Advances in joint modelling: A review of recent developments with application to the survival of end stage renal disease patients

The use of joint modelling approaches is becoming increasingly popular when an association exists between survival and longitudinal processes. Widely recognized for their gain in efficiency, joint models also offer a reduction in bias compared with naïve methods. With the increasing popularity comes a constantly expanding literature on joint modelling approaches. The aim of this paper is to give an overview of recent literature relating to joint models, in particular those that focus on the time-to-event survival process. A discussion is provided on the range of survival submodels that have been implemented in a joint modelling framework. A particular focus is given to the recent advancements in software used to build these models. Illustrated through the use of two different real-life data examples that focus on the survival of end-stage renal disease patients, the use of the JM and joineR packages within R are demonstrated. The possible future direction for this field of research is also discussed. © 2013 International Statistical Institute.

Survival in dialysis patients is different between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:

A previous study in Dutch dialysis patients showed no survival difference between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and those with diabetes as a co-morbid condition. As this was not in line with our hypothesis, we aimed to verify these results in a larger international cohort of dialysis patients.

METHODS:

For the present prospective study, we used data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry. Incident dialysis patients with data on co-morbidities (n?=?15,419) were monitored until kidney transplantation, death or end of the study period (5 years). Cox regression was performed to compare survival for patients with diabetes as primary renal disease, patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition and non-diabetic patients.

RESULTS:

Of the study population, 3,624 patients (24%) had diabetes as primary renal disease and 1,193 (11%) had diabetes as a co-morbid condition whereas the majority had no diabetes (n?=?10,602). During follow-up, 7,584 (49%) patients died. In both groups of diabetic patients mortality was higher compared with the non-diabetic patients. Mortality was higher in patients with diabetes as primary renal disease than in patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition, adjusted for age, sex, country and malignancy (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.30). An analysis stratified by dialysis modality yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:

Overall mortality was significantly higher in patients with diabetes as primary renal disease compared with those with diabetes as a co-morbid condition. This suggests that survival in diabetic dialysis patients is affected by the extent to which diabetes has induced organ damage.

Retinal vascular geometry predicts incident renal dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE - To examine the relationship between retinal vascular geometry parameters and development of incident renal dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - This was a prospective cohort study of 511 adolescents with type 1 diabetes of at least 2 years duration, with normal albumin excretion rate (AER) and no retinopathy at baseline while attending an Australian tertiary-care hospital. AER was quantified using three overnight, timed urine specimen collections and early renal dysfunction was defined as AER >7.5 µg/min. Retinal vascular geometry (including length-to-diameter ratio [LDR] and simple tortuosity [ST]) was quantified from baseline retinal photographs. Generalized estimating equations were used to examine the relationship between incident renal dysfunction and baseline venular LDR and ST, adjusting for age, diabetes duration, glycated hemoglobin (A1C), blood pressure (BP), BMI, and cholesterol. RESULTS - Diabetes duration at baseline was 4.8 (IQR 3.3-7.5) years. After amedian 3.7 (2.3-5.7) years follow-up, 34% of participants developed incident renal dysfunction. In multivariate analysis, higher retinal venular LDR (odds ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4; quartile 4 vs. 1-3) and lower venular ST (1.6, 1.1-2.2; quartile 1 vs. 2-4) predicted incident renal dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS - Retinal venular geometry independently predicted incident renal dysfunction in young people with type 1 diabetes. These noninvasive retinal measures may help to elucidate early mechanistic pathways for microvascular complications. Retinal venular geometry may be a useful tool to identify individuals at high risk of renal disease early in the course of diabetes. © 2012 by the American Diabetes Association.

Role of nitric oxide in maintenance of basal oral tissue blood flow in anesthetized cats

Experiments were undertaken to determine if nitric oxide (NO) plays a role in regulation of basal blood flow in the oral cavity of pentobarbital anesthetized cats and, if so, to quantify this effect using dose-response relationships. Blood flow was continuously measured from the surface of the tongue and mandibular gingiva (laser-Doppler flowmetry) and from the lingual artery (ultrasonic flowmetry). Cardiovascular parameters also were recorded. Administration of the nonselective inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase (NOS), L-NAME (0.08-20 mg/kg i.v.), produced a dose-related increase of blood pressure associated with decreases of blood flow at all three measurement sites. Maximal blood flow depression of 50-60% was seen 30-60 min after administration of 1.25 mg/kg of L-NAME. D-NAME (1.25 mg/kg i.v.) was inactive at all sites. Subsequent administration of L-arginine partially reversed effects of L-NAME in the lingual artery and tongue, but not in the gingival circulation. The neuronally selective NOS inhibitor, 7-nitroindazole (7-NI, 30 mg/kg i.p.), was devoid of effect on any of the measured parameters. These results suggest that endothelial (but not neuronally derived) NO plays an important role in control of basal blood flow in oral tissues of the cat.

CD2AP is associated with end-stage renal disease in patients with type 1 diabetes

CD2-associated protein (CD2AP) is essential for podocyte function. CD2AP mutations have been found in patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, a disease histologically resembling diabetic nephropathy and often progressing to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We hypothesised that variations in the CD2AP gene may contribute to susceptibility to glomerular injury in diabetes and investigated if single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CD2AP are associated with diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes. The discovery cohort consisted of 2,251 Finnish patients with type 1 diabetes. SNPs were selected from the HapMap database to cover the CD2AP gene. The associations between genotyped SNPs and diabetic nephropathy or ESRD were analysed with the chi-squared test and logistic regression. Three SNPs were selected for replication in cohorts from Denmark, Italy, the United Kingdom and Ireland. None of the 15 successfully genotyped SNPs were associated with diabetic nephropathy when compared to patients with normal albumin excretion rate. However, when genotype frequencies in patients with ESRD were compared with all other patients, two CD2AP SNPs, rs9369717 and rs9349417, were found to be associated with ESRD. The meta-analysis of the original and two additional European cohorts resulted in significant p values

Revascularization versus medical therapy for renal-artery stenosis

Percutaneous revascularization of the renal arteries improves patency in atherosclerotic renovascular disease, yet evidence of a clinical benefit is limited.

Suspected giant cell arteritis:A study of referrals for temporal artery biopsy

Background: The purpose of this study is to describe the nature of cases undergoing temporal artery biopsy (TAB) for suspected giant cell arteritis (GCA). Methods: A retrospective review of case notes was undertaken for all patients on whom ophthalmologists had performed TAB in 2 teaching hospitals between 1995 and 2001. Presenting symptoms, referring specialty, TAB result, treatment, and discharge diagnosis were recorded. Results: Ophthalmologists performed TAB on 110 patients for suspected GCA. A variety of specialties referred patients to ophthalmology for TAB; presenting symptoms varied with referral source. Of the 110 TABs, 21 (19%) were reported as positive for GCA, 84 (76%) were negative, and 5 (4.5%) were reported as inadequate. The symptoms most commonly associated with a positive TAB were visual disturbance (15/21) and headache (15/21).The odds ratios for having a positive TAB result rather than a negative result were 1.0 for the presence of headache, 4.1 for visual disturbance, and 6.7 for jaw claudication. Interpretation: Physicians were faced with a different population of GCA suspects than ophthalmologists. While physicians should be alert to the significance of visual symptoms or jaw claudication, ophthalmologists should be ready to facilitate prompt TABs when appropriate. TAB should be performed promptly and an adequate length of artery taken for biopsy. An argument can be made that TAB is not needed in cases of suspected GCA. However, a positive result provides firm justification for the use of steroids. We feel that TAB has a useful role and we make reference to methods to maximize its usefulness.

Novel genetic susceptibility loci for diabetic end-stage renal disease identified through robust naive Bayes classification

Aims/hypothesis: Diabetic nephropathy is a major diabetic complication, and diabetes is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Family studies suggest a hereditary component for diabetic nephropathy. However, only a few genes have been associated with diabetic nephropathy or ESRD in diabetic patients. Our aim was to detect novel genetic variants associated with diabetic nephropathy and ESRD. Methods: We exploited a novel algorithm, ‘Bag of Naive Bayes’, whose marker selection strategy is complementary to that of conventional genome-wide association models based on univariate association tests. The analysis was performed on a genome-wide association study of 3,464 patients with type 1 diabetes from the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy (FinnDiane) Study and subsequently replicated with 4,263 type 1 diabetes patients from the Steno Diabetes Centre, the All Ireland-Warren 3-Genetics of Kidneys in Diabetes UK collection (UK–Republic of Ireland) and the Genetics of Kidneys in Diabetes US Study (GoKinD US). Results: Five genetic loci (WNT4/ZBTB40-rs12137135, RGMA/MCTP2-rs17709344, MAPRE1P2-rs1670754, SEMA6D/SLC24A5-rs12917114 and SIK1-rs2838302) were associated with ESRD in the FinnDiane study. An association between ESRD and rs17709344, tagging the previously identified rs12437854 and located between the RGMA and MCTP2 genes, was replicated in independent case–control cohorts. rs12917114 near SEMA6D was associated with ESRD in the replication cohorts under the genotypic model (p < 0.05), and rs12137135 upstream of WNT4 was associated with ESRD in Steno. Conclusions/interpretation: This study supports the previously identified findings on the RGMA/MCTP2 region and suggests novel susceptibility loci for ESRD. This highlights the importance of applying complementary statistical methods to detect novel genetic variants in diabetic nephropathy and, in general, in complex diseases.

Freehand core biopsy in breast cancer: an accurate predictor of tumour grade following neoadjuvant chemotherapy?

Core biopsy is an increasingly used technique in the pre-operative diagnosis of breast carcinoma, as it provides useful prognostic information with respect to tumour type and grade. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is being used in the treatment of large and locally advanced breast cancers but little is known regarding the correlation between tumour histology on pre-treatment core biopsy and that in residual tumour following primary chemotherapy and surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of core biopsy in predicting these features in patients treated with primary chemotherapy. One hundred and thirty-three patients with carcinoma of the breast diagnosed on clinical, radiological and cytological examination underwent core biopsy, followed by primary chemotherapy (with cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin and prednisolone) and surgery. The false-negative rate for pre-treatment core biopsy was 14%, with 91% agreement between the grade demonstrated on core biopsy and that in the residual tumour following completion of chemotherapy. Tumour type in the residual post-chemotherapy tumour was predicted by core biopsy in 84%. This study suggests that pre-treatment core biopsy histology accurately predicts residual tumour histology following primary chemotherapy and surgery in patients with breast cancer. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sentinel lymph node biopsy in breast cancer - is lymphoscintigraphy really necessary?

The role of lymphoscintigraphy in sentinel node biopsy in breast cancer remains debatable. This study assesses the value of lymphoscintigraphy in axillary sentinel node biopsy in women undergoing surgery for breast cancer. Sixty-two patients underwent sentinel node biopsy using a combination of technetium-label led nanocolloid, lymphoscintigraphy and patent blue dye. Lymphoscintigraphy was successful in 84% of patients. Axillary sentinel nodes were identified intraoperatively in all these patients. Internal mammary nodes were identified on lymphoscintigraphy in 19%. Despite lymphoscintigraphy being unsuccessful in 10 patients, axillary sentinel nodes were found intraoperatively in eight of these patients. Lymphoscintigraphy did not increase the detection rate of axillary sentinel nodes and a negative scan did not preclude identification of an axillary sentinel node intraoperatively. This study questions the contribution of lymphoscintigraphy in axillary sentinel node biopsy, however its value may lie in the detection of extra-axillary nodes. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.