Path-Dependency, Stocks, Switching Points, Flows: Reflections on Long-term Global Change and Local Opportunities

This paper examines the possibilities for peripheral localities to achieve upward mobility in the world-system by “hooking on” to larger processes of world-system accumulation. In particular, is it possible for economies that are dependent on foreign investment to receive a flow of investments that is high enough to overcome the negative impacts of a high stock of foreign investment, thus enabling them to cross a threshold and achieve upward mobility in the world-system? An analysis of therecent experience of the southern Irish “Celtic Tiger” economy during 1990-2000 indicates that such an upward movement is possible on the basis of massive foreign investment inflows. On closer examination, however, the Irish-type model appears to be highly deficient, because a high proportion of growth is illusionary and also on grounds of social desirability and lack of generalizability.

Commercial oyster stocks as a potential source of larvae in the regeneration of Ostrea edulis in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland.

Ostrea edulis was extremely rare in the wild in Strangford Lough from the early 1900s until renewed spatfall was observed at a number of sites in the 1990s. A monitoring programme was undertaken to investigate the presence and distribution of planktonic oyster larvae at nine sites around the lough between June and September in 1997 and 1998 as a precursor to studies of spatfall patterns. Larval densities at sites in the northern basin of the lough were significantly higher than those in the southern basin where larvae were lacking or in low numbers. Densities and sizes of oyster larvae showed significant temporal variation suggesting pulsed larval release. Larval densities also showed significant spatial variation with higher densities at sites closer to commercial stocks pointing to these as the main source of oyster larvae. This hypothesis was supported during a larval flux study over a complete tidal cycle which indicated a 90% net tidal movement of O. edulis larvae from the entrance of the bay where commercial stocks were held to the main body of the lough. Thus the maintenance of dense commercial stocks of flat oysters may provide the key to the redevelopment of native oyster beds in Strangford Lough and elsewhere by providing an initial broodstock nucleus from which larvae can be exported.

Soil Carbon stocks and schanges in the Republic of Ireland

The soil carbon (C) stock of the Republic of Ireland is estimated to have been 2048 Mt in 1990 and 2021 Mt in 2000. Peat holds around 53% of the soil C stock, but on 17% of the land area. The C density of soils (t C ha-1) is mapped at 2 km*2 km resolution. The greatest soil C densities occur where deep raised bogs are the dominant soil; in these grid squares C density can reach 3000 t C ha-1. Most of the loss of soil C between 1990 and 2000-up to 23 Mt C (1% of 1990 soil C stock)-was through industrial peat extraction. The average annual change in soil C stocks from 1990 to 2000 due to land use change was estimated at around 0.02% of the 1990 stock. Considering uncertainties in the data used to calculate soil C stocks and changes, the small average annual 'loss' could be regarded as 'no change'.

Do Low-Priced Stocks Drive Long-Term Contrarian Performance on the London Stock Exchange?

We investigate whether low-priced stocks drive long-term contrarian performance on the U.K. market. We find that contrarian performance at low, middle, and high price levels is positive. On the Fama-French risk adjusted basis, we find both low-priced and middle-priced losers have significantly positive returns. When we adjust returns by market and liquidity risk, only middle-priced losers maintain their positive returns. Our results reveal that low-priced stocks are not fully responsible for contrarian performance. Our empirical evidence is generally consistent with the overreaction hypothesis and behavioral models of value investing.

Why and how FDI stocks are a biased measure of MNE affiliate activity

Many international business (IB) studies have used foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks to measure the aggregate value-adding activity of multinational enterprises (MNE) affiliates in host countries. We argue that FDI stocks are a biased measure of that activity, because the degree to which they overestimate or underestimate affiliate activity varies systematically with host-country characteristics. First, most FDI into countries that serve as tax havens generate no actual productive activity; thus FDI stocks in such countries overestimate affiliate activity. Second, FDI stocks do not include locally raised external funds, funds widely used in countries with well-developed financial markets or volatile exchange rates, resulting in an underestimation of affiliate activity in such countries. Finally, the extent to which FDI translates into affiliate activity increases with affiliate labor productivity, so in countries where labor is more productive, FDI stocks also result in an underestimation of affiliate activity. We test these hypotheses by first regressing affiliate value-added and affiliate sales on FDI stocks to calculate a country-specific mismatch, and then by regressing this mismatch on a host country's tax haven status, level of financial market development, exchange rate volatility, and affiliate labor productivity. All hypotheses are supported, implying that FDI stocks are a biased measure of MNE affiliate activity, and hence that the results of FDI-data-based studies of such activity need to be reconsidered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mutual Funds and Mispriced Stocks

We find a strong negative predictive relation between the propensity of active mutual funds to hold overpriced stocks and their subsequent performance. High-propensity funds, or overpriced funds, display poor stock picking skills as they further purchase overpriced stocks during episodes of fund inflows. Interestingly, overpriced funds attract considerable capital inflows during high sentiment episodes, after controlling for the effects of past fund performance. The overall evidence is consistent with the notion that overpriced funds, unable to improve their stock picking skills through time, target optimistic investors by engaging in marketing activities and catering to preferences for skewed returns.

Momentum Trading in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Energy Stocks

This paper investigates whether the momentum effect exists in the NYSE energy sector. Momentum is defined as the strategy that buys (sells) these stocks that are best (worst) performers, over a pre-specified past period of time (the 'look-back' period), by constructing equally weighted portfolios. Different momentum strategies are obtained by changing the number of stocks included in these portfolios, as well as the look-back period. Next, their performance is compared against two benchmarks: the equally weighted portfolio consisting of most stocks in the NYSE energy index and the market portfolio, and the S&P500 index. The results indicate that the momentum effect is strongly present in the energy sector, and leads to highly profitable portfolios, improving the risk-reward measures and easily outperforming both benchmarks.

Knowledge stocks, knowledge flows and innovation: Evidence from matched patents and innovation panel data

Successful innovation depends on knowledge – technological, strategic and market related. In this paper we explore the role and interaction of firms’ existing knowledge stocks and current knowledge flows in shaping innovation success. The paper contributes to our understanding of the determinants of firms’ innovation outputs and provides new information on the relationship between knowledge stocks, as measured by patents, and innovation output indicators. Our analysis uses innovation panel data relating to plants’ internal knowledge creation, external knowledge search and innovation outputs. Firm-level patent data is matched with this plant-level innovation panel data to provide a measure of firms’ knowledge stock. Two substantive conclusions follow. First, existing knowledge stocks have weak negative rather than positive impacts on firms’ innovation outputs, reflecting potential core-rigidities or negative path dependencies rather than the accumulation of competitive advantages. Second, knowledge flows derived from internal investment and external search dominate the effect of existing knowledge stocks on innovation performance. Both results emphasize the importance of firms’ knowledge search strategies. Our results also re-emphasize the potential issues which arise when using patents as a measure of innovation.

Can traditional harvesting methods for cockles be accommodated in a Special Area of Conservation?

The European Natura 2000 project attempts to balance conservation and exploitation by permitting activities that do not affect the conservation status of designated sites. Given the scale of Natura 2000, guidelines are needed to facilitate the drafting of simple site management plans. This need is particularly acute for traditional harvesting methods for which there is usually strong local opposition to the imposition of controls. These issues were examined in Strangford Lough, a special area of conservation where cockles have traditionally been harvested by hand-raking. Raking was found not to affect the ability of cockles to rebury. There were significant reductions in Zostera biomass when raking was carried out within eelgrass beds (a 90% reduction in biomass available to winter migrant birds from summer raking). Traditional harvesting methods could therefore be accepted in Strangford as long as Zostera beds are avoided. A relatively low intensity of harvesting activity in Strangford Lough probably reflects low cockle densities (average 91.8 m(-2)), with the most economically valuable individuals at some distance from points of access to the shore. An economically feasible management plan could sanction traditional harvesting and result in the implementation of more resource-intensive management only if increases in cockle stocks and market prices stimulate large increases in harvesting activity.

Do benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts?

This paper investigates if benchmark African equity indices exhibit the stylized facts reported for financial time-series returns. The returns distributions of the Africa All-Share, Large, Medium and Small Company Indices were found to be leptokurtotic, had fat-tails, over time experienced volatility clustering and exhibited long memory in volatility. Both the All-Share and Large Company Indices were found to exhibit leverage effects. In contrast, positive shocks had a greater impact on future volatility for the Small Company Index which implies a reverse leverage effect. This finding could reflect a bull/bubble market for small capitalisation stocks in Africa.