike the direct measurement based DLR techniques, enables prediction of line rating for periods ahead of time whenever a reliable weather forecast is available. The PLS approach yields a very simple statistical model that accurately captures the physical performance of the conductor within a given environment without requiring a predetermination of parameters as required by many physical modelling techniques. Accuracy of the PLS model has been tested by predicting the conductor temperature for measurement sets other than those used for training. Being a linear model, it is straightforward to estimate the conductor ampacity for a set of predicted weather parameters. The PLS estimated ampacity has proven its accuracy through an outdoor experiment on a piece of the line conductor in real weather conditions.

Partial least squares model for dynamic rating of overhead line in wind intensive areas based on field measurements

This paper presents a statistical model for the thermal behaviour of the line model based on lab tests and field measurements. This model is based on Partial Least Squares (PLS) multi regression and is used for the Dynamic Line Rating (DLR) in a wind intensive area. DLR provides extra capacity to the line, over the traditional seasonal static rating, which makes it possible to defer the need for reinforcement the existing network or building new lines. The proposed PLS model has a number of appealing features; the model is linear, so it is straightforward to use for predicting the line rating for future periods using the available weather forecast. Unlike the available physical models, the proposed model does not require any physical parameters of the line, which avoids the inaccuracies resulting from the errors and/or variations in these parameters. The developed model is compared with physical model, the Cigre model, and has shown very good accuracy in predicting the conductor temperature as well as in determining the line rating for future time periods. 

Testing Tidal Turbines - Part 1: Steady Towing Tests vs Tidal Moored Tests

Tidal turbines have been tested extensively at many scales in steady state flow. Testing medium- or full-scale devices in turbulent flow has been less thoroughly examined. The differences between turbine performances in these two different states are needed for testing method verification and numerical model validation. The work in this paper documents the performance of a 1/10 scale turbine in steady state pushing tests and tidal moored tests. The overall performance of the device appears to decrease with turbulent flow, though there is increased data scatter and therefore, reduced uncertainty. At maximum power performance, as velocity increases the mechanical power and electrical power reduction from steady to unsteady flow increases. The drive train conversion efficiency also decreases. This infers that the performance for this turbine design is affected by the presence of turbulent flow.

Synergy Between an Improved Covariate Unit Root Test and Cross-sectionally Dependent Panel Data Unit Root Tests, with two Applications

This paper proposes the use of an improved covariate unit root test which exploits the cross-sectional dependence information when the panel data null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected. More explicitly, to increase the power of the test, we suggest the utilization of more than one covariate and offer several ways to select the ‘best’ covariates from the set of potential covariates represented by the individuals in the panel. Employing our methods, we investigate the Prebish-Singer hypothesis for nine commodity prices. Our results show that this hypothesis holds for all but the price of petroleum.

Determination of Non-linear Damping Coefficients of bottom-hinged Oscillating Wave Surge Converters Using Numerical Free Decay Tests

Linear wave theory models are commonly applied to predict the performance of bottom-hinged oscillating wave surge converters (OWSC) in operational sea states. To account for non-linear effects, the additional input of coefficients not included in the model itself becomes necessary. In ocean engineering it is
common practice to obtain damping coefficients of floating structures from free decay tests. This paper presents results obtained from experimental tank tests and numerical computational fluid dynamics simulations of OWSC’s. Agreement between numerical and experimental methods is found to be very good, with CFD providing more data points at small amplitude rotations.
Analysis of the obtained data reveals that linear quadratic-damping, as commonly used in time domain models, is not able to accurately model the occurring damping over the whole regime of rotation amplitudes. The authors
conclude that a hyperbolic function is most suitable to express the instantaneous damping ratio over the rotation amplitude and would be the best choice to be used in coefficient based time domain models.