Integração de evidências em redes credais e a regra de Jeffrey

Credal networks provide a scheme for dealing with imprecise probabilistic models. The inference algorithms often used in credal networks compute the interval of the posterior probability of an event of interest given evidence of the specific kind -- evidence that describe the current state of a set of variables. These algorithms do not perform evidential reasoning in case of the evidence must be processed according to the conditioning rule proposed by RC Jeffrey. This paper describes a procedure to integrate evidence with Jeffrey's rule when performing inferences with credal nets.

Seasonal variation in month of diagnosis in children with type 1 diabetes registered in 23 European centers during 1989-2008: little short-term influence of sunshine hours or average temperature

BACKGROUND: The month of diagnosis in childhood type 1 diabetes shows seasonal variation.

OBJECTIVE: We describe the pattern and investigate if year-to-year irregularities are associated with meteorological factors using data from 50 000 children diagnosed under the age of 15 yr in 23 population-based European registries during 1989-2008.

METHODS: Tests for seasonal variation in monthly counts aggregated over the 20 yr period were performed. Time series regression was used to investigate if sunshine hour and average temperature data were predictive of the 240 monthly diagnosis counts after taking account of seasonality and long term trends.

RESULTS: Significant sinusoidal pattern was evident in all but two small centers with peaks in November to February and relative amplitudes ranging from ±11 to ±38% (median ±17%). However, most centers showed significant departures from a sinusoidal pattern. Pooling results over centers, there was significant seasonal variation in each age-group at diagnosis, with least seasonal variation in those under 5 yr. Boys showed greater seasonal variation than girls, particularly those aged 10-14 yr. There were no differences in seasonal pattern between four 5-yr sub-periods. Departures from the sinusoidal trend in monthly diagnoses in the period were significantly associated with deviations from the norm in average temperature (0.8% reduction in diagnoses per 1 °C excess) but not with sunshine hours.

CONCLUSIONS: Seasonality was consistently apparent throughout the period in all age-groups and both sexes, but girls and the under 5 s showed less marked variation. Neither sunshine hour nor average temperature data contributed in any substantial way to explaining departures from the sinusoidal pattern.

Identifying the distinct features of geometric structures for hole trapping to generate radicals on rutile TiO2(110) in photooxidation using density functional theory calculations with hybrid functional

Using density functional theory calculations with HSE 06 functional, we obtained the structures of spin-polarized radicals on rutile TiO2(110), which is crucial to understand the photooxidation at the atomic level, and further calculate the thermodynamic stabilities of these radicals. By analyzing the results, we identify the structural features for hole trapping in the system, and reveal the mutual effects among the geometric structures, the energy levels of trapped hole states and their hole trapping capacities. Furthermore, the results from HSE 06 functional are compared to those from DFT + U and the stability trend of radicals against the number of slabs is tested. The effect of trapped holes on two important steps of the oxygen evolution reaction, i.e. water dissociation and the oxygen removal, is investigated and discussed.

Density functional theory study of mixed-phase TiO2: heterostructures and electronic properties

In this work, density functional theory calculations have been performed to study the geometric, electronic, and energetic properties of two-phase TiO2 composites built by joining two single-phase TiO2 slabs, aiming at verifying possible improvement of the photo-activities of the composites through phase separation of excitons. We find that such desired electronic properties can be determined by several factors. When both the HOMO and LUMO levels of one of the two single-phase TiO2 slabs are higher than the corresponding ones of the other, the composite may have native electronic structures with phase-separated HOMO-LUMO states, especially when the two slabs exhibit highly matched surface lattices. For those pairs of TiO2 slabs with the HOMO and LUMO levels of one phase being within the range of those of the other, though the energetically favored composite give HOMO-LUMO states within one phase, one may still be able to separate them and move the HOMO state to the interface region by destabilizing the interactions between the two slabs.

A sedimentologic and 14C dating study of five eastern Australian upper continental slope submarine landslides

Sedimentologic and AMS 14C age data are reported for calcareous hemipelagic mud samples taken from gravity cores collected at sites within, or adjacent to five submarine landslides identified with multibeam bathymetry data on the Nerrang Plateau segment and surrounding canyons of eastern Australia's continental slope (Bribie Bowl, Coolangatta-2, Coolangatta-1, Cudgen and Byron). Sediments are comprised of mixtures of calcareous and terrigenous clay (10-20%), silt (50-65%) and sand (15-40%) and are generally uniform in appearance. Their carbonate contents vary between and 17% and 22% by weight while organic carbon contents are less than 10% by weight. Dating of conformably deposited material identified in ten of the twelve cores indicates a range of sediment accumulation rates between 0.017mka-1 and 0.2 mka-1 which are consistent with previous estimates reported for this area. One slide-adjacent core, and four within-landslide cores present depositional hiatus surfaces located at depths of 0.8 to 2.2 meters below the present-day seafloor and identified by a sharp, colour-change boundary; discernable but small increases in sediment stiffness; and a slight increase in sediment bulk density of 0.1 gcm-3. Distinct gaps in AMS 14C age of at least 20ka are recorded across these boundary surfaces. Examination of sub-bottom profiler records of transects through three of the within-slide core-sites and their nearby landslide scarps available for the Coolangatta-1 and Cudgen slides indicate that: 1) the youngest identifiable sediment layer reflectors upslope of these slides, terminate on and are truncated by slide rupture surfaces; and 2) there is no obvious evidence in the sub-bottom profiles for a post-slide sediment layer draped over or otherwise burying slide ruptures or exposed slide detachment surfaces. This suggests that both these submarine landslides are geologically recent and suggests that the hiatus surfaces identified in Coolangatta-1's and Cudgen's within-slide cores are either: a) erosional features that developed after the occurrence of the landslide in which case the hiatus surface age provides a minimum age for landslide occurrence or b) detachment surfaces from which slabs of near-surface sediment were removed during landsliding in which case the post-hiatus sediment dates indicates approximately when landsliding occurred. In either case, it is reasonable to suggest that these two spatially adjacent slides occurred penecontemporaneously approximately 20,000 years ago.

Concrete damage plasticity model for modeling FRP-to-concrete bond behavior

The technique of externally bonding fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has become very popular worldwide for retrofitting existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. Debonding of FRP from the concrete substrate is a typical failure mode in such strengthened structures. The bond behavior between FRP and concrete thus plays a crucial role in these structures. The FRP-to-concrete bond behavior has been extensively investigated experimentally, commonly using a single or double shear test of the FRP-to-concrete bonded joint. Comparatively, much less research has been concerned with numerical simulation, chiefly due to difficulties in the accurate modeling of the complex behavior of concrete. This paper presents a simple but robust finite-element (FE) model for simulating the bond behavior in the entire debonding process for the single shear test. A concrete damage plasticity model is proposed to capture the concrete-to-FRP bond behavior. Numerical results are in close agreement with test data, validating the model. In addition to accuracy, the model has two further advantages: it only requires the basic material parameters (i.e., no arbitrary user-defined parameter such as the shear retention factor is required) and it can be directly implemented in the FE software ABAQUS.

Finite element modelling of FRP-to-concrete bond behaviour using the concrete damage plasticity theory combined with a plastic degradation model

The technique of externally bonding fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has been becoming popular worldwide for retrofitting existing reinforced concrete (RC) structures. A major failure mode in such strengthened structures is the debonding of FRP from the concrete substrate. The bond behaviour between FRP and concrete thus plays a crucial role in these structures. The FRP-to-concrete bond behaviour has been extensively investigated experimentally, commonly using the pull-off test of FRP-to-concrete bonded joint. Comparatively, much less research has been concerned with the numerical simulation of this bond behaviour, chiefly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the complex behaviour of concrete. This paper proposes a robust finite element (FE) model for simulating the bond behaviour in the entire loading process in the pull-off test. A concrete damage plasticity model based on the plastic degradation theory is proposed to overcome the weakness of the elastic degradation theory which has been commonly adopted in previous studies. The model produces results in very close agreement with test data. © Tsinghua University Press, Beijing and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.

Experimental study on PC hollow-core slab strengthened with bamboo plates

An experimental study on strengthening prestressed concrete (PC) hollow-core slabs was conducted. Nine PC hollow-core slabs were tested, including three unstrengthened reference slabs and six slabs strengthened with bamboo plates. The results show that compared with unreinforced slabs, the cracking loads of PC hollow-core slabs strengthened with bamboo plates increase by 5% to 96% (with an average of 41%), the loads at allowable deflection increase by 8% to 76% (with an average of 35%), and the ultimate loads increase by 83% to 184% (with an average of 123%), respectively. All the degrees of improvement in the crack load, allowable load and ultimate load increase with the increase in the thickness and width of the bamboo plates. With the increase in the loads, the strain distribution along the height of the strengthened slabs at the mid-span basically remains a plan-assumption. With the increase in the thickness and width of the bamboo plates, both the bamboo tensile strain on the tensile face and the concrete compressive strain on the compression face of the strengthened slabs decrease under the same load level.

FRP-to-concrete bond-slip behaviour under dynamic loading

Strengthening reinforced concrete (RC) structures by externally bonded FRP composites has been widely used for static loading and seismic retrofitting since 1990s. More recently many studies on strengthening concrete and masonry structures with externally bonded FRP for improved blast and impact resistance in protective engineering have also been conducted. The bond behaviour between the FRP and concrete plays a critical role in a strengthening system with externally bonded FRP. However, the understanding of how the bond between FRP and concrete performs under high strain rate is severely limited. Due to the dynamic characteristics of blast and impact loading, the bond behaviour between FRP and concrete under such loading is very different from that under static loading. This paper presents a study on the dynamic bond-slip behaviour based on both the numerical analysis and test results. A dynamic bond-slip model is proposed in this paper.

Bond behavior of NSM FRP strips between two adjacent cracks in concrete beams: A numerical study

Strengthening RC structures with near-surface mounted (NSM) fibre reinforced polymer (FRP) composites has a number of advantages compared with that with externally bonded (EB) FRP sheets/plates. As with EB FRP, the performance of the bond between NSM FRP and concrete is one of the key factors affecting the behaviour of the strengthened structure. This paper presents a numerical investigation into the behaviour of NSM FRP loaded at its both ends to simulate the NSM FRP-toconcrete bond between two adjacent cracks in RC members. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively clarify the effect of the bondline damage during slip reversal on the ultimate load (bond strength). The results show that the bondline damage has a significant effect on the load-carrying capacity of the NSM FRP-to-concrete bonded interface and should be considered in FE modeling of the interface.

A Novel Approach for Axle Detection in Bridge Weigh-In-Motion Systems

Bridge weigh-in-motion (B-WIM), a system that uses strain sensors to calculate the weights of trucks passing on bridges overhead, requires accurate axle location and speed information for effective performance. The success of a B-WIM system is dependent upon the accuracy of the axle detection method. It is widely recognised that any form of axle detector on the road surface is not ideal for B-WIM applications as it can cause disruption to the traffic (Ojio & Yamada 2002; Zhao et al. 2005; Chatterjee et al. 2006). Sensors under the bridge, that is Nothing-on-Road (NOR) B-WIM, can perform axle detection via data acquisition systems which can detect a peak in strain as the axle passes. The method is often successful, although not all bridges are suitable for NOR B-WIM due to limitations of the system. Significant research has been carried out to further develop the method and the NOR algorithms, but beam-and-slab bridges with deep beams still present a challenge. With these bridges, the slabs are used for axle detection, but peaks in the slab strains are sensitive to the transverse position of wheels on the beam. This next generation B-WIM research project extends the current B-WIM algorithm to the problem of axle detection and safety, thus overcoming the existing limitations in current state-of–the-art technology. Finite Element Analysis was used to determine the critical locations for axle detecting sensors and the findings were then tested in the field. In this paper, alternative strategies for axle detection were determined using Finite Element analysis and the findings were then tested in the field. The site selected for testing was in Loughbrickland, Northern Ireland, along the A1 corridor connecting the two cities of Belfast and Dublin. The structure is on a central route through the island of Ireland and has a high traffic volume which made it an optimum location for the study. Another huge benefit of the chosen location was its close proximity to a nearby self-operated weigh station. To determine the accuracy of the proposed B-WIM system and develop a knowledge base of the traffic load on the structure, a pavement WIM system was also installed on the northbound lane on the approach to the structure. The bridge structure selected for this B-WIM research comprised of 27 pre-cast prestressed concrete Y4-beams, and a cast in-situ concrete deck. The structure, a newly constructed integral bridge, spans 19 m and has an angle of skew of 22.7°.

Responsiveness of dark-adaptation threshold to vitamin A and beta-carotene supplementation in pregnant and lactating women in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Impaired dark adaptation occurs commonly in vitamin A deficiency. OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine the responsiveness of dark-adaptation threshold to vitamin A and beta-carotene supplementation in Nepali women. DESIGN: The dark-adapted pupillary response was tested in 298 pregnant women aged 15-45 y in a placebo-controlled trial of vitamin A and beta-carotene; 131 of these women were also tested at 3 mo postpartum. Results were compared with those for 100 nonpregnant US women of similar age. The amount of light required for pupillary constriction was recorded after bleaching and dark adaptation. RESULTS: Pregnant women receiving vitamin A had better dark-adaptation thresholds (-1.24 log cd/m(2)) than did those receiving placebo (-1.11 log cd/m(2); P: = 0. 03) or beta-carotene (-1.13 log cd/m(2); P: = 0.05) (t tests with Bonferroni correction). Dark-adaptation threshold was associated with serum retinol concentration in pregnant women receiving placebo (P: = 0.001) and in those receiving beta-carotene (P: = 0.003) but not in those receiving vitamin A. Among women receiving placebo, mean dark-adaptation thresholds were better during the first trimester (-1.23 log cd/m(2)) than during the second and third trimesters (-1.03 log cd/m(2); P: = 0.02, t test). The mean threshold of nonpregnant US women (-1.35 log cd/m(2)) was better than that of all 3 Nepali groups (P: < 0.001, t test, for all 3 groups). CONCLUSIONS: During pregnancy, pupillary dark adaptation was strongly associated with serum retinol concentration and improved significantly in response to vitamin A supplementation. This noninvasive testing technique is a valid indicator of population vitamin A status in women of reproductive age.

Potential public health impact of Age-Related Eye Disease Study results: AREDS report no. 11.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the potential public health impact of the findings of the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) on reducing the number of persons developing advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) during the next 5 years in the United States.

METHODS:

The AREDS clinical trial provides estimates of AMD progression rates and of reduction in risk of developing advanced AMD when a high-dose nutritional supplement of antioxidants and zinc is used. These results are applied to estimates of the US population at risk, to estimate the number of people who would potentially avoid advanced AMD during 5 years if those at risk were to take a supplement such as that used in AREDS.

RESULTS:

An estimated 8 million persons at least 55 years old in the United States have monocular or binocular intermediate AMD or monocular advanced AMD. They are considered to be at high risk for advanced AMD and are those for whom the AREDS formulation should be considered. Of these people, 1.3 million would develop advanced AMD if no treatment were given to reduce their risk. If all of these people at risk received supplements such as those used in AREDS, more than 300,000 (95% confidence interval, 158,000-487,000) of them would avoid advanced AMD and any associated vision loss during the next 5 years.

CONCLUSION:

If people at high risk for advanced AMD received supplements such as those suggested by AREDS results, the potential impact on public health in the United States would be considerable during the next 5 years.