Nonparametric Estimation of Data Dimensionality Prior to Data Compression: the case of the Human Development Index

In many applications in applied statistics researchers reduce the complexity of a data set by combining a group of variables into a single measure using factor analysis or an index number. We argue that such compression loses information if the data actually has high dimensionality. We advocate the use of a non-parametric estimator, commonly used in physics (the Takens estimator), to estimate the correlation dimension of the data prior to compression. The advantage of this approach over traditional linear data compression approaches is that the data does not have to be linearized. Applying our ideas to the United Nations Human Development Index we find that the four variables that are used in its construction have dimension three and the index loses information.

Surveillance for ocular hypertension: An evidence synthesis and economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To determine effective and efficient monitoring criteria for ocular hypertension [raised intraocular pressure (IOP)] through (i) identification and validation of glaucoma risk prediction models; and (ii) development of models to determine optimal surveillance pathways.

DESIGN: A discrete event simulation economic modelling evaluation. Data from systematic reviews of risk prediction models and agreement between tonometers, secondary analyses of existing datasets (to validate identified risk models and determine optimal monitoring criteria) and public preferences were used to structure and populate the economic model.

SETTING: Primary and secondary care.

PARTICIPANTS: Adults with ocular hypertension (IOP > 21 mmHg) and the public (surveillance preferences).

INTERVENTIONS: We compared five pathways: two based on National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines with monitoring interval and treatment depending on initial risk stratification, 'NICE intensive' (4-monthly to annual monitoring) and 'NICE conservative' (6-monthly to biennial monitoring); two pathways, differing in location (hospital and community), with monitoring biennially and treatment initiated for a ≥ 6% 5-year glaucoma risk; and a 'treat all' pathway involving treatment with a prostaglandin analogue if IOP > 21 mmHg and IOP measured annually in the community.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Glaucoma cases detected; tonometer agreement; public preferences; costs; willingness to pay and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS: The best available glaucoma risk prediction model estimated the 5-year risk based on age and ocular predictors (IOP, central corneal thickness, optic nerve damage and index of visual field status). Taking the average of two IOP readings, by tonometry, true change was detected at two years. Sizeable measurement variability was noted between tonometers. There was a general public preference for monitoring; good communication and understanding of the process predicted service value. 'Treat all' was the least costly and 'NICE intensive' the most costly pathway. Biennial monitoring reduced the number of cases of glaucoma conversion compared with a 'treat all' pathway and provided more QALYs, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was considerably more than £30,000. The 'NICE intensive' pathway also avoided glaucoma conversion, but NICE-based pathways were either dominated (more costly and less effective) by biennial hospital monitoring or had a ICERs > £30,000. Results were not sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating surveillance but were sensitive to the risk threshold for initiating treatment, NHS costs and treatment adherence.

LIMITATIONS: Optimal monitoring intervals were based on IOP data. There were insufficient data to determine the optimal frequency of measurement of the visual field or optic nerve head for identification of glaucoma. The economic modelling took a 20-year time horizon which may be insufficient to capture long-term benefits. Sensitivity analyses may not fully capture the uncertainty surrounding parameter estimates.

CONCLUSIONS: For confirmed ocular hypertension, findings suggest that there is no clear benefit from intensive monitoring. Consideration of the patient experience is important. A cohort study is recommended to provide data to refine the glaucoma risk prediction model, determine the optimum type and frequency of serial glaucoma tests and estimate costs and patient preferences for monitoring and treatment.

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Detection of visual-field deterioration by Glaucoma Progression Analysis and Threshold Noiseless Trend programs

BACKGROUND: To compare the ability of Glaucoma Progression Analysis (GPA) and Threshold Noiseless Trend (TNT) programs to detect visual-field deterioration.

METHODS: Patients with open-angle glaucoma followed for a minimum of 2 years and a minimum of seven reliable visual fields were included. Progression was assessed subjectively by four masked glaucoma experts, and compared with GPA and TNT results. Each case was judged to be stable, deteriorated or suspicious of deterioration

RESULTS: A total of 56 eyes of 42 patients were followed with a mean of 7.8 (SD 1.0) tests over an average of 5.5 (1.04) years. Interobserver agreement to detect progression was good (mean kappa = 0.57). Progression was detected in 10-19 eyes by the experts, in six by GPA and in 24 by TNT. Using the consensus expert opinion as the gold standard (four clinicians detected progression), the GPA sensitivity and specificity were 75% and 83%, respectively, while the TNT sensitivity and specificity was 100% and 77%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: TNT showed greater concordance with the experts than GPA in the detection of visual-field deterioration. GPA showed a high specificity but lower sensitivity, mainly detecting cases of high focality and pronounced mean defect slopes.

The quality of reporting of diagnostic accuracy studies in glaucoma using scanning laser polarimetry

PURPOSE: Scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) has been proposed as a useful diagnostic test for glaucoma. This study was conducted to evaluate the quality of reporting of published studies using the SLP for diagnosing glaucoma. METHODS: A validated Medline and hand search of English-language articles reporting on measures of diagnostic accuracy of the SLP for glaucoma was performed. Two reviewers independently selected and appraised the manuscripts. The Standards for Reporting of Diagnostic Accuracy (STARD) checklist was used to evaluate the quality of each publication. RESULTS: A total of 47 papers were identified of which the first 10 (from 1997 to 2000) and the last 10 articles (from 2004 to 2005) were appraised. Interobserver rating agreement of STARD items was high (85.5% agreement, ?=0.796). The number of STARD items properly reported ranged from 3/25 to 19/25. Only a quarter of studies (5/20) explicitly reported more than half of the STARD items. Important aspects of the methodology were often missing such as participant sampling (reported in 40% of manuscripts), masking of the readers of the index test and reference standard (reported in 20% of manuscripts), and estimation of uncertainty (eg, 95% confidence intervals, reported in 25% of manuscripts). There was a slight increase in the number of STARD items reported with time. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of reporting of diagnostic accuracy tests for glaucoma with SLP is suboptimal. The STARD initiative may be a useful tool for appraising the strengths and weaknesses of diagnostic accuracy studies. © 2007 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, Inc.

Agreement between clinical and ultrasound biomicroscopy findings in different types of glaucoma

Purpose. To evaluate agreement between clinical examination (slit lamp examination and gonioscopy) and ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM) in characterizing various features of the anterior chamber angle and adjacent structures. Methods. Twenty-eight patients (51 eyes) with open angle glaucoma (14), closed angle glaucoma (4), narrow angle and/or plateau iris (10), who had undergone UBM between March 94 and September 95 were studied. Evaluated parameters included angle width, iris configuration and presence of angle closure. The UBMs were reviewed in a masked fashion. Results. In 87.8% of cases there was agreement (within 10 degrees) between gonioscopic and UBM estimates of angle width. In all cases with greater than 10 degrees difference (12.2%) the angle size estimated by UBM was less than that estimated clinically. Iris configuration was graded identically in 51% of cases; the majority of disagreements (76.1%) occurred in cases graded as "regular" by gonioscopy and as "steep" by UBM. Angle closure was judged to be present more frequently by UBM. Conclusions. UBM and gonioscopy do not necessarily yield identical values for angle width, iris configuration, and presence of angle closure.

Effect of cataract extraction on the Glaucoma Progression Index (GPI) in glaucoma patients

PURPOSE: To determine the effect of cataract extraction on the glaucoma progression index (GPI) in glaucoma patients with coexisting cataract.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective noncomparative study. Consecutive eligible patients with glaucoma who underwent phacoemulsification alone or in combination with augmented trabeculectomy were included. All patients had Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm-standard 24-2 visual fields within 10 months of surgery. Exclusion criteria included other ocular morbidity, intraoperative complications, and perimetric reliability indices greater than 33%. Comparison was made between the immediate visual fields before and after surgery. The main outcome measure was the change in GPI. Changes in the pattern standard deviation (PSD) and mean deviation (MD) were also assessed. Comparison of means was performed with the paired t test.

RESULTS: Thirty-three eyes of 33 patients (all Whites) were analyzed. The mean age at surgery was 77.0+/-8.7 years. Visual field tests were performed 3.3+/-3.0 months SD before surgery and 5.4+/-2.6 months after surgery. There was a statistically significant increase in the GPI after cataract surgery (from 71.5+/-18.5% to 74.6+/-17.1%; P=0.02). The improvement in MD was also statistically significant (from -11.8+/-5.3 to -10.2+/-5.3 dB; P <0.01), but the change in PSD did not reach statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS: Uncomplicated cataract extraction resulted in a statistically significant improvement in the 24-2 Swedish Interactive Threshold Algorithm-standard GPI and MD, but not in PSD. Both the MD and the GPI may be influenced by lens opacities, which could make detection of glaucoma visual field progression more difficult for clinicians in glaucoma patients with concurrent cataract.

Systematic review of the agreement of tonometers with Goldmann applanation tonometry

OBJECTIVE: To assess the agreement of tonometers available for clinical practice with the Goldmann applanation tonometer (GAT), the most commonly accepted reference device.

DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis of directly comparative studies assessing the agreement of 1 or more tonometers with the reference tonometer (GAT).

PARTICIPANTS: A total of 11 582 participants (15 525 eyes) were included.

METHODS: Summary 95% limits of agreement (LoA) were produced for each comparison.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Agreement, recordability, and reliability.

RESULTS: A total of 102 studies, including 130 paired comparisons, were included, representing 8 tonometers: dynamic contour tonometer, noncontact tonometer (NCT), ocular response analyzer, Ocuton S, handheld applanation tonometer (HAT), rebound tonometer, transpalpebral tonometer, and Tono-Pen. The agreement (95% limits) seemed to vary across tonometers: 0.2 mmHg (-3.8 to 4.3 mmHg) for the NCT to 2.7 mmHg (-4.1 to 9.6 mmHg) for the Ocuton S. The estimated proportion within 2 mmHg of the GAT ranged from 33% (Ocuton S) to 66% and 59% (NCT and HAT, respectively). Substantial inter- and intraobserver variability were observed for all tonometers.

CONCLUSIONS: The NCT and HAT seem to achieve a measurement closest to the GAT. However, there was substantial variability in measurements both within and between studies.

Detection of changes of the optic disc in glaucomatous eyes:Clinical examination and image analysis with the Topcon Imagenet system

Purpose: This study was designed to evaluate the clinical agreement in the detection of optic disc changes and the ability of computerized image analysis to detect glaucomatous deterioration of the optic disc. Methods: Pairs of stereophotographs of 35 glaucomatous optic discs taken 5 years apart and of 5 glaucomatous discs photographed twice on the same day. Two glaucoma specialists examined the pairs of stereophotographs (35 cases and 5 controls) in a masked manner and judged whether the optic disc showed changes in the optic disc compatible with progression of glaucomatous damage. The stereophotographs of the five optic discs photographed twice on the same day (which by definition did not change) and of five cases judged to have deteriorated by both glaucoma specialists were analyzed by computerized image analysis with the Topcon ImageNet system. Intra- and inter-observer agreement in the detection of optic disc changes (evaluated using kappa statistic), and changes in the rim area to disc area ratio (evaluated using descriptive statistics and paired t-test). Results: Intra-observer agreement had a kappa value of 0.75 for observer 1 and 0.60 for the observer 2. Inter-observer agreement between the glaucoma specialists had a kappa value of 0.60. The image analyzer did not discriminate between controls and cases with clinically apparent glaucomatous change of the optic disc. Conclusion: Clinical agreement in detecting changes in the optic disc was moderate to substantial. Computerized image analysis with the Topcon ImageNet system appeared not to be useful in detecting glaucomatous changes of the optic disc.

Perimetric progression in open angle glaucoma and the Visual Field Index (VFI)

PURPOSE: To evaluate the changes in the Visual Field Index (VFI) in eyes with perimetric glaucomatous progression, and to compare these against stable glaucoma patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with open angle glaucoma with a minimum of 6 reliable visual fields and 2 years of follow-up were identified. Perimetric progression was assessed by 4 masked glaucoma experts from different units, and classified into 3 categories: "definite progression," "suspected progression," or "no progression." This was compared with the Glaucoma Progression Analysis (GPA) II and VFI linear regression analysis, where progression was defined as a negative slope with significance of <5%.

RESULTS: Three hundred ninety-seven visual fields from 51 eyes of 39 patients were assessed. The mean number of visual fields was 7.8 (SD 1.1) per eye, and the mean follow-up duration was 63.7 (SD 13.4) months. The mean VFI linear regression slope showed an overall statistically significant difference (P<0.001, analysis of variance) for each category of progression. Using expert consensus opinion as the reference standard, both VFI analysis and GPA II had high specificity (0.93 and 0.90, respectively), but relatively low sensitivity (0.45 and 0.41, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: The mean VFI regression slope in our cohort of eyes without perimetric progression showed a statistically significant difference compared with those with suspected and definite progression. VFI analysis and GPA II both had similarly high specificity but low sensitivity when compared with expert consensus opinion.

Intraobserver and interobserver agreement in evaluating the anterior chamber angle configuration by ultrasound biomicroscopy

Purpose: To determine the intra- and interobserver agreement in assessing the configuration of the human anterior chamber angle using ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM). Methods: Two masked clinicians used ubm images to estimate, in 41 eyes, (a) the position of contact between the peripheral iris and the inside of the eye wall, (b) the angular size of the anterior chamber angle (ACA), and (c) the curvature of the peripheral iris. Both observers, masked to the previous results, examined the same images in a second session. Agreement was evaluated using the unweighted ? statistic. Results: Intraobserver agreement in assessing the iris insertion, angular width, and the iris curvature was high (range of ? values, 0.83-0.92). Interobserver agreement in evaluating the level of iris insertion (? = 0.79), the angular width (? = 0.95), and the iris curvature (? = 0.84) was also high. Conclusion: The agreement within the same observer and between observers in evaluating the ACA configuration by UBM was excellent.

Liquid densities, heat capacities, refractive index and excess quantities for {protic ionic liquids plus water} binary system

Densities, rho, of aqueous solutions of the room temperature protic ionic liquid (PIL), pyrrolidinium nitrate are determined at the atmospheric pressure over the temperature range from (283.15 to 323.15) K and within the whole composition range. The molar isobaric heat capacities, C(p), and refractive index, n(D), of {PIL + water} binary system are measured at 298.15 K. The excess molar volumes V(E), excess molar isobaric heat capacities C(p)(E), and deviation from ideality of refractive index Delta(phi)n, of pyrrolidinium nitrate aqueous solutions were deduced from the experimental results as well as apparent molar volumes V(phi), partial molar volumes (V) over bar (m,i), and thermal expansion coefficients alpha(p). The V(E) values were found to be positive over the entire composition range at all temperatures studied therein, whereas deviations from ideality were negative for refractive index Delta(phi)n. The volumetric properties of binary mixtures containing water and four other protic ionic liquids, such as pyrrolidinium hydrogen sulfate, pyrrolidinium formiate, collidinium formate, and diisopropyl-ethylammonium formate were also determined at 298.15 K. Results have been then discussed in terms of molecular interactions and molecular structures in these binary mixtures. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Irish High Court Issues its First Order on a Commitment Agreement between the NCA and an Undertaking (Fitflop)

The Irish Competition (Amendment) Act 2012 introduced court-endorsed commitment agreements to Irish competition law. The new section 14B of the principal Competition Act 2002 provides for making commitment agreements between the Irish Competition and undertakings an order of the Irish High Court. This piece, first, investigates the prior Irish practice regarding commitment or settlement agreements and its legal basis. It looks then into the newly introduced rules on court-endorsed commitment agreements. Finally, before concluding, it points to the first instance of their application — to an order issued by the High Court in the FitFlop case in December 2012, which came into effect in February 2013.

A Probe-Goal Approach to Agreement and Incorporation Restrictions in Southern Tiwa

Southern Tiwa (Tanoan) exhibits agreement with up to three arguments (ergative, absolutive, dative). This agreement is subject to certain restrictions resembling the Person-Case Constraint paradigm (Bonet 1991). Moreover, there is a correlation between agreement restrictions and conditions on (the obviation of) noun-incorporation in Southern Tiwa, as explicitly and elegantly captured by Rosen (1990) in terms of a heterogeneous feature hierarchy and rules of association. We attempt to recast Rosen’s central insights in terms of Anagnostopoulou’s probe-sharing model of Person-Case Constraint effects (Anagnostopoulou 2003, 2006), to show that the full range of Southern Tiwa agreement and (non-)incorporation restrictions can be given a single, unified analysis within the probe-goal-Agree framework of Chomsky (2001). In particular, we argue that Southern Tiwa’s triple-agreement system is characterized by (a) an independent class probe located on the heads T and v, and (b) a rule that allows this class probe to be deleted in the context of local-person T-agreement. The various restrictions on agreement and non-incorporation then reduce to a single source: failure of class-valuation with DP (as opposed to NP) arguments.