Models of open populations with space-limited recruitment: extension of theory and application to the barnacle Chthamalus montagui.

1. Barnacles are a good model organism for the study of open populations with space-limited recruitment. These models are applicable to other species with open supply of new individuals and resource limitation. The inclusion of space in models leads to reductions in recruitment with increasing density, and thus predictions of population size and stability are possible. 2. Despite the potential generality of a demographic theory for open space-limited populations, the models currently have a narrow empirical base. In this study, a model for an open population with space-limited recruitment was extended to include size-specific survival and promotions to any size class. The assumptions of this model were tested using data from a pan-European study of the barnacle Chthamalus montagui Southward. Two models were constructed: a 6-month model and a periodic annual model. Predicted equilibria and their stabilities were compared between shores. 3. Tests of model assumptions supported the extension of the theory to include promotions to any size class. Mortality was found to be size-specific and density independent. Studied populations were open, with recruitment proportional to free space. 4. The 6-month model showed a significant interaction between time and location for equilibrium free space. This may have been due to contrasts in the timing of structuring processes (i.e. creating and filling space) between Mediterranean and Atlantic systems. Integration of the 6-month models into a periodic annual model removed the differences in equilibrium-free space between locations. 5. Model predictions show a remarkable similarity between shores at a European scale. Populations were persistent and all solutions were stable. This reflects the apparent absence of density-dependent mortality and a high adult survivorship in C. montagui. As populations are intrinsically stable, observations of fluctuations in density are directly attributable to variations in the environmental forcing of recruitment or mortality

Acoustic, volumetric, compressibility and refractivity properties and reduction parameters for the ERAS and Flory models of some homologous series of amines from 298.15 to 328.15 K

The speeds of sound u, densities ? and refractive indices nD of homologous series of mono-, di-, and tri-alkylamines were measured in the temperature range from 298.15 to 328.15 K. Isentropic and isothermal compressibilities ?S and ?T, molar refraction Rm, Eykman’s constant Cm, Rao’s molar sound function R, thermal expansion coefficient a, thermal pressure coefficient ?, and reduction parameters P*, V*, and T* in frameworks of the ERAS model for associated amines and Flory model for tertiary amines have been calculated from the measured experimental data. Applicability of the Rao theory and the ERAS and Flory models have been examined and discussed for the alkyl amines.

Viscoelastic Material Models of Polypropylene for Thermoforming Applications

Polypropylene (PP), a semi-crystalline material, is typically solid phase thermoformed at temperatures associated with crystalline melting, generally in the 150° to 160°Celsius range. In this very narrow thermoforming window the mechanical properties of the material rapidly decline with increasing temperature and these large changes in properties make Polypropylene one of the more difficult materials to process by thermoforming. Measurement of the deformation behaviour of a material under processing conditions is particularly important for accurate numerical modelling of thermoforming processes. This paper presents the findings of a study into the physical behaviour of industrial thermoforming grades of Polypropylene. Practical tests were performed using custom built materials testing machines and thermoforming equipment at Queen′s University Belfast. Numerical simulations of these processes were constructed to replicate thermoforming conditions using industry standard Finite Element Analysis software, namely ABAQUS and custom built user material model subroutines. Several variant constitutive models were used to represent the behaviour of the Polypropylene materials during processing. This included a range of phenomenological, rheological and blended constitutive models. The paper discusses approaches to modelling industrial plug-assisted thermoforming operations using Finite Element Analysis techniques and the range of material models constructed and investigated. It directly compares practical results to numerical predictions. The paper culminates discussing the learning points from using Finite Element Methods to simulate the plug-assisted thermoforming of Polypropylene, which presents complex contact, thermal, friction and material modelling challenges. The paper makes recommendations as to the relative importance of these inputs in general terms with regard to correlating to experimentally gathered data. The paper also presents recommendations as to the approaches to be taken to secure simulation predictions of improved accuracy.

Direct, positive feedbacks produce instability in models of interrelationships among soil structure, plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Current conceptual models of reciprocal interactions linking soil structure, plants and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi emphasise positive feedbacks among the components of the system. However, dynamical systems with high dimensionality and several positive feedbacks (i.e. mutualism) are prone to instability. Further, organisms such as arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) are obligate biotrophs of plants and are considered major biological agents in soil aggregate stabilization. With these considerations in mind, we developed dynamical models of soil ecosystems that reflect the main features of current conceptual models and empirical data, especially positive feedbacks and linear interactions among plants, AMF and the component of soil structure dependent on aggregates. We found that systems become increasingly unstable the more positive effects with Type I functional response (i.e., the growth rate of a mutualist is modified by the density of its partner through linear proportionality) are added to the model, to the point that increasing the realism of models by adding linear effects produces the most unstable systems. The present theoretical analysis thus offers a framework for modelling and suggests new directions for experimental studies on the interrelationship between soil structure, plants and AMF. Non-linearity in functional responses, spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and indirect effects can be invoked on a theoretical basis and experimentally tested in laboratory and field experiments in order to account for and buffer the local instability of the simplest of current scenarios. This first model presented here may generate interest in more explicitly representing the role of biota in soil physical structure, a phenomenon that is typically viewed in a more process- and management-focused context. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Formal calibration methodology for CFD models of naturally ventilated indoor environments

Well planned natural ventilation strategies and systems in the built environments may provide healthy and comfortable indoor conditions, while contributing to a significant reduction in the energy consumed by buildings. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is particularly suited for modelling indoor conditions in naturally ventilated spaces, which are difficult to predict using other types of building simulation tools. Hence, accurate and reliable CFD models of naturally ventilated indoor spaces are necessary to support the effective design and operation of indoor environments in buildings. This paper presents a formal calibration methodology for the development of CFD models of naturally ventilated indoor environments. The methodology explains how to qualitatively and quantitatively verify and validate CFD models, including parametric analysis utilising the response surface technique to support a robust calibration process. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a naturally ventilated study zone in the library building at the National University of Ireland in Galway. The calibration process is supported by the on-site measurements performed in a normally operating building. The measurement of outdoor weather data provided boundary conditions for the CFD model, while a network of wireless sensors supplied air speeds and air temperatures inside the room for the model calibration. The concepts and techniques developed here will enhance the process of achieving reliable CFD models that represent indoor spaces and provide new and valuable information for estimating the effect of the boundary conditions on the CFD model results in indoor environments. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Models of Mortality - Analysing the Residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.

Sustained inhibition of deacetylases is required for the antitumor activity of the histone deactylase inhibitors panobinostat and vorinostat in models of colorectal cancer

Despite compelling preclinical data in colorectal cancer (CRC), the efficacy of HDACIs has been disappointing in the clinic. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of vorinostat and panobinostat in a dose- and exposure-dependent manner in order to better understand the dynamics of drug action and antitumor efficacy. In a standard 72 h drug exposure MTS assay, notable concentration-dependent antiproliferative effects were observed in the IC50 range of 1.2-2.8 μmol/L for vorinostat and 5.1-17.5 nmol/L for panobinostat. However, shorter clinically relevant exposures of 3 or 6 h failed to elicit any significant growth inhibition and in most cases a >24 h exposure to vorinostat or panobinostat was required to induce a sigmoidal dose-response. Similar results were observed in colony formation assays where ≥ 24 h of exposure was required to effectively reduce colony formation. Induction of acetyl-H3, acetyl-H4 and p21 by vorinostat were transient and rapidly reversed within 12 h of drug removal. In contrast, panobinostat-induced acetyl-H3, acetyl-H4, and p21 persisted for 48 h after an initial 3 h exposure. Treatment of HCT116 xenografts with panobinostat induced significant increases in acetyl-H3 and downregulation of thymidylate synthase after treatment. Although HDACIs exert both potent growth inhibition and cytotoxic effects when CRC cells were exposed to drug for ≥ 24 h, these cells demonstrate an inherent ability to survive HDACI concentrations and exposure times that exceed those clinically achievable. Continued efforts to develop novel HDACIs with improved pharmacokinetics/phamacodynamics, enhanced intratumoral delivery and class/isoform-specificity are needed to improve the therapeutic potential of HDACIs and HDACI-based combination regimens in solid tumors.

Predicting polarization signatures for double-detonation and delayed-detonation models of Type Ia supernovae

Calculations of synthetic spectropolarimetry are one means to test multidimensional explosion models for Type Ia supernovae. In a recent paper, we demonstrated that the violent merger of a 1.1 and 0.9 M⊙ white dwarf binary system is too asymmetric to explain the low polarization levels commonly observed in normal Type Ia supernovae. Here, we present polarization simulations for two alternative scenarios: the sub-Chandrasekhar mass double-detonation and the Chandrasekhar mass delayed-detonation model. Specifically, we study a 2D double-detonation model and a 3D delayed-detonation model, and calculate polarization spectra for multiple observer orientations in both cases. We find modest polarization levels (<1 per cent) for both explosion models. Polarization in the continuum peaks at ∼0.1–0.3 per cent and decreases after maximum light, in excellent agreement with spectropolarimetric data of normal Type Ia supernovae. Higher degrees of polarization are found across individual spectral lines. In particular, the synthetic Si II λ6355 profiles are polarized at levels that match remarkably well the values observed in normal Type Ia supernovae, while the low degrees of polarization predicted across the O I λ7774 region are consistent with the non-detection of this feature in current data. We conclude that our models can reproduce many of the characteristics of both flux and polarization spectra for well-studied Type Ia supernovae, such as SN 2001el and SN 2012fr. However, the two models considered here cannot account for the unusually high level of polarization observed in extreme cases such as SN 2004dt.

Fast and frugal models of clinical judgement in novice and expert physicians

Our objective was to study whether “compensatory” models provide better descriptions of clinical judgment than fast and frugal models, according to expertise and experience. Fifty practitioners appraised 60 vignettes describing a child with an exacerbation of asthma and rated their propensities to admit the child. Linear logistic (LL) models of their judgments were compared with a matching heuristic (MH) model that searched available cues in order of importance for a critical value indicating an admission decision. There was a small difference between the 2 models in the proportion of patients allocated correctly (admit or not-admit decisions), 91.2% and 87.8%, respectively. The proportion allocated correctly by the LL model was lower for consultants than juniors, whereas the MH model performed equally well for both. In this vignette study, neither model provided any better description of judgments made by consultants or by pediatricians compared to other grades and specialties.

Simple models of complex aggregation: Vesicle formation by soft repulsive spheres with dipolelike interactions

Structural and thermodynamic properties of spherical particles carrying classical spins are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The potential energy is the sum of short range, purely repulsive pair contributions, and spin-spin interactions. These last are of the dipole-dipole form, with however, a crucial change of sign. At low density and high temperature the system is a homogeneous fluid of weakly interacting particles and short range spin correlations. With decreasing temperature particles condense into an equilibrium population of free floating vesicles. The comparison with the electrostatic case, giving rise to predominantly one-dimensional aggregates under similar conditions, is discussed. In both cases condensation is a continuous transformation, provided the isotropic part of the interatomic potential is purely repulsive. At low temperature the model allows us to investigate thermal and mechanical properties of membranes. At intermediate temperatures it provides a simple model to investigate equilibrium polymerization in a system giving rise to predominantly two-dimensional aggregates.