Discrete Conditional Phase-type models utilising classification trees: Application to modelling health service capacities

Discrete Conditional Phase-type (DC-Ph) models consist of a process component (survival distribution) preceded by a set of related conditional discrete variables. This paper introduces a DC-Ph model where the conditional component is a classification tree. The approach is utilised for modelling health service capacities by better predicting service times, as captured by Coxian Phase-type distributions, interfaced with results from a classification tree algorithm. To illustrate the approach, a case-study within the healthcare delivery domain is given, namely that of maternity services. The classification analysis is shown to give good predictors for complications during childbirth. Based on the classification tree predictions, the duration of childbirth on the labour ward is then modelled as either a two or three-phase Coxian distribution. The resulting DC-Ph model is used to calculate the number of patients and associated bed occupancies, patient turnover, and to model the consequences of changes to risk status.

The Economic Costs of Health Service Treatments for Asbestos-Related Mesothelioma Deaths

This article explores the complex and neglected picture of occupational and environmental disease healthcare costs specifically relating to asbestos. Diagnosed mesothelioma cases in Scotland in one calendar year were used to investigate the subject in greater depth. Data from UK sources on asbestos disease types recorded in 2000 and their disease treatment costs were obtained. Acute care economic costs of these diseases are estimated. One hundred and twenty diagnosed, recorded, and treated cases of asbestos-related diseases occurred in 2000 in Scotland. Mesothelioma accounted for 100 cases and directly cost Scottish National Health Service hospitals an estimated 942,038 pounds. The estimated UK figure in 2000 was at least 16,014,646 pounds because official figures for diagnosed and recorded deaths from mesothelioma are running at over 1700 a year with rises predicted for 2010 of 2000 deaths. By 2003, 50,000 people in the UK had died from diagnosed and recorded mesothelioma since records began. Earlier disease treatment costs would have been significantly lower than those in 2000 but, at 2000 prices, cost to the UK was roughly 471,019,000 pounds in acute hospital expenditure. Figures for primary care costs, including caregiver costs, are incomplete or unknown. These disease costs are substantial and have some international generalizability. Treatment patterns and costs vary greatly. Many lung cancer cases due to asbestos exposure occur globally for each mesothelioma case. Hence figures provided in this article are certain to be gross underestimates of the total health service and personal economic costs of asbestos illness and treatment in Scotland.

Availability of complementary and alternative medicine for people with cancer in the British National Health Service: Results of a national survey

This study assessed access to Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) therapies for people with cancer within the British National Health Service. CAM units were identified through an internet search in 2009. A total of 142 units, providing 62 different therapies, were identified: 105 (74.0%) England; 23 (16.2%) Scotland; 7 (4.9%) each in Wales and Northern Ireland. Most units provide a small number of therapies (median 4, range 1–20), and focus on complementary, rather than alternative approaches. Counselling is the most widely provided therapy (available at 82.4% of identified units), followed by reflexology (62.0%), aromatherapy (59.1%), reiki (43.0%), massage (42.2%). CAM units per million of the population varied between countries (England: 2.2; Wales: 2.3; Scotland: 4.8; Northern Ireland: 5.0), and within countries. Better publicity for CAM units, greater integration of units in conventional cancer treatment centres may help improve access to CAMs.

Choice of contracts in the British National Health Service: An empirical study

Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The experiences of palliative care health service provision for people with non-malignant respiratory disease and their caregivers: an all-Ireland study

Aim: To explore the perception of palliative care provision for people with non-malignant respiratory disease from the perspective of bereaved caregivers.

Background: It is recognized that the majority of patients diagnosed with a malignant disease will have access to palliative care provision. However, it is less clear if the same standards of palliative care are available to those with non-malignant respiratory disease in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Design: A qualitative study based on broad interpretivism.

Methods: This research is a PhD study funded by the Department of Education and Learning in Northern Ireland (awarded February 2011). Data collection will consist of two stages; interviews with 20 bereaved caregivers of people who have died 3–18 months previously with a diagnosis of non-malignant respiratory disease and four focus groups with healthcare professionals involved in the care of this client group. This study will be carried out at four healthcare sites across the Island of Ireland. The data will be analysed using thematic content analysis. Research Ethics committee approval was obtained (March 2012).

Discussion: This research will explore the experiences of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Interstitial Lung Disease and Bronchiectasis and their caregivers from the perspective of the bereaved caregiver. The outcomes of this study will provide a critical first step in the development of more responsive palliative care for this client group and have important implications for future practice and policy in the palliative care provided to this client group.

Assessing health service needs:tools for health planning.

As fiscal pressures mount, health-planning and decision-making at smaller geographics scales must be more effective. Involving local constituents in needs assessments, it is believed, would lead to better identification and serving of regional demands and needs for health services. This article examines needs assessment as a tool to determine a community's service needs and establish priorities for the creation of programs. Various approaches used in needs assessments are described, including survey methods, structured groups and geographic information systems.

An international review of the patterns and determinants of health service utilisation by adult cancer survivors

Background: There is a need to review factors related to health service utilisation by the increasing number of cancer survivors in order to inform care planning and the organisation and delivery of services.

Methods: Studies were identified via systematic searches of Medline, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Social Science Citation Index and the SEER-MEDICARE library. Methodological quality was assessed using STROBE; and the Andersen Behavioural Model was used as a framework to structure, organise and analyse the results of the review.

Results: Younger, white cancer survivors were most likely to receive follow-up screening, preventive care, visit their physician, utilise professional mental health services and least likely to be hospitalised. Utilisation rates of other health professionals such as physiotherapists were low. Only studies of health service use conducted in the USA investigated the role of type of health insurance and ethnicity. There appeared to be disparate service use among US samples in terms of ethnicity and socio-demographic status, regardless of type of health insurance provisions- this may be explained by underlying differences in health-seeking behaviours. Overall, use of follow-up care appeared to be lower than expected and barriers existed for particular groups of cancer survivors.

Conclusions: Studies focussed on the use of a specific type of service rather than adopting a whole-system approach and future health services research should address this shortcoming. Overall, there is a need to improve access to care for all cancer survivors. Studies were predominantly US-based focussing mainly on breast or colorectal cancer. Thus, the generalisability of findings to other health-care systems and cancer sites is unclear. The Andersen Behavioural Model provided an appropriate framework for studying and understanding health service use among cancer survivors. The active involvement of physicians and use of personalised care plans are required in order to ensure that post-treatment needs and recommendations for care are met.

The health status and health service needs of primary caregivers of cancer survivors: a mixed methods approach

This study aimed to measure the health status and care needs of people who provide informal care to cancer survivors in the UK. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 24 cancer professionals to identify the care needs of caregivers. In addition, we conducted a postal survey measuring the health and wellbeing (SF-36) and health service utilisation of 98 primary caregivers of a random sample of cancer survivors, 2-20 years post-treatment. Interviews indicated that caregivers’ needs were largely unmet. In particular, there appeared to be a need in relation to statutory health care provision, information, psychological support and involvement in decision making. There were no significant differences between survivors and caregivers in terms of mental health scores; and caregivers performed better on physical health domains compared to cancer survivors. Compared to UK norms and norms for caregivers of other chronic conditions, cancer caregivers had substantially lower scores on each SF-36 health domain. Cancer may impact negatively on an informal caregiver’s health long after treatment has ended. Providing appropriate and cancer specific information may alleviate difficulties and improve health and wellbeing. Specific concentration should be given to the development and delivery of information support for caregivers of post-treatment cancer survivors.

Chronic kidney disease and diabetes in the National Health Service:a cross-sectional survey of the UK National Diabetes Audit

We investigated the prevalence of chronic kidney disease and attainment of therapeutic targets for HbA1c and blood pressure in a large UK-based diabetes population.

Evaluation of a partnership between primary and secondary care providing an accessible Level 1 sexual health service in the community

Comprehensive testing for asymptomatic sexually transmitted infections in Northern Ireland has traditionally been provided by genitourinary medicine clinics. As patient demand for services has increased while budgets have remained limited, there has been increasing difficulty in accommodating this demand. In May 2013, the newly commissioned specialist Sexual Health service in the South Eastern Trust sought to pilot a new model of care working alongside a GP partnership of 12 practices. A training programme to enable GPs and practice nurses to deliver Level 1 sexual health care to heterosexual patients aged >16 years, in accordance with the standards of BASHH, was developed. A comprehensive care pathway and dedicated community health advisor supported this new model with close liaison between primary and secondary care. Testing for Chlamydia, gonorrhoea, HIV and syphilis was offered. The aims of the pilot were achieved, namely to provide accessible, cost-effective sexual health care within a framework of robust clinical governance. Furthermore, it uncovered a high positivity rate for Chlamydia, especially in young men attending their general practice, and demonstrated a high level of patient satisfaction. Moreover the capacity of secondary care to deliver Levels 2 and 3 services was increased.

Regress? React? Resolve?: An evaluation of mental health service provision in Northern Ireland

Report prepared for Action Mental Health by Queen’s University Belfast