"...and they won land among the Picts by friendly treaty or the sword": How a re-examination of early historical sources and an analysis of early medieval settlement in north Co. Antrim confirms the validity of traditional accounts of Dál Riatic migration to Scotland from Ulster

Much recent scholarship has been critical of the concept of a Dál Riatic migration to, or colonisation of, Argyll. Scepticism of the accuracy of the early medieval accounts of this population movement, arguing that these are late amendments to early sources, coupled with an apparent lack of archaeological evidence for such a migration have led to its rejection. It is argued here, however, that this rejection has been based on too narrow a reading of historical sources and that there are several early accounts which, while differing in detail, agree on one point of substance, that the origin of Scottish Dál Riata lies in Ireland. Also, the use of archaeological evidence to suggest no migration to Argyll by the Dál Riata is flawed, misunderstanding the nature of early migrations and how they might be archaeologically identified, and it's proposed that there is actually quite a lot of evidence for migration to Argyll by the Dál Riata, in the form of settlement and artefactural evidence, but that it is to be found in Ireland through the mechanism of counterstream migration, rather than in Scotland.

Dimensionality, Reliability and Validity of the InterRAI Depression Rating Scale in a Canadian Palliative Care Population

A reliable and valid instrument is needed to screen for depression in palliative patients. The interRAI Depression Rating Scale (DRS) is based on seven items in the interRAI Palliative Care instrument. This study is the first to explore the dimensionality, reliability and validity of the DRS in a palliative population. Palliative home care patients (n = 5,175) residing in Ontario (Canada) were assessed with the interRAI Palliative Care instrument. Exploratory factor analysis and Mokken scale analysis were used to identify candidate conceptual models and evaluate scale homogeneity/performance. Confirmatory factor analysis compared models using standard goodness-of-fit indices. Convergent and divergent validity were investigated by examining polychoric correlations between the DRS and other items. The “known groups” test determined if the DRS meaningfully distinguished among client subgroups. The non-hierarchical two factor model showed acceptable fit with the data, and ordinal alpha coefficients of 0.83 and 0.82 were observed for the two DRS subscales. Omega hierarchical (ωh) was 0.78 for the bifactor model, with the general factor explaining three quarters of the common variance. Despite the multidimensionality evident in the factor analyses, bifactor modelling and the Mokken homogeneity coefficient (0.34) suggest that the DRS is a coherent scale that captures important information on sub-constructs of depression (e.g., somatic symptoms). Higher correlations were seen between the DRS and mood and psychosocial well-being items, and lower correlations with functional status and demographic variables. The DRS distinguished in the expected manner for known risk factors (e.g., social support, pain). The results suggest that the DRS is primarily unidimensional and reliable for use in screening for depression in palliative care patients.

Validity of the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) in assessing levels and change in moderate-vigorous physical activity and sedentary behaviour

Background

Feasible, cost-effective instruments are required for the surveillance of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary behaviour (SB) and to assess the effects of interventions. However, the evidence base for the validity and reliability of the World Health Organisation-endorsed Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ) is limited. We aimed to assess the validity of the GPAQ, compared to accelerometer data in measuring and assessing change in MVPA and SB.

Participants (n = 101) were selected randomly from an on-going research study, stratified by level of physical activity (low, moderate or highly active, based on the GPAQ) and sex. Participants wore an accelerometer (Actigraph GT3X) for seven days and completed a GPAQ on Day 7. This protocol was repeated for a random sub-sample at a second time point, 3–6 months later. Analysis involved Wilcoxon-signed rank tests for differences in measures, Bland-Altman analysis for the agreement between measures for median MVPA and SB mins/day, and Spearman’s rho coefficient for criterion validity and extent of change.

95 participants completed baseline measurements (44 females, 51 males; mean age 44 years, (SD 14); measurements of change were calculated for 41 (21 females, 20 males; mean age 46 years, (SD 14). There was moderate agreement between GPAQ and accelerometer for MVPA mins/day (r = 0.48) and poor agreement for SB (r = 0.19). The absolute mean difference (self-report minus accelerometer) for MVPA was −0.8 mins/day and 348.7 mins/day for SB; and negative bias was found to exist, with those people who were more physically active over-reporting their level of MVPA: those who were more sedentary were less likely to under-report their level of SB. Results for agreement in change over time showed moderate correlation (r = 0.52, p = 0.12) for MVPA and poor correlation for SB (r = −0.024, p = 0.916).

Levels of agreement with objective measurements indicate the GPAQ is a valid measure of MVPA and change in MVPA but is a less valid measure of current levels and change in SB. Thus, GPAQ appears to be an appropriate measure for assessing the effectiveness of interventions to promote MVPA.

A quantum measurement paradigm for educational predicates: Implications for validity in educational measurement

The outcomes of educational assessments undoubtedly have real implications for students, teachers, schools and education in the widest sense. Assessment results are, for example, used to award qualifications that determine future educational or vocational pathways of students. The results obtained by students in assessments are also used to gauge individual teacher quality, to hold schools to account for the standards achieved by their students, and to compare international education systems. Given the current high-stakes nature of educational assessment, it is imperative that the measurement practices involved have stable philosophical foundations. However, this paper casts doubt on the theoretical underpinnings of contemporary educational measurement models. Aspects of Wittgenstein’s later philosophy and Bohr’s philosophy of quantum theory are used to argue that a quantum theoretical rather than a Newtonian model is appropriate for educational measurement, and the associated implications for the concept of validity are elucidated. Whilst it is acknowledged that the transition to a quantum theoretical framework would not lead to the demise of educational assessment, it is argued that, where practical, current high-stakes assessments should be reformed to become as ‘low-stakes’ as possible. The paper also undermines some of the pro high-stakes testing rhetoric that has a tendency to afflict education.

Next-generation sequencing: a change of paradigm in molecular diagnostic validation

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is beginning to show its full potential for diagnostic and therapeutic applications. In particular, it is enunciating its capacity to contribute to a molecular taxonomy of cancer, to be used as a standard approach for diagnostic mutation detection, and to open new treatment options that are not exclusively organ-specific. If this is the case, how much validation is necessary and what should be the validation strategy, when bringing NGS into the diagnostic/clinical practice? This validation strategy should address key issues such as: what is the overall extent of the validation? Should essential indicators of test performance such as sensitivity of specificity be calculated for every target or sample type? Should bioinformatic interpretation approaches be validated with the same rigour? What is a competitive clinical turnaround time for a NGS-based test, and when does it become a cost-effective testing proposition? While we address these and other related topics in this commentary, we also suggest that a single set of international guidelines for the validation and use of NGS technology in routine diagnostics may allow us all to make a much more effective use of resources.

Diagnostic accuracy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification as a near-patient test for meningococcal disease in children: An observational cohort study

Background: Diagnosis of meningococcal disease relies on recognition of clinical signs and symptoms that are notoriously non-specific, variable, and often absent in the early stages of the disease. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) has previously been shown to be fast and effective for the molecular detection of meningococcal DNA in clinical specimens. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of meningococcal LAMP as a near-patient test in the emergency department.

Methods: For this observational cohort study of diagnostic accuracy, children aged 0-13 years presenting to the emergency department of the Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children (Belfast, UK) with suspected meningococcal disease were eligible for inclusion. Patients underwent a standard meningococcal pack of investigations testing for meningococcal disease. Respiratory (nasopharyngeal swab) and blood specimens were collected from patients and tested with near-patient meningococcal LAMP and the results were compared with those obtained by reference laboratory tests (culture and PCR of blood and cerebrospinal fluid).

Findings: Between Nov 1, 2009, and Jan 31, 2012, 161 eligible children presenting at the hospital underwent the meningococcal pack of investigations and were tested for meningococcal disease, of whom 148 consented and were enrolled in the study. Combined testing of respiratory and blood specimens with use of LAMP was accurate (sensitivity 89% [95% CI 72-96], specificity 100% [97-100], positive predictive value 100% [85-100]; negative predictive value 98% [93-99]) and diagnostically useful (positive likelihood ratio 213 [95% CI 13-infinity] and negative likelihood ratio 0·11 [0·04-0·32]). The median time required for near-patient testing from sample to result was 1 h 26 min (IQR 1 h 20 min-1 h 32 min).

Interpretation: Meningococcal LAMP is straightforward enough for use in any hospital with basic laboratory facilities, and near-patient testing with this method is both feasible and effective. By contrast with existing UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines, we showed that molecular testing of non-invasive respiratory specimens from children is diagnostically accurate and clinically useful.

Evaluation of the diagnostic potential of a novel field immunomagnetic separation-immunochromatographic lateral flow assay to detect Mycobacterium bovis cells in European badger (Meles meles) faeces

The European badger (Meles meles) is a natural reservoir for Mycobacterium bovis, the causative agent of Bovine Tuberculosis, and has consequently been implicated in transmission of the disease to cattle. This study describes application of a novel M. bovis-specific immunochromatographic (lateral flow) assay in combination with immunomagnetic separation (IMS-LFD), to test badger faeces samples. In total, 441 faeces samples from badgers of unknown disease status collected from latrines at 110 badger setts throughout Northern Ireland (NI) and 100 faeces samples from badgers of known infection status from Great Britain (GB) were tested. Faeces (approx. 1g) was homogenised in 9 ml phosphate buffered saline, filtered (70 µm), and then 6-8 ml subjected to the IMS-LFD test. Residual clarified faecal homogenates were subjected to automated IMS followed by MGIT™ liquid culture (AIMS-MGIT™ culture) and qPCR (AIMS-qPCR). Evidence for the presence of M. bovis was obtained for 78 (18%), 61 (14%) and 140 (32%) of 441 NI badger faeces samples, and 10 (10%), 41 (41%) and 56 (56%) of 100 GB badger faeces samples, by IMS-LFD, AIMS-MGIT culture and AIMS-qPCR tests, respectively. The IMS-LFD test was less sensitive than AIMS-qPCR for detection of M. bovis and was, therefore, detecting badgers shedding high numbers of M. bovis in their faeces only. However, these ‘super shedders’ may be primarily responsible for the spread of Bovine Tuberculosis so are, therefore, an important target. This non-invasive test could form the basis of a field surveillance tool to indicate infected badger groups which are actively spreading M. bovis.

Rapid detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection in critical care using multipathogen real-time polymerase chain reaction technology: a diagnostic accuracy study and systematic review

Background: There is growing interest in the potential utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in diagnosing bloodstream infection by detecting pathogen deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) in blood samples within a few hours. SeptiFast (Roche Diagnostics GmBH, Mannheim, Germany) is a multipathogen probe-based system targeting ribosomal DNA sequences of bacteria and fungi. It detects and identifies the commonest pathogens causing bloodstream infection. As background to this study, we report a systematic review of Phase III diagnostic accuracy studies of SeptiFast, which reveals uncertainty about its likely clinical utility based on widespread evidence of deficiencies in study design and reporting with a high risk of bias. 

Objective: Determine the accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR for the detection of health-care-associated bloodstream infection, against standard microbiological culture. 

Design: Prospective multicentre Phase III clinical diagnostic accuracy study using the standards for the reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies criteria. 

Setting: Critical care departments within NHS hospitals in the north-west of England. 

Participants: Adult patients requiring blood culture (BC) when developing new signs of systemic inflammation. 

Main outcome measures: SeptiFast real-time PCR results at species/genus level compared with microbiological culture in association with independent adjudication of infection. Metrics of diagnostic accuracy were derived including sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values, with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Latent class analysis was used to explore the diagnostic performance of culture as a reference standard. 

Results: Of 1006 new patient episodes of systemic inflammation in 853 patients, 922 (92%) met the inclusion criteria and provided sufficient information for analysis. Index test assay failure occurred on 69 (7%) occasions. Adult patients had been exposed to a median of 8 days (interquartile range 4–16 days) of hospital care, had high levels of organ support activities and recent antibiotic exposure. SeptiFast real-time PCR, when compared with culture-proven bloodstream infection at species/genus level, had better specificity (85.8%, 95% CI 83.3% to 88.1%) than sensitivity (50%, 95% CI 39.1% to 60.8%). When compared with pooled diagnostic metrics derived from our systematic review, our clinical study revealed lower test accuracy of SeptiFast real-time PCR, mainly as a result of low diagnostic sensitivity. There was a low prevalence of BC-proven pathogens in these patients (9.2%, 95% CI 7.4% to 11.2%) such that the post-test probabilities of both a positive (26.3%, 95% CI 19.8% to 33.7%) and a negative SeptiFast test (5.6%, 95% CI 4.1% to 7.4%) indicate the potential limitations of this technology in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, latent class analysis indicates that BC has a low sensitivity, questioning its relevance as a reference test in this setting. Using this analysis approach, the sensitivity of the SeptiFast test was low but also appeared significantly better than BC. Blood samples identified as positive by either culture or SeptiFast real-time PCR were associated with a high probability (> 95%) of infection, indicating higher diagnostic rule-in utility than was apparent using conventional analyses of diagnostic accuracy. 

Conclusion: SeptiFast real-time PCR on blood samples may have rapid rule-in utility for the diagnosis of health-care-associated bloodstream infection but the lack of sensitivity is a significant limiting factor. Innovations aimed at improved diagnostic sensitivity of real-time PCR in this setting are urgently required. Future work recommendations include technology developments to improve the efficiency of pathogen DNA extraction and the capacity to detect a much broader range of pathogens and drug resistance genes and the application of new statistical approaches able to more reliably assess test performance in situation where the reference standard (e.g. blood culture in the setting of high antimicrobial use) is prone to error.

Post-diagnostic oral bisphosphonate use and colorectal cancer mortality: a population-based cohort study within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Background:We conducted the first study to investigate post-diagnostic oral bisphosphonates use and colorectal cancer-specific mortality.

Methods:Colorectal cancer patients were identified from the National Cancer Data Repository (1998–2007) and linked to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, providing prescription records, and Office of National Statistics mortality data. Time-dependent Cox regression models investigated colorectal cancer-specific mortality in post-diagnostic bisphosphonate users.

Results:Overall, in 4791 colorectal cancer patients, there was no evidence of an association between bisphosphonate use and colorectal cancer-specific mortality (adjusted hazard ratio=1.11; 95% confidence interval 0.80, 1.54) or with drug frequency or type.

Conclusions:In this novel population-based cohort study, post-diagnostic bisphosphonate use was not associated with longer rates of colorectal cancer survival.