Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.

Effects of n-3 long chain polyunsaturated fatty acids on depressed mood: Systematic review of published trials.

Background: Greater dietary intakes of n–3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (n–3 PUFAs) may be beneficial for depressed mood. Objective: This study aimed to systematically review all published randomized controlled trials investigating the effects of n–3 PUFAs on depressed mood. Design: Eight medical and health databases were searched over all years of records until June 2006 for trials that exposed participants to n–3 PUFAs or fish, measured depressed mood, were conducted on human participants, and included a comparison group. Results: Eighteen randomized controlled trials were identified; 12 were included in a meta-analysis. The pooled standardized difference in mean outcome (fixed-effects model) was 0.13 SDs (95% CI: 0.01, 0.25) in those receiving n–3 PUFAs compared with placebo, with strong evidence of heterogeneity (I2 = 79%, P <0.001). The presence of funnel plot asymmetry suggested that publication bias was the likely source of heterogeneity. Sensitivity analyses that excluded one large trial increased the effect size estimates but did not reduce heterogeneity. Metaregression provided some evidence that the effect was stronger in trials involving populations with major depression—the difference in the effect size estimates was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.05, 1.41; P = 0.04), but there was still considerable heterogeneity when trials that involved populations with major depression were pooled separately (I2 = 72%, P <0.001). Conclusions: Trial evidence that examines the effects of n–3 PUFAs on depressed mood is limited and is difficult to summarize and evaluate because of considerable heterogeneity. The evidence available provides little support for the use of n–3 PUFAs to improve depressed mood. Larger trials with adequate power to detect clinically important benefits are required.

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic analysis of 6-mercaptopurine in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT center dot The cytotoxic effects of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) were found to be due to drug-derived intracellular metabolites (mainly 6-thioguanine nucleotides and to some extent 6-methylmercaptopurine nucleotides) rather than the drug itself. center dot Current empirical dosing methods for oral 6-MP result in highly variable drug and metabolite concentrations and hence variability in treatment outcome. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS center dot The first population pharmacokinetic model has been developed for 6-MP active metabolites in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and the potential demographic and genetically controlled factors that could lead to interpatient pharmacokinetic variability among this population have been assessed. center dot The model shows a large reduction in interindividual variability of pharmacokinetic parameters when body surface area and thiopurine methyltransferase polymorphism are incorporated into the model as covariates. center dot The developed model offers a more rational dosing approach for 6-MP than the traditional empirical method (based on body surface area) through combining it with pharmacogenetically guided dosing based on thiopurine methyltransferase genotype. To investigate the population pharmacokinetics of 6-mercaptopurine (6-MP) active metabolites in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and examine the effects of various genetic polymorphisms on the disposition of these metabolites. Data were collected prospectively from 19 paediatric patients with ALL (n = 75 samples, 150 concentrations) who received 6-MP maintenance chemotherapy (titrated to a target dose of 75 mg m(-2) day(-1)). All patients were genotyped for polymorphisms in three enzymes involved in 6-MP metabolism. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with the nonlinear mixed effects modelling program (nonmem) to determine the population mean parameter estimate of clearance for the active metabolites. The developed model revealed considerable interindividual variability (IIV) in the clearance of 6-MP active metabolites [6-thioguanine nucleotides (6-TGNs) and 6-methylmercaptopurine nucleotides (6-mMPNs)]. Body surface area explained a significant part of 6-TGNs clearance IIV when incorporated in the model (IIV reduced from 69.9 to 29.3%). The most influential covariate examined, however, was thiopurine methyltransferase (TPMT) genotype, which resulted in the greatest reduction in the model's objective function (P

Automated mixed dimensional modelling from 2D and 3D CAD models

The motivation for this paper is to present procedures for automatically creating idealised finite element models from the 3D CAD solid geometry of a component. The procedures produce an accurate and efficient analysis model with little effort on the part of the user. The technique is applicable to thin walled components with local complex features and automatically creates analysis models where 3D elements representing the complex regions in the component are embedded in an efficient shell mesh representing the mid-faces of the thin sheet regions. As the resulting models contain elements of more than one dimension, they are referred to as mixed dimensional models. Although these models are computationally more expensive than some of the idealisation techniques currently employed in industry, they do allow the structural behaviour of the model to be analysed more accurately, which is essential if appropriate design decisions are to be made. Also, using these procedures, analysis models can be created automatically whereas the current idealisation techniques are mostly manual, have long preparation times, and are based on engineering judgement. In the paper the idealisation approach is first applied to 2D models that are used to approximate axisymmetric components for analysis. For these models 2D elements representing the complex regions are embedded in a 1D mesh representing the midline of the cross section of the thin sheet regions. Also discussed is the coupling, which is necessary to link the elements of different dimensionality together. Analysis results from a 3D mixed dimensional model created using the techniques in this paper are compared to those from a stiffened shell model and a 3D solid model to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the new approach. At the end of the paper a quantitative analysis of the reduction in computational cost due to shell meshing thin sheet regions demonstrates that the reduction in degrees of freedom is proportional to the square of the aspect ratio of the region, and for long slender solids, the reduction can be proportional to the aspect ratio of the region if appropriate meshing algorithms are used.

Review and meta-analysis of the short-term effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on food intake

Several short-term studies have investigated the effects of a vegetable oil emulsion on subsequent food intake, although findings have been inconsistent. This work aimed to review all studies, and investigate differences in study outcomes based on methodology. All known studies were identified. Data were abstracted from published studies (n = 7). Details of unpublished studies were gained from investigators/sponsors (n = 5), or were unavailable for reasons of confidentiality (n = 4). Available data were combined using meta-analyses. A combined appetite suppressant effect of the emulsion compared with control was found for test meal intake at approximately 4, 12 and 36 h post-treatment: smallest combined mean difference (random effects model) = 0.53 MJ (95% confidence interval 0.20, 0.86), P < 0.01. However, considerable heterogeneity (variability) between study results was also found (smallest I2 = 94%, P < 0.01), questioning the predictive validity of the above findings. Meta-regression suggested this heterogeneity to be related to differences in the processed nature of the product, treatment dose and in particular year of study (smallest B = 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.06, 1.03, P = 0.04), although again heterogeneity was found. The only consistent finding was a lack of effect on food intake 4 h post-preload in studies conducted after 2003. These results suggest a small but inconsistent appetite suppressant effect of the vegetable oil emulsion. However, due to the large heterogeneity, no definitive conclusions can be drawn.

Prophylactic ranitidine treatment in critically ill children - a population pharmacokinetic study

Aims: To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Methods: Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Results: A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (-12.618; P <0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1lh for total clearance and 285l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31h and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Conclusions: Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary.

Preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a low-risk obstetric population: a discrete choice experiment

Objective: Establish maternal preferences for a third-trimester ultrasound scan in a healthy, low-risk pregnant population.

Design: Cross-sectional study incorporating a discrete choice experiment.

Setting: A large, urban maternity hospital in Northern Ireland.

Participants: One hundred and forty-six women in their second trimester of pregnancy.

Methods: A discrete choice experiment was designed to elicit preferences for four attributes of a third-trimester ultrasound scan: health-care professional conducting the scan, detection rate for abnormal foetal growth, provision of non-medical information, cost. Additional data collected included age, marital status, socio-economic status, obstetric history, pregnancy-specific stress levels, perceived health and whether pregnancy was planned. Analysis was undertaken using a mixed logit model with interaction effects.

Main outcome measures: Women's preferences for, and trade-offs between, the attributes of a hypothetical scan and indirect willingness-to-pay estimates.

Results: Women had significant positive preference for higher rate of detection, lower cost and provision of non-medical information, with no significant value placed on scan operator. Interaction effects revealed subgroups that valued the scan most: women experiencing their first pregnancy, women reporting higher levels of stress, an adverse obstetric history and older women.

Conclusions: Women were able to trade on aspects of care and place relative importance on clinical, non-clinical outcomes and processes of service delivery, thus highlighting the potential of using health utilities in the development of services from a clinical, economic and social perspective. Specifically, maternal preferences exhibited provide valuable information for designing a randomized trial of effectiveness and insight for clinical and policy decision makers to inform woman-centred care.

Potassium canrenoate treatment in paediatric patients: a population pharmacokinetic study using novel dried blood spot sampling

Objective: To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of canrenone following administration of potassium canrenoate (K-canrenoate) in paediatric patients.

Methods: Data were collected prospectively from 37 paediatric patients (median weight 2.9?kg, age range 2 days–0.85 years) who received intravenous K-canrenoate for management of retained fluids, for example in heart failure and chronic lung disease. Dried blood spot (DBS) samples (n?=?213) from these were analysed for canrenone content and the data subjected to pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Another group of patients (n?=?16) who had 71 matching plasma and DBS samples was analysed separately to compare canrenone pharmacokinetic parameters obtained using the two different matrices.

Results: A one-compartment model best described the DBS data. Significant covariates were weight, postmenstrual age (PMA) and gestational age. The final population models for canrenone clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) in DBS were CL/F (l/h)?=?12.86?×? (WT/70.0)0.75?×?e [0.066?×? (PMA?-?40]) and V/F (l)?=?603.30?×? (WT/70)?×?(GA/40)1.89 where weight is in kilograms. The corresponding values of CL/F and V/F in a patient with a median weight of 2.9?kg are 1.11?l/h and 20.48?l, respectively. Estimated half-life of canrenone based on DBS concentrations was similar to that based on matched plasma concentrations (19.99 and 19.37?h, respectively, in 70?kg patient).

Conclusion: The range of estimated CL/F in DBS for the study population was 0.12–9.62?l/h; hence, bodyweight-based dosage adjustment of K-canrenoate appears necessary. However, a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and age (PMA/gestational age) of paediatric patients seems more appropriate.

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic analysis of tacrolimus in paediatric liver transplant patients

Aims: To build a population pharmacokinetic model that describes the apparent clearance of tacrolimus and the potential demographic, clinical and genetically controlled factors that could lead to inter-patient pharmacokinetic variability within children following liver transplantation.

Methods: The present study retrospectively examined tacrolimus whole blood pre-dose concentrations (n = 628) of 43 children during their first year post-liver transplantation. Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using the non-linear mixed effects modelling program (nonmem) to determine the population mean parameter estimate of clearance and influential covariates.

Results: The final model identified time post-transplantation and CYP3A5*1 allele as influential covariates on tacrolimus apparent clearance according to the following equation:

TVCL=12.9×(Weight /13.2)^0.75×EXP(-0.00158×TPT)×EXP(0.428×CYP3A5)

where TVCL is the typical value for apparent clearance, TPT is time post-transplantation in days and the CYP3A5 is 1 where*1 allele is present and 0 otherwise. The population estimate and inter-individual variability (%CV) of tacrolimus apparent clearance were found to be 0.977 l h kg (95% CI 0.958, 0.996) and 40.0%, respectively, while the residual variability between the observed and predicted concentrations was 35.4%.

Conclusion: Tacrolimus apparent clearance was influenced by time post-transplantation and CYP3A5 genotypes. The results of this study, once confirmed by a large scale prospective study, can be used in conjunction with therapeutic drug monitoring to recommend tacrolimus dose adjustments that take into account not only body weight but also genetic and time-related changes in tacrolimus clearance. © 2013 The British Pharmacological Society.

An Observational Study of Blood Concentrations and Kinetics of Methyl- and Propyl-Parabens in Neonates

Purpose: Systemic exposure to parabens in the neonatal population, in particular propyl-parabens (PPB), remains a concern. Blood concentrations and kinetics of methyl-parabens (MPB) and PPB were therefore determined in neonates receiving medicines containing these excipients.

Methods: A multi-centre, non-interventional, observational study of excipient-kinetics in neonates. ‘Dried Blood Spot’ samples were collected opportunistically at the same time as routine samples and the observations modelled using a non-linear mixed effects approach.

Results: A total of 841 blood MPB and PPB concentration data were available for evaluation from 181 pre- and term-neonates. Quantifiable blood concentrations of MPB and PPB were observed in 99% and 49% of patients, and 55% and 25% of all concentrations were above limit of detection (10 ng/ml), respectively. Only MPB data was amenable to modelling. Oral bioavailability was influenced by type of formulation and disposition was best described by a two compartment model with clearance (CL) influenced by post natal age (PNA); CL_{PNA<21 days} 0.57 versus CL_PNA>21days 0.88 L/h.

Conclusions: Daily repeated administration of parabens containing medicines can result in prolonged systemic exposure to the parent compound in neonates. Animal toxicology studies of PPB that specifically address the neonatal period are required before a permitted daily exposure for this age group can be established.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS: EFFECTS OF WALKING EXERCISE IN CHRONIC MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS: EFFECTS OF WALKING EXERCISE IN CHRONIC MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN O'Connor S.R.1, Tully M.A.2, Ryan B.3, Baxter D.G.3, Bradley J.M.1, McDonough S.M.11University of Ulster, Health & Rehabilitation Sciences Research Institute, Newtownabbey, United Kingdom, 2Queen's University, UKCRC Centre of Excellence for Public Health (NI), Belfast, United Kingdom, 3University of Otago, Centre for Physiotherapy Research, Dunedin, New ZealandPurpose: To examine the effects of walking exercise on pain and self-reported function in adults with chronic musculoskeletal pain.Relevance: Chronic musculoskeletal pain is a major cause of morbidity, exerting a substantial influence on long-term health status and overall quality of life. Current treatment recommendations advocate various aerobic exercise interventions for such conditions. Walking may represent an ideal form of exercise due to its relatively low impact. However, there is currently limited evidence for its effectiveness.Participants: Not applicable.Methods: A comprehensive search strategy was undertaken by two independent reviewers according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) and the recommendations of the Cochrane Musculoskeletal Review Group. Six electronic databases (Medline, CINAHL, PsychINFO, PEDro, Sport DISCUS and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) were searched for relevant papers published up to January 2010 using MeSH terms. All randomised or non-randomised studies published in full were considered for inclusion. Studies were required to include adults aged 18 years or over with a diagnosis of chronic low back pain, osteoarthritis or fibromyalgia. Studies were excluded if they involved peri-operative or post-operative interventions or did not include a comparative, non exercise or non-walking exercise control group. The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force system was used to assess methodological quality. Data for pain and self-reported function were extracted and converted to a score out of 100.Analysis: Data were pooled and analyzed using RevMan (v.5.0.24). Statistical heterogeneity was assessed using the X2 and I2 test statistics. A random effects model was used to calculate the mean differences and 95% CIs. Data were analyzed by length of final follow-up which was categorized as short (≤8 weeks post randomisation), mid (2-12 months) or long-term (>12 months).Results: A total of 4324 articles were identified and twenty studies (1852 participants) meeting the inclusion criteria were included in the review. Overall, studies were judged to be of at least fair methodological quality. The most common sources of likely bias were identified as lack of concealed allocation and failure to adequately address incomplete data. Data from 12 studies were suitable for meta-analysis. Walking led to reductions in pain at short (<8 weeks post randomisation) (-8.44 [-14.54, -2.33]) and mid-term (>8 weeks - 12 month) follow-up (-9.28 [-16.34, -2.22]). No effect was observed for long-term (>12 month) data (-2.49 [-7.62, 2.65]). For function, between group differences were observed for short (-11.57 [-16.06, -7.08]) and mid-term data (-13.26 [-16.91, -9.62]). A smaller effect was also observed at long-term follow-up (-5.60 [-7.70, -3.50]).Conclusions: Walking interventions were associated with statistically significant improvements in pain and function at short and mid-term follow-up. Long-term data were limited but indicated that these effects do not appear to be maintained beyond twelve months.Implications: Walking may be an effective form of exercise for individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain. However, further research is required which examines longer term follow-up and dose-response issues in this population.Key-words: 1. Walking exercise 2. Musculoskeletal pain 3. Systematic reviewFunding acknowledgements: Department of Employment and Learning, Northern Ireland.Ethics approval: Not applicable.

Dietary glycaemic index, glycaemic load and breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

This systematic review aimed to examine if an association exists between dietary glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) intake and breast cancer risk. A systematic search was conducted in Medline and Embase and identified 14 relevant studies up to May 2008. Adjusted relative risk estimates comparing breast cancer risk for the highest versus the lowest category of GI/GL intake were extracted from relevant studies and combined in meta-analyses using a random-effects model. Combined estimates from six cohort studies show non-significant increased breast cancer risks for premenopausal women (relative risk (RR) 1.14, 95% CI 0.95-1.38) and postmenopausal women (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.99-1.25) consuming the highest versus the lowest category of GI intake. Evidence of heterogeneity hindered analyses of GL and premenopausal risk, although most studies did not observe any significant association. Pooled cohort study results indicated no association between postmenopausal risk and GL intake (RR 1.03, 95% CI 0.94-1.12). Our findings do not provide strong support of an association between dietary GI and GL and breast cancer risk. © 2008 Cancer Research UK.


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