158 resultados para Summed probability functions


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Climate change, whether gradual or sudden, has frequently been invoked as a causal factor to explain many aspects of cultural change during the prehistoric and early historic periods. Critiquing such theories has often proven difficult, not least because of the imprecise dating of many aspects of the palaeoclimate or archaeological records and the difficulties of merging the two strands of research. Here we consider one example of the archaeological record – peatland site construction in Ireland – which has previously been interpreted in terms of social response to climate change and examine whether close scrutiny of the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental records uphold the climatically deterministic hypotheses. We evaluate evidence for phasing in the temporal distribution of trackways and related sites in Irish peatlands, of which more than 3,500 examples have been recorded, through the examination of ~350 dendrochronological and 14C dates from these structures. The role of climate change in influencing when such sites were constructed is assessed by comparing visually and statistically the frequency of sites over the last 4,500 years with well-dated, multi-proxy climate reconstructions from Irish peatlands. We demonstrate that national patterns of “peatland activity” exist that indicate that the construction of sites in bogs was neither a constant nor random phenomenon. Phases of activity (i.e. periods in which the number of structures increased), as well as the ‘lulls’ that separate them, show no consistent correlation with periods of wetter or drier conditions on the bogs, suggesting that the impetus for the start or cessation of such activity was not climatically-determined. We propose that trigger(s) for peatland site construction in Ireland must instead also be sought within the wider, contemporary social background. Perhaps not surprisingly, a comparison with archaeological and palynological evidence shows that peatland activity tends to occur at times of more expansive settlement and land-use, suggesting that the bogs were used when the landscape was being more widely occupied. Interestingly, the lulls in peatland site construction coincide with transitional points between nominal archaeological phases, typically defined on the basis of their material culture, implying that there may indeed have been a cultural discontinuity at these times. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Electron energy probability functions measured with a passively compensated Langmuir probe in asymmetric capacitively coupled hydrogen and deuterium plasmas exhibit structure. The otherwise relatively continuous distribution appears to have an abrupt peak in electron density near 5 eV. This structure occurs at a higher energy in deuterium than hydrogen and there is a correlation between floating potential and the voltage at which the structure is observed in the second derivative of the I(V) characteristic. While the cause of the structure has yet to be clarified, spectroscopic observations and computer-based hydrogen models indicate that the high energy tail of the distribution is strongly modulated during the radio frequency cycle. The effect of this modulation on plasma properties and probe measurements has yet to be explored. (C) 1999 American Institute of Physics. [S0003-6951(99)00819-0].

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Two electrical techniques that are frequently used to characterize radio frequency plasmas are described: current-voltage probes for plasma power input and compensated Langmuir probes for electron energy probability functions and other parameters. The following examples of the use of these techniques, sometimes in conjunction with other diagnostic methods, are presented: plasma source standardization, plasma system comparison, power efficiency, plasma modelling and complex processing plasma mechanisms.

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Peatlands are a key component of the global carbon cycle. Chronologies of peatland initiation are typically based on compiled basal peat radiocarbon (14C) dates and frequency histograms of binned calibrated age ranges. However, such compilations are problematic because poor quality 14C dates are commonly included and because frequency histograms of binned age ranges introduce chronological artefacts that bias the record of peatland initiation. Using a published compilation of 274 basal 14C dates from Alaska as a case study, we show that nearly half the 14C dates are inappropriate for reconstructing peatland initiation, and that the temporal structure of peatland initiation is sensitive to sampling biases and treatment of calibrated14C dates. We present revised chronologies of peatland initiation for Alaska and the circumpolar Arctic based on summed probability distributions of calibrated 14C dates. These revised chronologies reveal that northern peatland initiation lagged abrupt increases in atmospheric CH4 concentration at the start of the Bølling–Allerød interstadial (Termination 1A) and the end of the Younger Dryas chronozone (Termination 1B), suggesting that northern peatlands were not the primary drivers of the rapid increases in atmospheric CH4. Our results demonstrate that subtle methodological changes in the synthesis of basal 14C ages lead to substantially different interpretations of temporal trends in peatland initiation, with direct implications for the role of peatlands in the global carbon cycle.

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This paper synthesizes and discusses the spatial and temporal patterns of archaeological sites in Ireland, spanning the Neolithic period and the Bronze Age transition (4300–1900 cal BC), in order to explore the timing and implications of the main changes that occurred in the archaeological record of that period. Large amounts of new data are sourced from unpublished developer-led excavations and combined with national archives, published excavations and online databases. Bayesian radiocarbon models and context- and sample-sensitive summed radiocarbon probabilities are used to examine the dataset. The study captures the scale and timing of the initial expansion of Early Neolithic settlement and the ensuing attenuation of all such activity—an apparent boom-and-bust cycle. The Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic periods are characterised by a resurgence and diversification of activity. Contextualisation and spatial analysis of radiocarbon data reveals finer-scale patterning than is usually possible with summed-probability approaches: the boom-and-bust models of prehistoric populations may, in fact, be a misinterpretation of more subtle demographic changes occurring at the same time as cultural change and attendant differences in the archaeological record.

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The greatest relaxation time for an assembly of three- dimensional rigid rotators in an axially symmetric bistable potential is obtained exactly in terms of continued fractions as a sum of the zero frequency decay functions (averages of the Legendre polynomials) of the system. This is accomplished by studying the entire time evolution of the Green function (transition probability) by expanding the time dependent distribution as a Fourier series and proceeding to the zero frequency limit of the Laplace transform of that distribution. The procedure is entirely analogous to the calculation of the characteristic time of the probability evolution (the integral of the configuration space probability density function with respect to the position co-ordinate) for a particle undergoing translational diffusion in a potential; a concept originally used by Malakhov and Pankratov (Physica A 229 (1996) 109). This procedure allowed them to obtain exact solutions of the Kramers one-dimensional translational escape rate problem for piecewise parabolic potentials. The solution was accomplished by posing the problem in terms of the appropriate Sturm-Liouville equation which could be solved in terms of the parabolic cylinder functions. The method (as applied to rotational problems and posed in terms of recurrence relations for the decay functions, i.e., the Brinkman approach c.f. Blomberg, Physica A 86 (1977) 49, as opposed to the Sturm-Liouville one) demonstrates clearly that the greatest relaxation time unlike the integral relaxation time which is governed by a single decay function (albeit coupled to all the others in non-linear fashion via the underlying recurrence relation) is governed by a sum of decay functions. The method is easily generalized to multidimensional state spaces by matrix continued fraction methods allowing one to treat non-axially symmetric potentials, where the distribution function is governed by two state variables. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Incoherent Thomson scattering (ITS) provides a nonintrusive diagnostic for the determination of one-dimensional (1D) electron velocity distribution in plasmas. When the ITS spectrum is Gaussian its interpretation as a three-dimensional (3D) Maxwellian velocity distribution is straightforward. For more complex ITS line shapes derivation of the corresponding 3D velocity distribution and electron energy probability distribution function is more difficult. This article reviews current techniques and proposes an approach to making the transformation between a 1D velocity distribution and the corresponding 3D energy distribution. Previous approaches have either transformed the ITS spectra directly from a 1D distribution to a 3D or fitted two Gaussians assuming a Maxwellian or bi-Maxwellian distribution. Here, the measured ITS spectrum transformed into a 1D velocity distribution and the probability of finding a particle with speed within 0 and given value v is calculated. The differentiation of this probability function is shown to be the normalized electron velocity distribution function. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

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It is shown that, when expressing arguments in terms of their logarithms, the Laplace transform of a function is related to the antiderivative of this function by a simple convolution. This allows efficient numerical computations of moment generating functions of positive random variables and their inversion. The application of the method is straightforward, apart from the necessity to implement it using high-precision arithmetics. In numerical examples the approach is demonstrated to be particularly useful for distributions with heavy tails, Such as lognormal, Weibull, or Pareto distributions, which are otherwise difficult to handle. The computational efficiency compared to other methods is demonstrated for an M/G/1 queueing problem.

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Kuznetsov independence of variables X and Y means that, for any pair of bounded functions f(X) and g(Y), E[f(X)g(Y)]=E[f(X)] *times* E[g(Y)], where E[.] denotes interval-valued expectation and *times* denotes interval multiplication. We present properties of Kuznetsov independence for several variables, and connect it with other concepts of independence in the literature; in particular we show that strong extensions are always included in sets of probability distributions whose lower and upper expectations satisfy Kuznetsov independence. We introduce an algorithm that computes lower expectations subject to judgments of Kuznetsov independence by mixing column generation techniques with nonlinear programming. Finally, we define a concept of conditional Kuznetsov independence, and study its graphoid properties.

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Using an experimentally based, computer-presented task, this study assessed cognitive inhibition and interference in individuals from the dissociative identity disorder (DID; n=12), generalized anxiety disorder (GAD; n=12) and non-clinical (n=12) populations. Participants were assessed in a neutral and emotionally negative (anxiety provoking) context, manipulated by experimental instructions and word stimuli. The DID sample displayed effective cognitive inhibition in the neutral but not the anxious context. The GAD sample displayed the opposite findings. However, the interaction between group and context failed to reach significance. There was no indication of an attentional bias to non-schema specific negative words in any sample. Results are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of weakened cognitive inhibition during anxious arousal in dissociative individuals.