Advances in joint modelling: A review of recent developments with application to the survival of end stage renal disease patients

The use of joint modelling approaches is becoming increasingly popular when an association exists between survival and longitudinal processes. Widely recognized for their gain in efficiency, joint models also offer a reduction in bias compared with naïve methods. With the increasing popularity comes a constantly expanding literature on joint modelling approaches. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of recent literature relating to joint models, in particular those that focus on the time-to-event survival process. A discussion is provided on the range of survival submodels that have been implemented in a joint modelling framework. A particular focus is given to the recent advancements in software used to build these models. Illustrated through the use of two different real-life data examples that focus on the survival of end-stage renal disease patients, the use of the JM and joineR packages within R are demonstrated. The possible future direction for this field of research is also discussed. © 2013 International Statistical Institute.

Survival in dialysis patients is different between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

A previous study in Dutch dialysis patients showed no survival difference between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and those with diabetes as a co-morbid condition. As this was not in line with our hypothesis, we aimed to verify these results in a larger international cohort of dialysis patients.

METHODS:

For the present prospective study, we used data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry. Incident dialysis patients with data on co-morbidities (n?=?15,419) were monitored until kidney transplantation, death or end of the study period (5 years). Cox regression was performed to compare survival for patients with diabetes as primary renal disease, patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition and non-diabetic patients.

RESULTS:

Of the study population, 3,624 patients (24%) had diabetes as primary renal disease and 1,193 (11%) had diabetes as a co-morbid condition whereas the majority had no diabetes (n?=?10,602). During follow-up, 7,584 (49%) patients died. In both groups of diabetic patients mortality was higher compared with the non-diabetic patients. Mortality was higher in patients with diabetes as primary renal disease than in patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition, adjusted for age, sex, country and malignancy (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.30). An analysis stratified by dialysis modality yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

Overall mortality was significantly higher in patients with diabetes as primary renal disease compared with those with diabetes as a co-morbid condition. This suggests that survival in diabetic dialysis patients is affected by the extent to which diabetes has induced organ damage.

Retinal vascular geometry predicts incident renal dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE - To examine the relationship between retinal vascular geometry parameters and development of incident renal dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - This was a prospective cohort study of 511 adolescents with type 1 diabetes of at least 2 years duration, with normal albumin excretion rate (AER) and no retinopathy at baseline while attending an Australian tertiary-care hospital. AER was quantified using three overnight, timed urine specimen collections and early renal dysfunction was defined as AER >7.5 µg/min. Retinal vascular geometry (including length-to-diameter ratio [LDR] and simple tortuosity [ST]) was quantified from baseline retinal photographs. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine the relationship between incident renal dysfunction and baseline venular LDR and ST, adjusting for age, diabetes duration, glycated hemoglobin (A1C), blood pressure (BP), BMI, and cholesterol. RESULTS - Diabetes duration at baseline was 4.8 (IQR 3.3-7.5) years. After amedian 3.7 (2.3-5.7) years follow-up, 34% of participants developed incident renal dysfunction. In multivariate analysis, higher retinal venular LDR (odds ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4; quartile 4 vs. 1-3) and lower venular ST (1.6, 1.1-2.2; quartile 1 vs. 2-4) predicted incident renal dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS - Retinal venular geometry independently predicted incident renal dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes. These noninvasive retinal measures may help to elucidate early mechanistic pathways for microvascular complications. Retinal venular geometry may be a useful tool to identify individuals at high risk of renal disease early in the course of diabetes. © 2012 by the American Diabetes Association.

CD2AP is associated with end-stage renal disease in patients with type 1 diabetes

CD2-associated protein (CD2AP) is essential for podocyte function. CD2AP mutations have been found in patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, a disease histologically resembling diabetic nephropathy and often progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We hypothesised that variations in the CD2AP gene may contribute to susceptibility to glomerular injury in diabetes and investigated if single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CD2AP are associated with diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes. The discovery cohort consisted of 2,251 Finnish patients with type 1 diabetes. SNPs were selected from the HapMap database to cover the CD2AP gene. The associations between genotyped SNPs and diabetic nephropathy or ESRD were analysed with the chi-squared test and logistic regression. Three SNPs were selected for replication in cohorts from Denmark, Italy, the United Kingdom and Ireland. None of the 15 successfully genotyped SNPs were associated with diabetic nephropathy when compared to patients with normal albumin excretion rate. However, when genotype frequencies in patients with ESRD were compared with all other patients, two CD2AP SNPs, rs9369717 and rs9349417, were found to be associated with ESRD. The meta-analysis of the original and two additional European cohorts resulted in significant p values

Revascularization versus medical therapy for renal-artery stenosis

Percutaneous revascularization of the renal arteries improves patency in atherosclerotic renovascular disease, yet evidence of a clinical benefit is limited.

Lung clearance index: Evidence for use in clinical trials in cystic fibrosis

The ECFS-CTN Standardisation Committee has undertaken this review of lung clearance index as part of the group's work on evaluation of clinical endpoints with regard to their use in multicentre clinical trials in CF. The aims were 1) to review the literature on reliability, validity and responsiveness of LCI in patients with CF, 2) to gain consensus of the group on feasibility of LCI and 3) to gain consensus on answers to key questions regarding the promotion of LCI to surrogate endpoint status. It was concluded that LCI has an attractive feasibility and clinimetric properties profile and is particularly indicated for multicentre trials in young children with CF and patients with early or mild CF lung disease. This is the first article to collate the literature in this manner and support the use of LCI in clinical trials in CF.

Lung Clearance Index Is a Repeatable and Sensitive Indicator of Radiological Changes in Bronchiectasis

RATIONALE: In bronchiectasis there is a need for improved markers of lung function to determine disease severity and response to therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the lung clearance index is a repeatable and more sensitive indicator of computed tomography (CT) scan abnormalities than spirometry in bronchiectasis.

METHODS: Thirty patients with stable bronchiectasis were recruited and lung clearance index, spirometry, and health-related quality of life measures were assessed on two occasions, 2 weeks apart when stable (study 1). A separate group of 60 patients with stable bronchiectasis was studied on a single visit with the same measurements and a CT scan (study 2).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In study 1, the intervisit intraclass correlation coefficient for the lung clearance index was 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.89 to 0.97; P < 0.001). In study 2, the mean age was 62 (10) years, FEV1 76.5% predicted (18.9), lung clearance index 9.1 (2.0), and total CT score 14.1 (10.2)%. The lung clearance index was abnormal in 53 of 60 patients (88%) and FEV1 was abnormal in 37 of 60 patients (62%). FEV1 negatively correlated with the lung clearance index (r = -0.51, P < 0.0001). Across CT scores, there was a relationship with the lung clearance index, with little evidence of an effect of FEV1. There were no significant associations between the lung clearance index or FEV1 and health-related quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS: The lung clearance index is repeatable and a more sensitive measure than FEV1 in the detection of abnormalities demonstrated on CT scan. The lung clearance index has the potential to be a useful clinical and research tool in patients with bronchiectasis.