Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Northern Ireland Policing Board Confidence in Policing Research: Key Drivers of Confidence

In January 2014, the Northern Ireland Policing Board (NIPB) commissioned the University of Ulster to conduct research into public confidence in policing to help inform the work of the Board and its oversight of police service delivery. More specifically, the research team were tasked with exploring ‘the key drivers of confidence in Northern Ireland’. To date, the subject of ‘confidence in policing’ within a Northern Ireland context has been relatively under researched, both in academic and policy terms. Thus, the present research is the first empirical research to be produced in the country to empirically assess confidence in policing from a cross section of society – including the key dynamics and drivers that underpin police confidence at a community level.

The report begins with a comprehensive review of academic literature, policy documents and contemporary events related to confidence in policing. The research then provides an overview of the methodology used to undertake the research, with the remainder of the report comprised of the findings from the survey. The report concludes with an overview of the central findings along with a series of recommendations.

Teenage motherhood: where you live is also important. A prospective cohort study of 14,000 women

The United Kingdom has among the highest rates of teenage motherhood (TM) in Western Europe. The relationship to individual social and material disadvantage is well established but the influence of area of residence is unclear. We tested for additional TM risks in deprived areas or in cities. The Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study was used to identify 14,055 nulliparous females (15-18). TM risk was measured using multilevel logistic regression, adjusting for health status, religion, family structure, socio-economic status, rurality and employment-based area deprivation. Most variation in TM was driven by individual, household and socioeconomic factors with the greatest proportion of mothers in low value or social rented accommodation. Living in an area with fewer employment opportunities was associated with elevated TM risk (most vs. least deprived, ORadj = 1.98 [1.49, 2.63]), as was urban dwelling (urban vs. intermediate, ORadj = 1.42 [1.13, 1.78]). We conclude that area of residence is a significant independent risk factor for TM. Interventions should be targeted towards the most deprived and urban areas and to those in the lowest value housing.