Modelling recovery of Celtic Sea demersal fish community size-structure

The Large Fish Indicator (LFI) is a size-based indicator of fish community state. The indicator describes the proportion by biomass of a fish community represented by fish larger than some size threshold. From an observed peak value of 0.49 in 1990, the Celtic Sea LFI declined until about 2000 and then fluctuated around 0.10 throughout the 2000s. This decline in the LFI reflected a period of diminishing ‘large’ fish biomass, probably related to high levels of size selective fishing. During the study period, fishing mortality was maintained at consistently high values. Average biomass of ‘small’ fish fluctuated across the whole time series, showing a weak positive trend in recent years. Inter-annual variation in the LFI was increasingly driven by fluctuation in small fish biomass as large fish biomass declined. Simulations using a size-based ecosystem model suggested that recovery in Celtic Sea fish community size-structure (LFI) could demand at least 20% reductions in fishing pressure and occur on decadal timescales.

Why the size structure of marine communities can require decades to recover from fishing

A dynamic food-web model of more than 1000 species was used to quantify the recovery trajectory of marine community size-structure under different hypothetical fishing regimes, using the Northeast Atlantic as an example. Size-structure was summarised by four indicators: the Large Fish Indicator (LFI), the Large Species Indicator (LSI), the biomass-weighted mean maximum length of fish species (EMBED Equation.3) and the biomass-weighted mean maturation length of fish species (EMBED Equation.3). Time-series of these indicators recorded recovery following release from fishing with various size-selectivities, intensities and durations. In model simulations, fishing-induced trophic cascades were observed to distort fish community size-structure, but these did not have a large influence on recovery level or duration as measured by the four indicators. However, simulations showed that local extinctions of large fish species increased in number with both fishing intensity and duration, and could strongly limit the recovery level. Recovery of fish community size-structure to near equilibrium frequently took multiple decades in simulations; these long transient periods suggest that management interventions for size-structure recovery may require much longer than previously thought. Our results demonstrate the need for community-level modelling to set realistic targets for management of community size-structure.

A complete analytic theory for structure and dynamics of populations and communities spanning wide ranges in body size

The prediction and management of ecosystem responses to global environmental change would profit from a clearer understanding of the mechanisms determining the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. The analytic theory presented here develops a causally closed picture for the mechanisms controlling community and population size structure, in particular community size spectra, and their dynamic responses to perturbations, with emphasis on marine ecosystems. Important implications are summarised in non-technical form. These include the identification of three different responses of community size spectra to size-specific pressures (of which one is the classical trophic cascade), an explanation for the observed slow recovery of fish communities from exploitation, and clarification of the mechanism controlling predation mortality rates. The theory builds on a community model that describes trophic interactions among size-structured populations and explicitly represents the full life cycles of species. An approximate time-dependent analytic solution of the model is obtained by coarse graining over maturation body sizes to obtain a simple description of the model steady state, linearising near the steady state, and then eliminating intraspecific size structure by means of the quasi-neutral approximation. The result is a convolution equation for trophic interactions among species of different maturation body sizes, which is solved analytically using a novel technique based on a multiscale expansion.

Size-selective fishing drives species composition in the Celtic Sea

Fishing alters community size structure by selectively removing larger individual fish and by changing the relative abundance of different-sized species. To assess the relative importance of individual-and species-level effects, two indices of fish community structure were compared, the relative abundance of large fish individuals (large fish indicator, LFI) and the relative abundance of large fish species (large species indicator, LSI). The two indices were strongly correlated for empirical data from the Celtic Sea and for data from simulated model communities, suggesting that much of the variability in the LFI is caused by shifts in the relative abundance of species (LSI). This correlation is explained by the observation that most of the biomass of a given species is spread over few length classes, a range spanning the factor 2 of individual length, such that most species contributed predominantly to either the small or the large component of the LFI. The results suggest that the effects of size-selective fishing in the Celtic Sea are mediated mainly through changes in community composition.

Biodiversity among mussels: separating the influence of sizes of mussels from the ages of patches

The role of habitat structure in controlling the composition of assemblages has often been studied, but is rarely manipulated so that it is distinguishable from other factors. Differences in habitat structure as determined by differences in mussel size structure may affect the diversity of assemblages associated with mussel beds. Previous studies examining the effect of the size of individual mussels in a patch on the diversity of associated macro-faunal assemblages confounded the age of the patch with the size of the mussels. We manipulated the age of mussel patches and the size of the mussels within them to test experimentally whether the size of mussels influenced the structure of associated assemblages. At one of the two locations considered, the structure of macro-faunal assemblages in patches of larger mussels differed significantly from those in patches of the same age composed of smaller mussels. At this location, the size of mussels did not affect species richness but the abundance and proportion of organisms present differed depending on the size of the mussels. Here patches of larger mussels contained greater numbers of Nematodes and Oligochaetes and a lower abundance of taxa, such as faera forsmani and Lepidonotus clava. We also found that invertebrate assemblages in general differed between the two locations. The effect of the size structure of mussels, however, varied spatially demonstrating that the effect of habitat structure on the diversity of associated assemblages is context dependent.

Emerging asymmetric interactions between forage and predator fisheries impose management trade-offs

A size and trait-based marine community model was used to investigate interactions, with potential implications for yields, when a fishery targeting forage fish species (whose main adult diet is zooplankton) co-occurs with a fishery targeting larger-sized predator species. Predicted effects on the size structure of the fish community, growth and recruitment of fishes, and yield from the fisheries were used to identify management trade-offs among the different fisheries. Results showed that moderate fishing on forage fishes imposed only small effects on predator fisheries, whereas predator fisheries could enhance yield from forage fisheries under some circumstances.

Stock-recruitment relations controlled by feeding interactions alone

Stock-recruitment (S-R) relationships are the centrepiece of fisheries management aimed at achieving maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Here we consider the possibility that the density dependence evident in S-R relations is controlled by feeding interactions alone. We simulate a food-web model with dynamic representations of intra- and interspecific size structure and a linear relation between food intake and hatchling production of adults. Population sizes of individual stocks are modified by imposing additional mortality. The predominant functional forms and the steepness of resulting S-R relationships agree well with observations. We conclude that recruitment is plausibly regulated by feeding interactions alone.

Predicting forest attributes In southeast Alaska using artificial neural networks

Artificial neural network (ANN) methods are used to predict forest characteristics. The data source is the Southeast Alaska (SEAK) Grid Inventory, a ground survey compiled by the USDA Forest Service at several thousand sites. The main objective of this article is to predict characteristics at unsurveyed locations between grid sites. A secondary objective is to evaluate the relative performance of different ANNs. Data from the grid sites are used to train six ANNs: multilayer perceptron, fuzzy ARTMAP, probabilistic, generalized regression, radial basis function, and learning vector quantization. A classification and regression tree method is used for comparison. Topographic variables are used to construct models: latitude and longitude coordinates, elevation, slope, and aspect. The models classify three forest characteristics: crown closure, species land cover, and tree size/structure. Models are constructed using n-fold cross-validation. Predictive accuracy is calculated using a method that accounts for the influence of misclassification as well as measuring correct classifications. The probabilistic and generalized regression networks are found to be the most accurate. The predictions of the ANN models are compared with a classification of the Tongass national forest in southeast Alaska based on the interpretation of satellite imagery and are found to be of similar accuracy.

Phylogeny versus body size as determinants of food web structure

Food webs are the complex networks of trophic interactions that stoke the metabolic fires of life. To understand what structures these interactions in natural communities, ecologists have developed simple models to capture their main architectural features. However, apparently realistic food webs can be generated by models invoking either predator-prey body-size hierarchies or evolutionary constraints as structuring mechanisms. As a result, this approach has not conclusively revealed which factors are the most important. Here we cut to the heart of this debate by directly comparing the influence of phylogeny and body size on food web architecture. Using data from 13 food webs compiled by direct observation, we confirm the importance of both factors. Nevertheless, phylogeny dominates in most networks. Moreover, path analysis reveals that the size-independent direct effect of phylogeny on trophic structure typically outweighs the indirect effect that could be captured by considering body size alone. Furthermore, the phylogenetic signal is asymmetric: closely related species overlap in their set of consumers far more than in their set of resources. This is at odds with several food web models, which take only the view-point of consumers when assigning interactions. The echo of evolutionary history clearly resonates through current food webs, with implications for our theoretical models and conservation priorities.

Optimal basis set for electronic structure calculations in periodic systems

An efficient method for calculating the electronic structure of systems that need a very fine sampling of the Brillouin zone is presented. The method is based on the variational optimization of a single (i.e., common to all points in the Brillouin zone) basis set for the expansion of the electronic orbitals. Considerations from k.p-approximation theory help to understand the efficiency of the method. The accuracy and the convergence properties of the method as a function of the optimal basis set size are analyzed for a test calculation on a 16-atom Na supercell.

Coastline configuration as a determinant of structure in larval assemblages

The richness and turnover of coastal larval pools set upper limits for biodiversity in coastal systems. For particular local systems, such as embayments, the characteristics of the local larval pool are determined by the relative contributions of locally produced and external larvae. The balance between these sources partially reflects the extent of tidal exchange and is hence related to system size and flushing time. Larvae of benthic marine invertebrates were sampled from 8 bays along the Irish coast to investigate the effect of coastline configuration on the characteristics of the larval pool. Flushing time explained 34.5% of the variability in species richness from a series of daily samples. Many of the potentially relevant environmental variables are correlated, limiting the potential for individual variables to be examined in isolation. We therefore used a principal components analysis to describe the major patterns in environmental variability across bays. The second principal component separated bays along a gradient of increasing depth, salinity, tidal range and flushing time. Scores along this component were generally better predictors of the larval pool than single variables, explaining as much as 61.2% of the variation in species richness, diversity and similarity between dates. Deeper bays, with more saline water and longer flushing times, tended to have richer and more diverse larval pools, with a greater consistency in species composition between sample dates. No relationship was found between environmental variables and larval abundance. Our results suggest that flushing time, particularly when in combination with topographic variables, chlorophyll, tidal range and salinity, may be a useful predictor for the richness and turnover of local larval pools.

Effects of environment and an introduced invertebrate species on the structure of benthic macroinvertebrate species at the catchment level

Biotic interactions such as predation and competition can influence aquatic communities at small spatial scales, but they are expected to be overridden by environmental factors at large scales. The continuing threat to freshwater biodiversity of biological invasions indicates that biotic factors do, however, have important structuring roles. In Irish rivers, the native amphipod Gammarus duebeni celticus has become locally extinct, ostensibly through differential predation by the more aggressive and introduced G. pulex. This mechanism explains impacts of G. pulex at within-river spatial scales on native macroinvertebrate community diversity, including declines in ephemeropterans, plecopterans, dipterans and oligochaetes. To determine if these patterns are predictable at larger spatial scales, we assessed patterns in native macroinvertebrate communities across river sites of the Erne catchment in 1998 and 1999, in conjunction with the distribution of G. pulex and G. d. celticus. In both years, G. pulex dominated invaded sites, whereas G. d. celticus occurred at low abundance in uninvaded sites. In both years, invaded sites had lower diversity and fewer pollution sensitive invertebrate species than un-invaded sites. Community ordination in 1998 showed that invaded sites had higher conductivity, smaller substrate particle size and comprised a lower proportion of pollution sensitive taxa including Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera. In contrast, in 1999, conductivity was the only variable explaining site ordination along axis 1, but was unable to separate sites with respect to invasion status. A second explanatory axis separated sites with respect to invasion status, with invaded sites having fewer taxa, including lower abundance of ephemeropterans, dipterans and plecopterans. Laboratory experiments examined the potential role of differential predation between the two Gammarus species in explaining these taxon specific patterns in the field. Survival of the ephemeropterans, Ephemerella ignita and Ecdyonurus venosus and the isopod, Asellus aquaticus, was lower when interacting with G. pulex than with G. d. celticus. This study indicates that G. putex may alter invertebrate community structure at scales beyond those detected within individual rivers. However, effects may be influenced by gradients in physico-chemistry, which may be temporal or depend on catchment characteristics. Invasions by amphipods have increased globally, thus comprehensive assessments of their impacts and of other aquatic invaders, may only be apparent when studies are conducted at a range of spatio-temporal scales.