Efficient Evaluation of Multidimensional Time-Varying Density Forecasts

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation of the coordinate system. The advantage of the second method is not only its applicability to any continuous distribution but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific regions of its domain as defined by the user’s interest. We show that the latter property is particularly useful for evaluating a multidimensional generalization of the Value at Risk. In simulations and in an empirical study, we examine the performance of both tests.

Dynamic Density Forecasts for Multivariate Asset Returns

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the Method of Moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the “negative tail” of the joint distribution.

Participation of 8-12 year old children with cerebral palsy: a cross-sectional European Survey

Objectives
To evaluate how involvement in life situations (participation) in children with cerebral palsy varies with type and severity of impairment and to investigate geographical variation in participation.

Design
Cross sectional study. Trained interviewers visited parents of children with cerebral palsy; multilevel multivariable regression related participation to impairments, pain, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Setting
Eight European regions with population registers of children with cerebral palsy; one further region recruited children from multiple sources.

Participants
1174 children aged 8-12 with cerebral palsy randomly selected from the population registers, 743 (63%) joined in the study; the further region recruited 75 children.

Main outcome measure
Children’s participation assessed by the Life-H questionnaire covering 10 main areas of daily life. Scoring ignored adaptations or assistance required for participation.

Results
Children with pain and those with more severely impaired walking, fine motor skills, communication, and intellectual abilities had lower participation across most domains. Type of cerebral palsy and problems with feeding and vision were associated with lower participation for specific domains, but the sociodemographic factors examined were not. Impairment and pain accounted for up to a sixth of the variation in participation. Participation on all domains varied substantially between regions: children in east Denmark had consistently higher participation than children in other regions. For most participation domains, about a third of the unexplained variation could be ascribed to variation between regions and about two thirds to variation between individuals.

Conclusions
Participation in children with cerebral palsy should be assessed in clinical practice to guide intervention and assess its effect. Pain should be carefully assessed. Some European countries facilitate participation better than others, implying some countries could make better provision. Legislation and regulation should be directed to ensuring this happens.

Neural network forecasts of input-output technology

A significant part of the literature on input-output (IO) analysis is dedicated to the development and application of methodologies forecasting and updating technology coefficients and multipliers. Prominent among such techniques is the RAS method, while more information demanding econometric methods, as well as other less promising ones, have been proposed. However, there has been little interest expressed in the use of more modern and often more innovative methods, such as neural networks in IO analysis in general. This study constructs, proposes and applies a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN) with the purpose of forecasting IO technology coefficients and subsequently multipliers. The RAS method is also applied on the same set of UK IO tables, and the discussion of results of both methods is accompanied by a comparative analysis. The results show that the BPN offers a valid alternative way of IO technology forecasting and many forecasts were more accurate using this method. Overall, however, the RAS method outperformed the BPN but the difference is rather small to be systematic and there are further ways to improve the performance of the BPN.

Trends in reported sun bed use, sunburn, and sun care knowledge and attitudes in a UK region: results of a survey of the Northern Ireland population

Background Sunburn and sun bed use increase risk of malignant melanoma, the incidence of which continues to rise.

A point prevalence survey of antibiotic prescriptions: benchmarking and patterns of use

center dot Inappropriate antimicrobial use has been associated with increased morbidity and hospital costs.

Early Results of the 3mm Spectral Line Survey toward the L1157 B1 Shocked Region

We have conducted a sensitive 3mm observation toward the shocked region, Lynds 1157 B1, which is an interaction spot between a molecular outflow and its ambient gas. We have successfully detected the CH3CHO, HCOOCH3, and HCOOH lines, as well as the CH2DOH line. The abundances of these molecules relative to CH3OH are found to be lower than those in the low-mass star-forming core, IRAS 16293-2422. Since these molecules are thought to evaporate from grain mantles, the observational results mean that complex molecules are less abundant in grain mantles residing in the ambient cloud surrounding a prestellar/protostellar core. Instead, efficient formation of the complex organic species and deuterated species should take place in a prestellar/protostellar core. The present result verifies the importance of an unbiased line survey of this source.

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey I. Introduction and observational overview

The VLT-FLAMES Tarantula Survey (VFTS) is an ESO Large Programme that has obtained multi-epoch optical spectroscopy of over 800 massive stars in the 30 Doradus region of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Here we introduce our scientific motivations and give an overview of the survey targets, including optical and near-infrared photometry and comprehensive details of the data reduction. One of the principal objectives was to detect massive binary systems via variations in their radial velocities, thus shaping the multi-epoch observing strategy. Spectral classifications are given for the massive emission-line stars observed by the survey, including the discovery of a new Wolf-Rayet star (VFTS 682, classified as WN5h), 2' to the northeast of R136. To illustrate the diversity of objects encompassed by the survey, we investigate the spectral properties of sixteen targets identified by Gruendl & Chu from Spitzer photometry as candidate young stellar objects or stars with notable mid-infrared excesses. Detailed spectral classification and quantitative analysis of the O- and B-type stars in the VFTS sample, paying particular attention to the effects of rotational mixing and binarity, will be presented in a series of future articles to address fundamental questions in both stellar and cluster evolution.