Physical and dynamical characterisation of low ΔV NEA (190491) 2000 FJ10

Aims: We investigated the physical properties and dynamical evolution of near-Earth asteroid (NEA) (190491) 2000 FJ10 in order to assess the suitability of this accessible NEA as a space mission target. Methods: Photometry and colour determination were carried out with the 1.54 m Kuiper Telescope (Mt Bigelow, USA) and the 10 m Southern African Large Telescope (SALT; Sutherland, South Africa) during the object's recent favourable apparition in 2011-12. During the earlier 2008 apparition, a spectrum of the object in the 6000-9000 Angstrom region was obtained with the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope (WHT; Canary Islands, Spain). Interpretation of the observational results was aided by numerical simulations of 1000 dynamical clones of 2000 FJ10 up to 106 yr in the past and in the future. Results: The asteroid's spectrum and colours determined by our observations suggest a taxonomic classification within the S-complex although other classifications (V, D, E, M, P) cannot be ruled out. On this evidence, it is unlikely to be a primitive, relatively unaltered remnant from the early history of the solar system and thus a low priority target for robotic sample return. Our photometry placed a lower bound of 2 h to the asteroid's rotation period. Its absolute magnitude was estimated to be 21.54 ± 0.1 which, for a typical S-complex albedo, translates into a diameter of 130 ± 20 m. Our dynamical simulations show that it has likely been an Amor for the past 105 yr. Although currently not Earth-crossing, it will likely become so during the period 50-100 kyr in the future. It may have arrived from the inner or central main belt >1 Myr ago as a former member of a low-inclination S-class asteroid family. Its relatively slow rotation and large size make it a suitable destination for a human mission. We show that ballistic Earth-190491-Earth transfer trajectories with ΔV <2 km s-1 at the asteroid exist between 2052 and 2061. Based on observations made with the Southern African Large Telescope (SALT).

A critical ethnography of communication processes involving the management of oral chemotherapeutic agents by patients with a primary diagnosis of colorectal cancer: study protocol

Aim
To describe the protocol used to examine the processes of communication between health professionals, patients and informal carers during the management of oral chemotherapeutic medicines to identify factors that promote or inhibit medicine concordance.

Background
Ideally communication practices about oral medicines should incorporate shared decision-making, two-way dialogue and an equality of role between practitioner and patient. While there is evidence that healthcare professionals are adopting these concordant elements in general practice there are still some patients who have a passive role during consultations. Considering oral chemotherapeutic medications, there is a paucity of research about communication practices which is surprising given the high risk of toxicity associated with chemotherapy.

Design
A critical ethnographic design will be used, incorporating non-participant observations, individual semi-structured and focus-group interviews as several collecting methods.

Methods
Observations will be carried out on the interactions between healthcare professionals (physicians, nurses and pharmacists) and patients in the outpatient departments where prescriptions are explained and supplied and on follow-up consultations where treatment regimens are monitored. Interviews will be conducted with patients and their informal carers. Focus-groups will be carried out with healthcare professionals at the conclusion of the study. These several will be analysed using thematic analysis. This research is funded by the Department for Employment and Learning in Northern Ireland (Awarded February 2012).

Discussion
Dissemination of these findings will contribute to the understanding of issues involved when communicating with people about oral chemotherapy. It is anticipated that findings will inform education, practice and policy.

Maternal age at birth and childhood type 1 diabetes: a pooled analysis of 30 observational studies

OBJECTIVE - The aim if the study was to investigate whether children born to older mothers have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies using individual patient data to adjust for recognized confounders.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - Relevant studies published before June 2009 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE. Authors of studies were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct prespecified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by maternal age were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios and to investigate heterogeneity among studies.
RESULTS - Data were available for 5 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 14,724 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was, on average, a 5% (95% CI 2-9) increase in childhood type 1 diabetes odds per 5-year increase in maternal age (P = 0.006), but there was heterogeneity among studies (heterogeneity I 2 = 70%). In studies with a low risk of bias, there was a more marked increase in diabetes odds of 10% per 5-year increase in maternal age. Adjustments for potential confounders little altered these estimates. CONCLUSIONS - There was evidence of a weak but significant linear increase in the risk of childhood type 1 diabetes across the range of maternal ages, but the magnitude of association varied between studies. A very small percentage of the increase in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in recent years could be explained by increases in maternal age.

Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether children who are heavier at birth have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Methods: Relevant studies published before February 2009 were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of all studies containing relevant data were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct pre-specified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by category of birthweight were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Results: Data were available for 29 predominantly European studies (five cohort, 24 case-control studies), including 12,807 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, studies consistently demonstrated that children with birthweight from 3.5 to 4 kg had an increased risk of diabetes of 6% (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]; p=0.02) and children with birthweight over 4 kg had an increased risk of 10% (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.19]; p=0.003), compared with children weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg at birth. This corresponded to a linear increase in diabetes risk of 3% per 500 g increase in birthweight (OR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]; p=0.03). Adjustments for potential confounders such as gestational age, maternal age, birth order, Caesarean section, breastfeeding and maternal diabetes had little effect on these findings. Conclusions/interpretation: Children who are heavier at birth have a significant and consistent, but relatively small increase in risk of type 1 diabetes. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.


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Revealing differences in gene network inference algorithms on the network level by ensemble methods

Motivation: The inference of regulatory networks from large-scale expression data holds great promise because of the potentially causal interpretation of these networks. However, due to the difficulty to establish reliable methods based on observational data there is so far only incomplete knowledge about possibilities and limitations of such inference methods in this context.

Results: In this article, we conduct a statistical analysis investigating differences and similarities of four network inference algorithms, ARACNE, CLR, MRNET and RN, with respect to local network-based measures. We employ ensemble methods allowing to assess the inferability down to the level of individual edges. Our analysis reveals the bias of these inference methods with respect to the inference of various network components and, hence, provides guidance in the interpretation of inferred regulatory networks from expression data. Further, as application we predict the total number of regulatory interactions in human B cells and hypothesize about the role of Myc and its targets regarding molecular information processing.

Caesarean section is associated with an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: A meta-analysis of observational studies

Aims/hypothesis: The aim of this study was to investigate the evidence of an increased risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section by systematically reviewing the published literature and performing a meta-analysis with adjustment for recognised confounders.
Methods: After MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE searches, crude ORs and 95% CIs for type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section were calculated from the data reported in each study. Authors were contacted to facilitate adjustments for potential confounders, either by supplying raw data or calculating adjusted estimates. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and to investigate heterogeneity between studies.
Results: Twenty studies were identified. Overall, there was a significant increase in the risk of type 1 diabetes in children born by Caesarean section (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.15-1.32, p<0.001). There was little evidence of heterogeneity between studies (p=0.54). Seventeen authors provided raw data or adjusted estimates to facilitate adjustments for potential confounders. In these studies, there was evidence of an increase in diabetes risk with greater birthweight, shorter gestation and greater maternal age. The increased risk of type 1 diabetes after Caesarean section was little altered after adjustment for gestational age, birth weight, maternal age, birth order, breast-feeding and maternal diabetes (adjusted OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36, p=0.01).
Conclusions/interpretation: This analysis demonstrates a 20% increase in the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes after Caesarean section delivery that cannot be explained by known confounders.

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Observational tests of interstellar methanol formation

Context. It has been established that the classical gas-phase production of interstellar methanol (CH3OH) cannot explain observed abundances. Instead it is now generally thought that the main formation path has to be by successive hydrogenation of solid CO on interstellar grain surfaces. Aims. While theoretical models and laboratory experiments show that methanol is efficiently formed from CO on cold grains, our aim is to test this scenario by astronomical observations of gas associated with young stellar objects (YSOs). Methods. We have observed the rotational transition quartets J = 2K – 1K of 12CH3OH and 13CH3OH at 96.7 and 94.4 GHz, respectively, towards a sample of massive YSOs in different stages of evolution. In addition, the J = 1-0 transitions of 12C18O and 13C18O were observed towards some of these sources. We use the 12C/13C ratio to discriminate between gas-phase and grain surface origin: If methanol is formed from CO on grains, the ratios should be similar in CH3OH and CO. If not, the ratio should be higher in CH3OH due to 13C fractionation in cold CO gas. We also estimate the abundance ratios between the nuclear spin types of methanol (E and A). If methanol is formed on grains, this ratio is likely to have been thermalized at the low physical temperature of the grain, and therefore show a relative over-abundance of A-methanol. Results. We show that the 12C/13C isotopic ratio is very similar in gas-phase CH3OH and C18O, on the spatial scale of about 40 arcsec, towards four YSOs. For two of our sources we find an overabundance of A-methanol as compared to E-methanol, corresponding to nuclear spin temperatures of 10 and 16 K. For the remaining five sources, the methanol E/A ratio is less than unity. Conclusions. While the 12C/13C ratio test is consistent with methanol formation from hydrogenation of CO on grain surfaces, the result of the E/A ratio test is inconclusive.

Breast-feeding and childhood-onset type 1 diabetes:A pooled analysis of individual participant data from 43 observational studies

OBJECTIVE: To investigate if there is a reduced risk of type 1 diabetes in children breastfed or exclusively breastfed by performing a pooled analysis with adjustment for recognized confounders.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Relevant studies were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science, and EMBASE. Authors of relevant studies were asked to provide individual participant data or conduct prespecified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to combine odds ratios (ORs) and investigate heterogeneity between studies.
RESULTS: Data were available from 43 studies including 9,874 patients with type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was a reduction in the risk of diabetes after exclusive breast-feeding for >2 weeks (20 studies; OR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.64-0.88), the association after exclusive breast-feeding for >3 months was weaker (30 studies; OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.75-1.00), and no association was observed after (nonexclusive) breast-feeding for >2 weeks (28 studies; OR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.81-1.07) or >3 months (29 studies; OR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00). These associations were all subject to marked heterogeneity (I(2) = 58, 76, 54, and 68%, respectively). In studies with lower risk of bias, the reduced risk after exclusive breast-feeding for >2 weeks remained (12 studies; OR = 0.86, 95% CI 0.75-0.99), and heterogeneity was reduced (I(2) = 0%). Adjustments for potential confounders altered these estimates very little.
CONCLUSIONS: The pooled analysis suggests weak protective associations between exclusive breast-feeding and type 1 diabetes risk. However, these findings are difficult to interpret because of the marked variation in effect and possible biases (particularly recall bias) inherent in the included studies.

Associations between maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related stress among low-risk mothers: An observational cross-sectional study

Background: Pregnancy is viewed as a major life event and, while the majority of healthy, low-risk women adapt well to pregnancy, there are those whose levels of stress are heightened by the experience.

Objectives: To determine the level of pregnancy-related stress experienced by a group of healthy, low-risk pregnant women and to relate the level of stress with a number of maternal characteristics.

Design: An observational cross-sectional study.

Setting: A large, urban maternity centre in Northern Ireland.

Participants: Of the 306 pregnant women who were invited to participate, 278 provided informed consent and were administered one self-complete questionnaire. Due to the withdrawal criteria, 15 questionnaires were removed from the analysis, resulting in a final sample of 263 healthy, low-risk pregnant women.

Methods: Levels of stress were measured using a self-report measure designed to assess specific worries and concerns relating to pregnancy. Maternal characteristics collected included age, marital status, social status, parity, obstetric history, perceived health status and 'wantedness' for the pregnancy. Regression analysis was undertaken using an ordinary linear regression model.

Results: The mean prenatal distress score in the sample was 15.1 (SD = 7.4; range 0-46). The regression model showed that women who had had previous pregnancies, with or without complications, had significantly lower mean prenatal distress scores than primiparous women (p < 0.01). Women reporting poorer physical health had higher mean prenatal distress scores than those who reported at least average health, while women aged 16-20 experienced a mean increase in the reported prenatal distress score (p < 0.05) in comparison to the reference group of 36 years and over.

Conclusions: This study brings to light the prevalence of pregnancy-related stress within a sample representative of healthy, low-risk women. Current antenatal care is ill-equipped to identify women suffering from high levels of stress; yet a growing body of research evidence links stress with adverse pregnancy outcomes. This study emphasises that healthy, low-risk women experience a range of pregnancy-related stress and identification of stress levels, either through the use of a simple stress measurement tool or through the associated factors identified within this research study, provides valuable data on maternal well-being. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Observational Study of Blood Concentrations and Kinetics of Methyl- and Propyl-Parabens in Neonates

Purpose: Systemic exposure to parabens in the neonatal population, in particular propyl-parabens (PPB), remains a concern. Blood concentrations and kinetics of methyl-parabens (MPB) and PPB were therefore determined in neonates receiving medicines containing these excipients.

Methods: A multi-centre, non-interventional, observational study of excipient-kinetics in neonates. ‘Dried Blood Spot’ samples were collected opportunistically at the same time as routine samples and the observations modelled using a non-linear mixed effects approach.

Results: A total of 841 blood MPB and PPB concentration data were available for evaluation from 181 pre- and term-neonates. Quantifiable blood concentrations of MPB and PPB were observed in 99% and 49% of patients, and 55% and 25% of all concentrations were above limit of detection (10 ng/ml), respectively. Only MPB data was amenable to modelling. Oral bioavailability was influenced by type of formulation and disposition was best described by a two compartment model with clearance (CL) influenced by post natal age (PNA); CL_{PNA<21 days} 0.57 versus CL_PNA>21days 0.88 L/h.

Conclusions: Daily repeated administration of parabens containing medicines can result in prolonged systemic exposure to the parent compound in neonates. Animal toxicology studies of PPB that specifically address the neonatal period are required before a permitted daily exposure for this age group can be established.

Diagnostic accuracy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification as a near-patient test for meningococcal disease in children: An observational cohort study

Background: Diagnosis of meningococcal disease relies on recognition of clinical signs and symptoms that are notoriously non-specific, variable, and often absent in the early stages of the disease. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) has previously been shown to be fast and effective for the molecular detection of meningococcal DNA in clinical specimens. We aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of meningococcal LAMP as a near-patient test in the emergency department.

Methods: For this observational cohort study of diagnostic accuracy, children aged 0-13 years presenting to the emergency department of the Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children (Belfast, UK) with suspected meningococcal disease were eligible for inclusion. Patients underwent a standard meningococcal pack of investigations testing for meningococcal disease. Respiratory (nasopharyngeal swab) and blood specimens were collected from patients and tested with near-patient meningococcal LAMP and the results were compared with those obtained by reference laboratory tests (culture and PCR of blood and cerebrospinal fluid).

Findings: Between Nov 1, 2009, and Jan 31, 2012, 161 eligible children presenting at the hospital underwent the meningococcal pack of investigations and were tested for meningococcal disease, of whom 148 consented and were enrolled in the study. Combined testing of respiratory and blood specimens with use of LAMP was accurate (sensitivity 89% [95% CI 72-96], specificity 100% [97-100], positive predictive value 100% [85-100]; negative predictive value 98% [93-99]) and diagnostically useful (positive likelihood ratio 213 [95% CI 13-infinity] and negative likelihood ratio 0·11 [0·04-0·32]). The median time required for near-patient testing from sample to result was 1 h 26 min (IQR 1 h 20 min-1 h 32 min).

Interpretation: Meningococcal LAMP is straightforward enough for use in any hospital with basic laboratory facilities, and near-patient testing with this method is both feasible and effective. By contrast with existing UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guidelines, we showed that molecular testing of non-invasive respiratory specimens from children is diagnostically accurate and clinically useful.

Observational Constraints on the Progenitors of Core-Collapse Supernovae: The Case for Missing High-Mass Stars

Over the last 15 years, the supernova community has endeavoured to directly identify progenitor stars for core-collapse supernovae discovered in nearby galaxies. These precursors are often visible as resolved stars in high-resolution images from space-and ground-based telescopes. The discovery rate of progenitor stars is limited by the local supernova rate and the availability and depth of archive images of galaxies, with 18 detections of precursor objects and 27 upper limits. This review compiles these results (from 1999 to 2013) in a distance-limited sample and discusses the implications of the findings. The vast majority of the detections of progenitor stars are of type II-P, II-L, or IIb with one type Ib progenitor system detected and many more upper limits for progenitors of Ibc supernovae (14 in all). The data for these 45 supernovae progenitors illustrate a remarkable deficit of high-luminosity stars above an apparent limit of log L/L-circle dot similar or equal to 5.1 dex. For a typical Salpeter initial mass function, one would expect to have found 13 high-luminosity and high-mass progenitors by now. There is, possibly, only one object in this time-and volume-limited sample that is unambiguously high-mass (the progenitor of SN2009ip) although the nature of that supernovae is still debated. The possible biases due to the influence of circumstellar dust, the luminosity analysis, and sample selection methods are reviewed. It does not appear likely that these can explain the missing high-mass progenitor stars. This review concludes that the community's work to date shows that the observed populations of supernovae in the local Universe are not, on the whole, produced by high-mass (M greater than or similar to 18 M-circle dot) stars. Theoretical explosions of model stars also predict that black hole formation and failed supernovae tend to occur above an initial mass of M similar or equal to 18 M-circle dot. The models also suggest there is no simple single mass division for neutron star or black-hole formation and that there are islands of explodability for stars in the 8-120 M-circle dot range. The observational constraints are quite consistent with the bulk of stars above M similar or equal to 18 M-circle dot collapsing to form black holes with no visible supernovae.

Core Outcomes in Ventilation Trials (COVenT): protocol for a core outcome set using a Delphi survey with a nested randomised trial and observational cohort study

Background
Among clinical trials of interventions that aim to modify time spent on mechanical ventilation for critically ill patients there is considerable inconsistency in chosen outcomes and how they are measured. The Core Outcomes in Ventilation Trials (COVenT) study aims to develop a set of core outcomes for use in future ventilation trials in mechanically ventilated adults and children.

Methods/design
We will use a mixed methods approach that incorporates a randomised trial nested within a Delphi study and a consensus meeting. Additionally, we will conduct an observational cohort study to evaluate uptake of the core outcome set in published studies at 5 and 10 years following core outcome set publication. The three-round online Delphi study will use a list of outcomes that have been reported previously in a review of ventilation trials. The Delphi panel will include a range of stakeholder groups including patient support groups. The panel will be randomised to one of three feedback methods to assess the impact of the feedback mechanism on subsequent ranking of outcomes. A final consensus meeting will be held with stakeholder representatives to review outcomes.

Discussion
The COVenT study aims to develop a core outcome set for ventilation trials in critical care, explore the best Delphi feedback mechanism for achieving consensus and determine if participation increases use of the core outcome set in the long term.

Potentially harmful excipients in neonatal medicines: A pan-European observational study

Objectives We aimed to describe administration of eight potentially harmful excipients of interest (EOI)-parabens, polysorbate 80, propylene glycol, benzoates, saccharin sodium, sorbitol, ethanol and benzalkonium chloride-to hospitalised neonates in Europe and to identify risk factors for exposure. Methods All medicines administered to neonates during 1 day with individual prescription and demographic data were registered in a web-based point prevalence study. Excipients were identified from the Summaries of Product Characteristics. Determinants of EOI administration (geographical region, gestational age (GA), active pharmaceutical ingredient, unit level and hospital teaching status) were identified using multivariable logistical regression analysis. Results Overall 89 neonatal units from 21 countries participated. Altogether 2095 prescriptions for 530 products administered to 726 neonates were recorded. EOI were found in 638 (31%) prescriptions and were administered to 456 (63%) neonates through a relatively small number of products (n=142; 27%). Parabens, found in 71 (13%) products administered to 313 (43%) neonates, were used most frequently. EOI administration varied by geographical region, GA and route of administration. Geographical region remained a significant determinant of the use of parabens, polysorbate 80, propylene glycol and saccharin sodium after adjustment for the potential covariates including anatomical therapeutic chemical class of the active ingredient. Conclusions European neonates receive a number of potentially harmful pharmaceutical excipients. Regional differences in EOI administration suggest that EOI-free products are available and provide the potential for substitution to avoid side effects of some excipients.