Late-Holocene marine radiocarbon reservoir correction (Delta R) for the west coast of South Africa

In order to calibrate radiocarbon ages based on samples with a marine carbon component it is important to know the marine carbon reservoir correction or Delta R value. This study measured the Delta R on both known-age pre-bomb marine shells and paired marine and terrestrial samples from two regions on the west coast of South Africa: the southwestern Cape and Namaqualand. Pooling the data by region produces Delta R values that are similar enough to use a west coast weighted mean Delta R of 146 +/- 85 C-14 years to correctly calibrate marine shell or mixed marine and terrestrial C-14 ages. There are however temporal differences in Delta R throughout the Holocene, which we compare with proxy data for upwelling and sea surface temperatures.

A numerical investigation of the flow structures and losses for turbulent flow in 90 degrees elbow bends

Computational fluid dynamic modelling was carried out on a series of pipe bends having R/r values of 1.3, 5, and 20, with the purpose of determining the accuracy of numerical models in predicting pressure loss data from which to inform one-dimensional loss models. Four separate turbulence models were studied: the standard k-epsilon model, realizable k-epsilon model, k-omega model, and a Reynolds stress model (RSM). The results are presented for each bend in the form of upstream and downstream pressure profiles, pressure distributions along the inner and outer walls, detailed pressure and velocity fields as well as overall loss values. In each case, measured data were presented to evaluate the predictive ability of each model. The RSM was found to perform the best, producing accurate pressure loss data for bends with R/r values of 5 and 20. For the tightest bend with an R/r value of 1.3, however, predictions were significantly worse due to the presence of flow separation, stronger pressure gradients, and high streamline curvature.

Palynological perspectives on vegetation survey: a critical step for model-based reconstruction of Quaternary land cover

1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.

Can diagnostic triage by general practitioners or rheumatology nurses improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics?

Objectives: To determine whether diagnostic triage by general practitioners (GPs) or rheumatology nurses (RNs) can improve the positive predictive value of referrals to early arthritis clinics (EACs).

Methods: Four GPs and two RNs were trained in the assessment of early in?ammatory arthritis (IA) by four visits to an EAC supervised by hospital rheumatologists. Patients referred to one of three EACs were recruited for study and assessed independently by a GP, an RN and one of six rheumatologists. Each assessor was asked to record their clinical ?ndings and whether they considered the patient to have IA. Each was then asked to judge the appropriateness of the referral according to predetermined guidelines. The rheumatologists had been shown previously to have a satisfactory level of agreement in the assessment of IA.

Results: Ninety-six patients were approached and all consented to take part in the study. In 49 cases (51%), the rheumatologist judged that the patient had IA and that the referral was appropriate. The assessments of GPs and RNs were compared with those of the rheumatologists. Levels of agreement were measured using the kappa value, where 1.0 represents total unanimity. The kappa value was
0.77 for the GPs when compared with the rheumatologists and 0.79 for the RNs. Signi?cant stiffness in the morning or after rest and objective joint swelling were the most important clinical features enabling the GPs and RNs to discriminate between IA and non-IA conditions.

Conclusion: Diagnostic triage by GPs or RNs improved the positive predictive value of referrals to an EAC with a degree of accuracy approaching that of a group of experienced rheumatologists.

Fighting for shells: how private information about resource value changes hermit crab pre-fight displays and escalated fight behaviour

Pre-fight displays typically provide honest, but sometimes dishonest, information about resource holding potential and may be influenced by assessment of resource value and hence motivation to acquire the resource. These assessments of potential costs and benefits are also predicted to influence escalated fight behaviour. This is examined in shell exchange contests of hermit crabs in which we establish an information asymmetry about a particularly poor quality shell. The poor shell was created by gluing sand to the interior whereas control shells lacked sand and the low value of the poor shell could not be accurately assessed by the opponent. Crabs in the poor shell showed changes in the use of pre-fight displays, apparently to increase the chances of swapping shells. When the fights escalated, crabs in poor shells fought harder if they took the role of attacker but gave up quickly if in the defender role. These tactics appear to be adaptive but do not result in a major shift in the roles taken or outcome. We thus link resource assessment with pre-fight displays, the roles taken, tactics used during escalation and the outcome of these contests.

Sustainable Value Creation among Companies in the Manufacturing Sector

In this paper, we present empirical results of a study on the creation of Sustainable Value among European manufacturing companies. As sustainable development is a future oriented concept we assess the use of environmental resources in companies in the light of the EU15 performance targets for 2010. By using the Sustainable Value approach and based on publicly available company data we measure in monetary terms how individual companies perform vis-a-vis the 2010 performance targets already today. This shows the specific exposure and vulnerability of companies to more stringent policy regimes, and allows meaningful comparisons between both companies and sectors.