Investigating the efficiency of fitting Coxian phase-type distributions to health care data

Coxian phase-type distributions are becoming a popular means of representing survival times within a health care environment. They are favoured as they show a distribution as a system of phases and can allow for an easy visual representation of the rate of flow of patients through a system. Difficulties arise, however, in determining the parameter estimates of the Coxian phase-type distribution. This paper examines ways of making the fitting of the Coxian phase-type distribution less cumbersome by outlining different software packages and algorithms available to perform the fit and assessing their capabilities through a number of performance measures. The performance measures rate each of the methods and help in identifying the more efficient. Conclusions drawn from these performance measures suggest SAS to be the most robust package. It has a high rate of convergence in each of the four example model fits considered, short computational times, detailed output, convergence criteria options, along with a succinct ability to switch between different algorithms.

The Effect of Human RIghts on Criminal Evidentiary Processes: Convergence, Divergence or Realignment?

This article examines the contribution which the European Court of Human Rights has made to the development of common evidentiary processes across the common law and civil law systems of criminal procedure in Europe. It is argued that the continuing use of terms such as 'adversarial' and 'inquisitorial' to describe models of criminal proof and procedure has obscured the genuinely transformative nature of the Court's jurisprudence. It is shown that over a number of years the Court has been steadily developing a new model of proof that is better characterised as 'participatory' than as 'adversarial' or 'inquisitorial'. Instead of leading towards a convergence of existing 'adversarial' and 'inquisitorial' models of proof, this is more likely to lead towards a realignment of existing processes of proof which nonetheless allows plenty of scope for diverse application in different institutional and cultural settings.

Heterogeneity, convergence, and autocorrelations

This paper is a contribution to the literature on the explanatory power and calibration of heterogeneous asset pricing models. We set out a new stochastic market-fraction asset pricing model of fundamentalists and trend followers under a market maker. Our model explains key features of financial market behaviour such as market dominance, convergence to the fundamental price and under- and over-reaction. We use the dynamics of the underlying deterministic system to characterize these features and statistical properties, including convergence of the limiting distribution and autocorrelation structure. We confirm these properties using Monte Carlo simulations.