Overweight and obesity on the island of Ireland: an estimation of costs

Objectives The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity worldwide continues to compromise population health and creates a wider societal cost in terms of productivity loss and premature mortality. Despite extensive international literature on the cost of overweight and obesity, findings are inconsistent between Europe and the USA, and particularly within Europe. Studies vary on issues of focus, specific costs and methods. This study aims to estimate the healthcare and productivity costs of overweight and obesity for the island of Ireland in 2009, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches.

Methods Costs were estimated across four categories: healthcare utilisation, drug costs, work absenteeism and premature mortality. Healthcare costs were estimated using Population Attributable Fractions (PAFs). PAFs were applied to national cost data for hospital care and drug prescribing. PAFs were also applied to social welfare and national mortality data to estimate productivity costs due to absenteeism and premature mortality.

Results The healthcare costs of overweight and obesity in 2009 were estimated at €437 million for the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and €127.41 million for NI. Productivity loss due to overweight and obesity was up to €865 million for ROI and €362 million for NI. The main drivers of healthcare costs are cardiovascular disease, type II diabetes, colon cancer, stroke and gallbladder disease. In terms of absenteeism, low back pain is the main driver in both jurisdictions, and for productivity loss due to premature mortality the primary driver of cost is coronary heart disease.

Conclusions The costs are substantial, and urgent public health action is required in Ireland to address the problem of increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity, which if left unchecked will lead to unsustainable cost escalation within the health service and unacceptable societal costs.

PTF11iqb: cool supergiant mass-loss that bridges the gap between Type IIn and normal supernovae

PTF11iqb was initially classified as a TypeIIn event caught very early after explosion. It showed narrow Wolf-Rayet (WR) spectral features on day 2, but the narrow emission weakened quickly and the spectrum morphed to resemble those of Types II-L and II-P. At late times, Halpha emission exhibited a complex, multipeaked profile reminiscent of SN1998S. In terms of spectroscopic evolution, we find that PTF11iqb was a near twin of SN~1998S, although with weaker interaction with circumstellar material (CSM) at early times, and stronger CSM interaction at late times. We interpret the spectral changes as caused by early interaction with asymmetric CSM that is quickly (by day 20) enveloped by the expanding SN ejecta photosphere, but then revealed again after the end of the plateau when the photosphere recedes. The light curve can be matched with a simple model for weak CSM interaction added to the light curve of a normal SN~II-P. This plateau requires that the progenitor had an extended H envelope like a red supergiant, consistent with the slow progenitor wind speed indicated by narrow emission. The cool supergiant progenitor is significant because PTF11iqb showed WR features in its early spectrum --- meaning that the presence of such WR features in an early SN spectrum does not necessarily indicate a WR-like progenitor. [abridged] Overall, PTF11iqb bridges SNe~IIn with weaker pre-SN mass loss seen in SNe II-L and II-P, implying a continuum between these types.

Diagnostic value of increased sensitivity by massively parallel sequencing

Routine molecular diagnostics modalities are unable to confidently detect low frequency mutations (<5-15%) that may indicate response to targeted therapies. We confirm the presence of a low frequency NRAS mutation in a rectal cancer patient using massively parallel sequencing when previous Sanger sequencing results proved negative and Q-PCR testing inconclusive. There is increasing evidence that these low frequency mutations may confer resistance to anti-EGFR therapy. In view of negative/inconclusive Sanger sequencing and Q-PCR results for NRAS mutations in a KRAS wt rectal case, the diagnostic biopsy and 4 distinct subpopulations of cells in the resection specimen after conventional chemo/radiotherapy were massively parallel sequenced using the Ion Torrent PGM. DNA was derived from FFPE rectal cancer tissue and amplicons produced using the Cancer Hotspot Panel V2 and sequenced using semiconductor technology. NRAS mutations were observed at varying frequencies in the patient biopsy (12.2%) and all four subpopulations of cells in the resection with an average frequency of 7.3% (lowest 2.6%). The results of the NGS also provided the mutational status of 49 other genes that may have prognostic or predictive value, including KRAS and PIK3CA. NGS technology has been postulated in diagnostics because of its capability to generate results in large panels of clinically meaningful genes in a cost-effective manner. This case illustrates another potential advantage of this technology: its use for detecting low frequency mutations that may influence therapeutic decisions in cancer treatment.

Molecular classification of non-invasive breast lesions for personalised therapy and chemoprevention

Breast cancer screening has led to a dramatic increase in the detection of pre-invasive breast lesions. While mastectomy is almost guaranteed to treat the disease, more conservative approaches could be as effective if patients can be stratified based on risk of co-existing or recurrent invasive disease.Here we use a range of biomarkers to interrogate and classify purely non-invasive lesions (PNL) and those with co-existing invasive breast cancer (CEIN). Apart from Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS), relative homogeneity is observed. DCIS contained a greater spread of molecular subtypes. Interestingly, high expression of p-mTOR was observed in all PNL with lower expression in DCIS and invasive carcinoma while the opposite expression pattern was observed for TOP2A.Comparing PNL with CEIN, we have identified p53 and Ki67 as predictors of CEIN with a combined PPV and NPV of 90.48% and 43.3% respectively. Furthermore, HER2 expression showed the best concordance between DCIS and its invasive counterpart.We propose that these biomarkers can be used to improve the management of patients with pre-invasive breast lesions following further validation and clinical trials. p53 and Ki67 could be used to stratify patients into low and high-risk groups for co-existing disease. Knowledge of expression of more actionable targets such as HER2 or TOP2A can be used to design chemoprevention or neo-adjuvant strategies. Increased knowledge of the molecular profile of pre-invasive lesions can only serve to enhance our understanding of the disease and, in the era of personalised medicine, bring us closer to improving breast cancer care.

Comprehensive molecular pathology analysis of small bowel adenocarcinoma reveals novel targets with potential for clinical utility

Small bowel accounts for only 0.5% of cancer cases in the US but incidence rates have been rising at 2.4% per year over the past decade. One-third of these are adenocarcinomas but little is known about their molecular pathology and no molecular markers are available for clinical use. Using a retrospective 28 patient matched normal-tumor cohort, next-generation sequencing, gene expression arrays and CpG methylation arrays were used for molecular profiling. Next-generation sequencing identified novel mutations in IDH1, CDH1, KIT, FGFR2, FLT3, NPM1, PTEN, MET, AKT1, RET, NOTCH1 and ERBB4. Array data revealed 17% of CpGs and 5% of RNA transcripts assayed to be differentially methylated and expressed respectively (p < 0.01). Merging gene expression and DNA methylation data revealed CHN2 as consistently hypermethylated and downregulated in this disease (Spearman -0.71, p < 0.001). Mutations in TP53 which were found in more than half of the cohort (15/28) and Kazald1 hypomethylation were both were indicative of poor survival (p = 0.03, HR = 3.2 and p = 0.01, HR = 4.9 respectively). By integrating high-throughput mutational, gene expression and DNA methylation data, this study reveals for the first time the distinct molecular profile of small bowel adenocarcinoma and highlights potential clinically exploitable markers.

Immunohistochemistry should undergo robust validation equivalent to that of molecular diagnostics

Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is a widely available and highly utilised tool in diagnostic histopathology and is used to guide treatment options as well as provide prognostic information. IHC is subjected to qualitative and subjective assessment, which has been criticised for a lack of stringency, while PCR-based molecular diagnostic validations by comparison are regarded as very rigorous. It is essential that IHC tests are validated through evidence-based procedures. With the move to ISO15189 (2012), not just of the accuracy, specificity and reproducibility of each test need to be determined and managed, but also the degree of uncertainty and the delivery of such tests. The recent update to ISO 15189 (2012) states that it is appropriate to consider the potential uncertainty of measurement of the value obtained in the laboratory and how that may impact on prognostic or predictive thresholds. In order to highlight the problems surrounding IHC validity, we reviewed the measurement of Ki67and p53 in the literature. Both of these biomarkers have been incorporated into clinical care by pathology laboratories worldwide. The variation seen appears excessive even when measuring centrally stained slides from the same cases. We therefore propose in this paper to establish the basis on which IHC laboratories can bring the same level of robust validation seen in the molecular pathology laboratories and the principles applied to all routine IHC tests.

Quantification of HER2 heterogeneity in breast cancer-implications for identification of sub-dominant clones for personalised treatment

Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, at both an inter- and intra-tumoural level. Appreciating heterogeneity through the application of biomarkers and molecular signatures adds complexity to tumour taxonomy but is key to personalising diagnosis, treatment and prognosis. The extent to which heterogeneity exists, and its interpretation remains a challenge to pathologists. Using HER2 as an exemplar, we have developed a simple reproducible heterogeneity index. Cell-to-cell HER2 heterogeneity was extensive in a proportion of both reported 'amplified' and 'non-amplified' cases. The highest levels of heterogeneity objectively identified occurred in borderline categories and higher ratio non-amplified cases. A case with particularly striking heterogeneity was analysed further with an array of biomarkers in order to assign a molecular diagnosis. Broad biological complexity was evident. In essence, interpretation, depending on the area of tumour sampled, could have been one of three distinct phenotypes, each of which would infer different therapeutic interventions. Therefore, we recommend that heterogeneity is assessed and taken into account when determining treatment options.

Evidence for the reliability and validity, but not the practical utility of the two-factor Consideration of Future Consequences Scale-14

Researchers have proposed 1-factor, 2-factor, and bifactor solutions to the 12-item Consideration of Future Consequences Scale (CFCS-12). In order to overcome some measurement problems and to create a robust and conceptually useful two-factor scale the CFCS-12 was recently modified to include two new items and to become the CFCS-14. Using a University sample, we tested four competing models for the CFCS-14: (a) a 12-item unidimensional model, (b) a model fitted for two uncorrelated factors (CFC-Immediate and CFC-Future), (c) a model fitted for two correlated factors (CFC-I and CFC-F), and (d) a bifactor model. Results suggested that the addition of the two new items has strengthened the viability of a two factor solution of the CFCS-14. Results of linear regression models suggest that the CFC-F factor is redundant. Further studies using alcohol and mental health indicators are required to test this redundancy.

Urinary thrombomodulin levels were significantly higher following occupational exposure to chemicals, in the presence of dipstick protein, but not in the presence of dipstick blood

Currently, there are no biomarkers which can identify patients with an increased risk of developing urothelial cancer as a result of occupational chemical exposure. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationships between final diagnosis and 22 biomarkers measured in urine, serum and plasma collected from 156 hematuric patients. Fourteen of the 80 patients (17.5%) with urothelial cancer and 13/76 (17.1%) of the controls were deemed to have a history of chemical exposure. We applied Fisher's exact tests to explore associations between chemical exposure and final diagnosis, and tumor stage and grade, where applicable; ANOVA and t-test to compare age across patients with and without chemical exposure; and Zelen's exact test to evaluate relationships across final diagnosis, chemical exposure and smoking. Following pre-selection of biomarkers using Lasso, we identified biomarkers with differential levels across patients with and without chemical exposure using Welch's t-test. Using a one-sided t-test and considering multiple testing using FDR, we observed that TM levels in urine were significantly higher in samples from patients with a history of chemical exposure regardless of their diagnosis as control or urothelial cancer (one-sided t-test, p_UC = 0.014 and p_CTL = 0.043); in the presence of dipstick protein and when urinary pH levels ≤ 6 (p = 0.003), but not in the presence of dipstick blood (p = 0.115). Urothelial cancer patients with a history of chemical exposure were significantly younger (64.1 years) than those without chemical exposure (70.2 years) (one-sided t-test p-value = 0.012); and their tumors were higher grade (Fisher's exact test; p = 0.008). There was a strong association between a history of chemical exposure and smoking in urothelial cancer patients (Zelen's exact test; p = 0.025). Elevated urinary thrombomodulin levels could have the potential to identify chemical exposure in hematuric patients at high risk of developing urothelial cancer.