Vaccination and All Cause Child Mortality 1985-2011: Global Evidence from the Demographic and Health Surveys

Based on models with calibrated parameters for infection, case fatality rates, and vaccine efficacy, basic childhood vaccinations have been estimated to be highly cost effective. We estimate the association of vaccination with mortality directly from survey data. Using 149 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys, we determine the relationship between vaccination coverage and under five mortality at the survey cluster level. Our data include approximately one million children in 68,490 clusters in 62 countries. We consider the childhood measles, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus (DPT), Polio, and maternal tetanus vaccinations. Using modified Poisson regression to estimate the relative risk of child mortality in each cluster, we also adjust for selection bias caused by the vaccination status of dead children not being reported. Childhood vaccination, and in particular measles and tetanus vaccination, is associated with substantial reductions in childhood mortality. We estimate that children in clusters with complete vaccination coverage have relative risk of mortality 0.73 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.68, 0.77) that of children in a cluster with no vaccination. While widely used, basic vaccines still have coverage rates well below 100% in many countries, and our results emphasize the effectiveness of increasing their coverage rates in order to reduce child mortality.

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.

A phase I/II trial of vorinostat in combination with 5-fluorouracil in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who previously failed 5-FU-based chemotherapy

PURPOSE: We conducted a phase I/II clinical trial to determine the safety and feasibility of combining vorinostat with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and elevated intratumoral thymidylate synthase (TS).

METHODS: Patients with mCRC who had failed all standard therapeutic options were eligible. Intratumoral TS mRNA expression and peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) histone acetylation were measured before and after 6 consecutive days of vorinostat treatment at 400 mg PO daily. 5-FU/LV were given on days 6 and 7 and repeated every 2 weeks, along with continuous daily vorinostat. Dose escalation occurred in cohorts of three to six patients.

RESULTS: Ten patients were enrolled. Three dose levels were explored in the phase I portion of the study. Two dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) were observed at the starting dose level, which resulted in dose de-escalation to levels -1 and -2. Given the occurrence of two DLTs at each of the dose levels, we were unable to establish a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). Two patients achieved significant disease stabilization for 4 and 6 months. Grade 3 and 4 toxicities included fatigue, thrombocytopenia and mucositis. Intratumoral TS downregulation > or = 50% was observed in one patient only. Acetylation of histone 3 was observed in PBMCs following vorinostat treatment.

CONCLUSIONS: The study failed to establish a MTD and was terminated. The presence of PBMC histone acetylation indicates biological activity of vorinostat, however, consistent reductions in intratumoral TS mRNA were not observed. Alternate vorinostat dose-scheduling may alleviate the toxicity and achieve optimal TS downregulation.

Technological aids for the rehabilitation of memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury (Review).

Background The use of technology in healthcare settings is on the increase and may represent a cost-effective means of delivering rehabilitation. Reductions in treatment time, and delivery in the home, are also thought to be benefits of this approach. Children and adolescents with brain injury often experience deficits in memory and executive functioning that can negatively affect their school work, social lives, and future occupations. Effective interventions that can be delivered at home, without the need for high-cost clinical involvement, could provide a means to address a current lack of provision. We have systematically reviewed studies examining the effects of technology-based interventions for the rehabilitation of deficits in memory and executive functioning in children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Objectives To assess the effects of technology-based interventions compared to placebo intervention, no treatment, or other types of intervention, on the executive functioning and memory of children and adolescents with acquired brain injury. Search methods We ran the search on the 30 September 2015. We searched the Cochrane Injuries Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Ovid MEDLINE(R), Ovid MEDLINE(R) In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid MEDLINE(R) Daily and Ovid OLDMEDLINE(R), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE (OvidSP), ISI Web of Science (SCI-EXPANDED, SSCI, CPCI-S, and CPSI-SSH), CINAHL Plus (EBSCO), two other databases, and clinical trials registers. We also searched the internet, screened reference lists, and contacted authors of included studies. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing the use of a technological aid for the rehabilitation of children and adolescents with memory or executive-functioning deficits with placebo, no treatment, or another intervention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently reviewed titles and abstracts identified by the search strategy. Following retrieval of full-text manuscripts, two review authors independently performed data extraction and assessed the risk of bias. Main results Four studies (involving 206 participants) met the inclusion criteria for this review. Three studies, involving 194 participants, assessed the effects of online interventions to target executive functioning (that is monitoring and changing behaviour, problem solving, planning, etc.). These studies, which were all conducted by the same research team, compared online interventions against a 'placebo' (participants were given internet resources on brain injury). The interventions were delivered in the family home with additional support or training, or both, from a psychologist or doctoral student. The fourth study investigated the use of a computer program to target memory in addition to components of executive functioning (that is attention, organisation, and problem solving). No information on the study setting was provided, however a speech-language pathologist, teacher, or occupational therapist accompanied participants. Two studies assessed adolescents and young adults with mild to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), while the remaining two studies assessed children and adolescents with moderate to severe TBI. Risk of bias We assessed the risk of selection bias as low for three studies and unclear for one study. Allocation bias was high in two studies, unclear in one study, and low in one study. Only one study (n = 120) was able to conceal allocation from participants, therefore overall selection bias was assessed as high. One study took steps to conceal assessors from allocation (low risk of detection bias), while the other three did not do so (high risk of detection bias). Primary outcome 1: Executive functioning: Technology-based intervention versus placebo Results from meta-analysis of three studies (n = 194) comparing online interventions with a placebo for children and adolescents with TBI, favoured the intervention immediately post-treatment (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.37, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.66 to -0.09; P = 0.62; I2 = 0%). (As there is no 'gold standard' measure in the field, we have not translated the SMD back to any particular scale.) This result is thought to represent only a small to medium effect size (using Cohen’s rule of thumb, where 0.2 is a small effect, 0.5 a medium one, and 0.8 or above is a large effect); this is unlikely to have a clinically important effect on the participant. The fourth study (n = 12) reported differences between the intervention and control groups on problem solving (an important component of executive functioning). No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. The quality of evidence for this outcome according to GRADE was very low. This means future research is highly likely to change the estimate of effect. Primary outcome 2: Memory One small study (n = 12) reported a statistically significant difference in improvement in sentence recall between the intervention and control group following an eight-week remediation programme. No means or standard deviations were presented for this outcome, therefore an effect size could not be calculated. Secondary outcomes Two studies (n = 158) reported on anxiety/depression as measured by the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and were included in a meta-analysis. We found no evidence of an effect with the intervention (mean difference -5.59, 95% CI -11.46 to 0.28; I2 = 53%). The GRADE quality of evidence for this outcome was very low, meaning future research is likely to change the estimate of effect. A single study sought to record adverse events and reported none. Two studies reported on use of the intervention (range 0 to 13 and 1 to 24 sessions). One study reported on social functioning/social competence and found no effect. The included studies reported no data for other secondary outcomes (that is quality of life and academic achievement). Authors' conclusions This review provides low-quality evidence for the use of technology-based interventions in the rehabilitation of executive functions and memory for children and adolescents with TBI. As all of the included studies contained relatively small numbers of participants (12 to 120), our findings should be interpreted with caution. The involvement of a clinician or therapist, rather than use of the technology, may have led to the success of these interventions. Future research should seek to replicate these findings with larger samples, in other regions, using ecologically valid outcome measures, and reduced clinician involvement.

An aggregated fridge-freezer peak shaving and valley filling control strategy for enhanced grid operations

The need for fast response demand side participation (DSP) has never been greater due to increased wind power penetration. White domestic goods suppliers are currently developing a `smart' chip for a range of domestic appliances (e.g. refrigeration units, tumble dryers and storage heaters) to support the home as a DSP unit in future power systems. This paper presents an aggregated population-based model of a single compressor fridge-freezer. Two scenarios (i.e. energy efficiency class and size) for valley filling and peak shaving are examined to quantify and value DSP savings in 2020. The analysis shows potential peak reductions of 40 MW to 55 MW are achievable in the Single wholesale Electricity Market of Ireland (i.e. the test system), and valley demand increases of up to 30 MW. The study also shows the importance of the control strategy start time and the staggering of the devices to obtain the desired filling or shaving effect.

Interventions to improve the appropriate use of polypharmacy in older people: a Cochrane systematic review

Objective: To summarise the findings of an updated Cochrane review of interventions aimed at improving the appropriate use of polypharmacy in older people. Design: Cochrane systematic review. Multiple electronic databases were searched including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (from inception to November 2013). Hand searching of references was also performed. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials, controlled before-and-after studies and interrupted time series analyses reporting on interventions targeting appropriate polypharmacy in older people in any healthcare setting were included if they used a validated measure of prescribing appropriateness. Evidence quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool and GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation).
Setting: All healthcare settings. 
Participants: Older people (≥65 years) with ≥1 long-term condition who were receiving polypharmacy (≥4 regular medicines).
Primary and secondary outcome measures: Primary outcomes were the change in prevalence of appropriate polypharmacy and hospital admissions. Medication-related problems (eg, adverse drug reactions), medication adherence and quality of life were included as secondary outcomes.
Results: 12 studies were included: 8 RCTs, 2 cluster RCTs and 2 controlled before-and-after studies. 1 study involved computerised decision support and 11 comprised pharmaceutical care approaches across various settings. Appropriateness was measured using validated tools, including the Medication Appropriateness Index, Beers’ criteria and Screening Tool of Older Person’s Prescriptions (STOPP)/ Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START). The interventions demonstrated a reduction in inappropriate prescribing. Evidence of effect on hospital admissions and medication-related problems was conflicting. No differences in health-related quality of life were reported.
Conclusions: The included interventions demonstrated improvements in appropriate polypharmacy based on reductions in inappropriate prescribing. However, it remains unclear if interventions resulted in clinically significant improvements (eg, in terms of hospital admissions). Future intervention studies would benefit from available guidance on intervention development, evaluation and reporting to facilitate replication in clinical practice.

The use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents with ruxolitinib in patients with myelofibrosis in COMFORT-II: an open-label, phase 3 study assessing efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib versus best available therapy in the treatment of myelofibrosis

BACKGROUND: Anemia is considered a negative prognostic risk factor for survival in patients with myelofibrosis. Most patients with myelofibrosis are anemic, and 35-54 % present with anemia at diagnosis. Ruxolitinib, a potent inhibitor of Janus kinase (JAK) 1 and JAK2, was associated with an overall survival benefit and improvements in splenomegaly and patient-reported outcomes in patients with myelofibrosis in the two phase 3 COMFORT studies. Consistent with the ruxolitinib mechanism of action, anemia was a frequently reported adverse event. In clinical practice, anemia is sometimes managed with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs). This post hoc analysis evaluated the safety and efficacy of concomitant ruxolitinib and ESA administration in patients enrolled in COMFORT-II, an open-label, phase 3 study comparing the efficacy and safety of ruxolitinib with best available therapy for treatment of myelofibrosis. Patients were randomized (2:1) to receive ruxolitinib 15 or 20 mg twice daily or best available therapy. Spleen volume was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging or computed tomography scan.

RESULTS: Thirteen of 146 ruxolitinib-treated patients had concomitant ESA administration (+ESA). The median exposure to ruxolitinib was 114 weeks in the +ESA group and 111 weeks in the overall ruxolitinib arm; the median ruxolitinib dose intensity was 33 mg/day for each group. Six weeks before the first ESA administration, 10 of the 13 patients had grade 3/4 hemoglobin abnormalities. These had improved to grade 2 in 7 of the 13 patients by 6 weeks after the first ESA administration. The rate of packed red blood cell transfusions per month within 12 weeks before and after first ESA administration remained the same in 1 patient, decreased in 2 patients, and increased in 3 patients; 7 patients remained transfusion independent. Reductions in splenomegaly were observed in 69 % of evaluable patients (9/13) following first ESA administration.

CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant use of an ESA with ruxolitinib was well tolerated and did not affect the efficacy of ruxolitinib. Further investigations evaluating the effects of ESAs to alleviate anemia in ruxolitinib-treated patients are warranted (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT00934544; July 6, 2009).

Rural communities and wind farms: a contingent valuation investigation

Using the contingent valuation method, this study investigates the preferences of local people for a wind farm that is planned in the Province of Rome. We estimate the reductions in their bimonthly electrical bills over a period of time that respondents are willing to accept as compensation for the installation of the wind farm. Our results suggest that respondents who perceive that the wind farm generates substantial negative impacts on landscape beauty ask higher reductions than others, while respondents who believe that the wind farm produces economic benefits for local communities ask lower reductions than others. Finally, we find that the demand for compensative measures is influenced particularly by socio-economic factors such as age and education.

Memory-centric VDF Graph Transformations for Practical FPGA Implementation

Realising memory intensive applications such as image and video processing on FPGA requires creation of complex, multi-level memory hierarchies to achieve real-time performance; however commerical High Level Synthesis tools are unable to automatically derive such structures and hence are unable to meet the demanding bandwidth and capacity constraints of these applications. Current approaches to solving this problem can only derive either single-level memory structures or very deep, highly inefficient hierarchies, leading in either case to one or more of high implementation cost and low performance. This paper presents an enhancement to an existing MC-HLS synthesis approach which solves this problem; it exploits and eliminates data duplication at multiple levels levels of the generated hierarchy, leading to a reduction in the number of levels and ultimately higher performance, lower cost implementations. When applied to synthesis of C-based Motion Estimation, Matrix Multiplication and Sobel Edge Detection applications, this enables reductions in Block RAM and Look Up Table (LUT) cost of up to 25%, whilst simultaneously increasing throughput.

Dedicated severe asthma services improve health-care use and quality of life

Background: Systematic assessment of severe asthma can be used to confirm the diagnosis, identify comorbidities, and address adherence to therapy. However, the prospective usefulness of this approach is yet to be established. The objective of this study was to determine whether the systematic assessment of severe asthma is associated with improved quality of life (QoL) and health-care use and, using prospective data collection, to compare relevant outcomes in patients referred with severe asthma to specialist centers across the United Kingdom. Methods: Data from the National Registry for dedicated UK Difficult Asthma Services were used to compare patient demographics, disease characteristics, and health-care use between initial assessment and a median follow-up of 286 days. Results: The study population consisted of 346 patients with severe asthma. At follow-up, there were significant reductions in health-care use in terms of primary care or ED visits (66.4% vs 87.8%, P < .0001) and hospital admissions (38% vs 48%, P = .0004). Although no difference was noted in terms of those requiring maintenance oral corticosteroids, there was a reduction in steroid dose (10 mg [8-20 mg] vs 15 mg [10-20 mg], P = .003), and fewer subjects required short-burst steroids (77.4% vs 90.8%, P = .01). Significant improvements were seen in QoL and control using the Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire and the Asthma Control Questionnaire. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first time that a prospective study has shown that a systematic assessment at a dedicated severe asthma center is associated with improved QoL and asthma control and a reduction in health-care use and oral steroid burden.

Implication of modified molecular structure of lipid through heat-related process to fatty acids supply in Brassica carinata seed.

This study was conducted to explore the effect of different autoclave heating times (30, 60 and 90 min) on fatty acids supply and molecular stability in Brassica carinata seed. Multivariate spectral analyses and correlation analyses were also carried out in our study. The results showed that autoclaving treatments significantly decreased the total fatty acids content in a linear fashion in B. carinata seed as heating time increased. Reduced concentrations were also observed in C18:3n3, C20:1, C22:1n9, monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), omega 3 (ω-3) and 9 (ω-9) fatty acids. Correspondingly, the heated seeds showed dramatic reductions in all the peak intensities within lipid-related spectral regions. Results from agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis (AHCA) and principal component analysis (PCA) indicated that the raw oilseed had completely different structural make-up from the autoclaved seeds in both CH3 and CH2 asymmetric and symmetric stretching region (ca. 2999–2800 cm−1) and lipid ester Cdouble bond; length as m-dashO carbonyl region (ca. 1787–1706 cm−1). However, the oilseeds heated for 30, 60 and 90 min were not grouped into separate classes or ellipses in all the lipid-related regions, indicating that there still exhibited similarities in lipid biopolymer conformations among autoclaved B. carinata seeds. Moreover, strong correlations between spectral information and fatty acid compositions observed in our study could imply that lipid-related spectral parameters might have a potential to predict some fatty acids content in oilseed samples, i.e. B. carinata. However, more data from large sample size and diverse range would be necessary and helpful to draw up a final conclusion.

Transfusion and Treatment of severe anaemia in African children (TRACT): a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, where infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies are common, severe anaemia is a common cause of paediatric hospital admission, yet the evidence to support current treatment recommendations is limited. To avert overuse of blood products, the World Health Organisation advocates a conservative transfusion policy and recommends iron, folate and anti-helminthics at discharge. Outcomes are unsatisfactory with high rates of in-hospital mortality (9-10 %), 6-month mortality and relapse (6 %). A definitive trial to establish best transfusion and treatment strategies to prevent both early and delayed mortality and relapse is warranted.

METHODS/DESIGN: TRACT is a multicentre randomised controlled trial of 3954 children aged 2 months to 12 years admitted to hospital with severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 6 g/dl). Children will be enrolled over 2 years in 4 centres in Uganda and Malawi and followed for 6 months. The trial will simultaneously evaluate (in a factorial trial with a 3 x 2 x 2 design) 3 ways to reduce short-term and longer-term mortality and morbidity following admission to hospital with severe anaemia in African children. The trial will compare: (i) R1: liberal transfusion (30 ml/kg whole blood) versus conservative transfusion (20 ml/kg) versus no transfusion (control). The control is only for children with uncomplicated severe anaemia (haemoglobin 4-6 g/dl); (ii) R2: post-discharge multi-vitamin multi-mineral supplementation (including folate and iron) versus routine care (folate and iron) for 3 months; (iii) R3: post-discharge cotrimoxazole prophylaxis for 3 months versus no prophylaxis. All randomisations are open. Enrolment to the trial started September 2014 and is currently ongoing. Primary outcome is cumulative mortality to 4 weeks for the transfusion strategy comparisons, and to 6 months for the nutritional support/antibiotic prophylaxis comparisons. Secondary outcomes include mortality, morbidity (haematological correction, nutritional and infectious), safety and cost-effectiveness.

DISCUSSION: If confirmed by the trial, a cheap and widely available 'bundle' of effective interventions, directed at immediate and downstream consequences of severe anaemia, could lead to substantial reductions in mortality in a substantial number of African children hospitalised with severe anaemia every year, if widely implemented.

The spectrum of paediatric cardiac disease presenting to an outpatient clinic in Malawi

BACKGROUND: As progress is made towards attaining Millennium Development Goal 4, further reductions in paediatric mortality will only be achieved by concentrating on the burden of non-communicable or neglected diseases. The literature relating to paediatric cardiac disease in sub-Saharan Africa is sparse. There are no published descriptions of paediatric cardiac disease from Malawi, making it impossible to estimate the contribution it makes to childhood morbidity and mortality.

FINDINGS: In 2008, a paediatric cardiac clinic with echocardiogram scanning was established in Blantyre, southern Malawi. Between January 2009 and February 2011, the age and cardiac diagnosis of every child with an abnormal echocardiogram was recorded in a database. Of 250 children, 139 (55.6%) had congenital heart disease, and 111 (44.4%) acquired heart disease. Ventricular septal defect (VSD) (24%), Tetralogy of Fallot (10%) and patent ductus arteriousus (7.2%) were the commonest forms of congenital heart disease. Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) (22.4%) and dilated cardiomyopathy (13.6%) were the commonest acquired diseases. The mean age of presentation was 3 years 2 months for VSD and 11 years 6 months for RHD.

CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of children from one centre in Malawi, acquired heart disease - in particular rheumatic heart disease was almost as common as congenital heart disease. Most presented late. It is likely that untreated cardiac disease causes a large number of childhood deaths in Malawi. In addition to renewing secondary preventative efforts against rheumatic heart disease, adequate and accessible cardiothoracic surgical services should be established at a regional level.

Electron-impact single ionization of Mg and Al+

Theory and experiment are compared for the electron-impact single ionization of Mg and Al+. Nonpertur- bative R matrix with pseudostates RMPS and time-dependent close-coupling TDCC calculations have been carried out that exhibit large reductions from perturbative distorted-wave results of 38% for Mg and 20% for Al+. Experimental single-ionization data available for Mg and Al+ are in reasonable accord with distorted-wave data and lie substantially above the new theoretical results. Rate coefficients, necessary for the collisional- radiative modeling of Mg and Al plasmas were generated from the RMPS ionization cross sections. In the collisional-ionization region near the ionization threshold, the resulting rates were found to be up to two times lower for Mg and three times lower for Al+ than the rates generated from experimental data.

Electron-impact ionization of B+

Electron-impact ionization cross sections are calculated for the ground and metastable states of B+. Com- parisons between perturbative distorted-wave and nonperturbative close-coupling calculations find reductions in the direct ionization cross sections due to long-range electron correlation effects of approximately 10% for the ground state and approximately 15% for the metastable state. Previous crossed-beams experiments, with a metastable to ground ratio of between 50% and 90%, are found to be in reasonable agreement with metastable state close-coupling results. New crossed-beams experiments, with a metastable to ground ratio of only 9%, are found to be in reasonable agreement with ground state close-coupling results. Combined with previous work on neutral B and B2+, the nonperturbative close-coupling calculations provide accurate ionization cross sections for the study of edge plasmas in controlled fusion research.