On the Assumption of Bivariate Normality in Selection Models: A Copula Approach Applied to Estimating HIV Prevalence

Background: Heckman-type selection models have been used to control HIV prevalence estimates for selection bias when participation in HIV testing and HIV status are associated after controlling for observed variables. These models typically rely on the strong assumption that the error terms in the participation and the outcome equations that comprise the model are distributed as bivariate normal.
Methods: We introduce a novel approach for relaxing the bivariate normality assumption in selection models using copula functions. We apply this method to estimating HIV prevalence and new confidence intervals (CI) in the 2007 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) by using interviewer identity as the selection variable that predicts participation (consent to test) but not the outcome (HIV status).
Results: We show in a simulation study that selection models can generate biased results when the bivariate normality assumption is violated. In the 2007 Zambia DHS, HIV prevalence estimates are similar irrespective of the structure of the association assumed between participation and outcome. For men, we estimate a population HIV prevalence of 21% (95% CI = 16%–25%) compared with 12% (11%–13%) among those who consented to be tested; for women, the corresponding figures are 19% (13%–24%) and 16% (15%–17%).
Conclusions: Copula approaches to Heckman-type selection models are a useful addition to the methodological toolkit of HIV epidemiology and of epidemiology in general. We develop the use of this approach to systematically evaluate the robustness of HIV prevalence estimates based on selection models, both empirically and in a simulation study.

DNA methylation profiling in cell models of diabetic nephropathy

We have previously identified differentially expressed genes in cell models of diabetic nephropathy and renal biopsies. Here we have performed quantitative DNA methylation profiling in cell models of diabetic nephropathy. Over 3,000 CpG units in the promoter regions of 192 candidate genes were assessed in unstimulated human mesangial cells (HMCs) and proximal tubular epithelial cells (PTCs) compared to HMCs or PTCs exposed to appropriate stimuli. A total of 301 CpG units across 38 genes (similar to 20%) were identified as differentially methylated in unstimulated HMCs versus PTCs. Analysis of amplicon methylation values in unstimulated versus stimulated cell models failed to demonstrate a >20% difference between amplicons. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that specific DNA methylation signatures are present in HMCs and PTCs, and standard protocols for exposure of renal cells to stimuli that alter gene expression may be insufficient to replicate possible alterations in DNA methylation profiles in diabetic nephropathy.

Differences in mouse models of diabetes mellitus in studies of male reproduction

Diabetes Mellitus (DM) has been found to have subtle yet profound effects on the metabolic status of the testis, the expression of numerous spermatogenic genes and is associated with increased numbers of sperm with nuclear DNA damage. The precise mechanism causing these detrimental effects remains unknown. The presence of increased levels of the most prominent member (carboxymethyllysine - CML) of the advanced glycation end product adducts and their receptor (RAGE) in the reproductive tract of DM men has provided a new avenue for research. As there are suspicions that the antibiotic (streptozotocin - STZ) employed to induce DM is also capable of causing oxidative stress and DNA damage, we compared CML and RAGE levels in the reproductive tract and sperm nDNA status of STZ mice with the levels in the Ins(2Akita) mouse to determine which more closely mimics the situation described in the human diabetic. CML was observed in the testes, epididymes and sperm of all animals. Sperm from DM mice showed particularly strong CML immunolocalization in the acrosomal cap, the equatorial region and whenever present, cytoplasmic droplets. Although increased, the level of CML on the sperm of the STZ and Ins(2Akita) DM mice did not reach statistical significance. RAGE was present on the developing acrosome and epididymal sperm of all animals and in discrete regions of the epididymes of the DM models. Only the epididymal sperm of the Ins(2Akita) mice were found to have significantly increased (p < 0.0001) nDNA damage. The Ins(2Akita) mouse therefore appears to more accurately reflect the conditions found in the human and, as such, is a more representative model for the study of diabetes and glycation's influence on male fertility.

Bevacizumab and rapamycin induce growth suppression in mouse models of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background/Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma is a leading cause of global cancer mortality, with standard chemotherapy being minimally effective in prolonging survival. We investigated if combined targeting of vascular endothelial growth factor protein and expression might affect hepatocellular carcinoma growth and angiogenesis.

The alterations of Ca2+/Calmodulin/CaMKII/CaV1.2 signaling in experimental models of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia

The two critical forms of dementia are Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VD).The alterations of Ca2+/calmodulin/CaMKII/CaV1.2 signaling in AD and VD have not been well elucidated. Here we have demonstrated changes in the levels of CaV1.2, calmodulin, p-CaMKII, p-CREB and BDNF proteins by Western blot analysis and the co-localization of p-CaMKII/CaV1.2 by double-labeling immunofluorescence in the hippocampus of APP/PS1 mice and VD gerbils. Additionally, expression of these proteins and intracellular calcium levels were examined in cultured neurons treated with Aß1–42. The expression of CaV1.2 protein was increased in VD gerbils and in cultured neurons but decreased in APP/PS1 mice; the expression of calmodulin protein was increased in APP/PS1 mice and VD gerbils; levels of p-CaMKII, p-CREB and BDNF proteins were decreased in AD and VD models. The number of neurons in which p-CaMKII and CaV1.2 were co-localized, was decreased in the CA1 and CA3 regions in two models. Intracellular calcium was increased in the cultured neurons treated with Aß1–42. Collectively, our results suggest that the alterations in CaV1.2, calmodulin, p-CaMKII, p-CREB and BDNF can be reflective of an involvement in the impairment in memory and cognition in AD and VD models.

Structural Breaks in Mortality Models and their Consequences

In recent years, the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and, hence, life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the cost of providing for older ages. This has resulted in an explosion of stochastic mortality models forecasting trends in mortality data in order to anticipate future life expectancy and, hence, quantify the costs of providing for future aging populations. Many stochastic models of mortality rates identify linear trends in mortality rates by time, age and cohort, and forecast these trends into the future using standard statistical methods. The modeling approaches used failed to capture the effects of any structural change in the trend and, thus, potentially produced incorrect forecasts of future mortality rates. In this paper, we look at a range of leading stochastic models of mortality and test for structural breaks in the trend time series.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for MAP Inference in Graphical Models

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

Mitochondrial Transfer via Tunneling Nanotubes (TNT) is an Important Mechanism by which Mesenchymal Stem Cells Enhance Macrophage Phagocytosis in the in vitro and in vivo Models of ARDS

Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) have been reported to improve bacterial clearance in pre-clinical models of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and sepsis. The mechanism of this effect is not fully elucidated yet. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the hypothesis that the anti-microbial effect of MSC in vivo depends on their modulation of macrophage phagocytic activity which occurs through mitochondrial transfer. We established that selective depletion of alveolar macrophages (AM) with intranasal (IN) administration of liposomal clodronate resulted in complete abrogation of MSC anti-microbial effect in the in vivo model of E.coli pneumonia. Furthermore, we showed that MSC administration was associated with enhanced AM phagocytosis in vivo. We showed that direct co-culture of MSC with monocyte-derived macrophages (MDMs) enhanced their phagocytic capacity. By fluorescent imaging and flow cytometry we demonstrated extensive mitochondrial transfer from MSC to macrophages which occurred at least partially through TNT-like structures. We also detected that lung macrophages readily acquire MSC mitochondria in vivo, and macrophages which are positive for MSC mitochondria display more pronounced phagocytic activity. Finally, partial inhibition of mitochondrial transfer through blockage of TNT formation by MSC resulted in failure to improve macrophage bioenergetics and complete abrogation of the MSC effect on macrophage phagocytosis in vitro and the anti-microbial effect of MSC in vivo.

Collectively, this work for the first time demonstrates that mitochondrial transfer from MSC to innate immune cells leads to enhancement in phagocytic activity and reveals an important novel mechanism for the anti-microbial effect of MSC in ARDS.

Discovery of Novel Allosteric Modulators of Metabotropic Glutamate Receptor Subtype 5 Reveals Chemical and Functional Diversity and In Vivo Activity in Rat Behavioral Models of Anxiolytic and Antipsychotic Activity

Modulators of metabotropic glutamate receptor subtype 5 (mGluR5) may provide novel treatments for multiple central nervous system (CNS) disorders, including anxiety and schizophrenia. Although compounds have been developed to better understand the physiological roles of mGluR5 and potential usefulness for the treatment of these disorders, there are limitations in the tools available, including poor selectivity, low potency, and limited solubility. To address these issues, we developed an innovative assay that allows simultaneous screening for mGluR5 agonists, antagonists, and potentiators. We identified multiple scaffolds that possess diverse modes of activity at mGluR5, including both positive and negative allosteric modulators (PAMs and NAMs, respectively). 3-Fluoro-5-(3-(pyridine-2-yl)-1,2,4-oxadiazol-5-yl) benzonitrile (VU0285683) was developed as a novel selective mGluR5 NAM with high affinity for the 2-methyl-6-(phenyl-ethynyl)-pyridine (MPEP) binding site. VU0285683 had anxiolytic-like activity in two rodent models for anxiety but did not potentiate phen-cyclidine-induced hyperlocomotor activity. (4-Hydroxypiperidin-1-yl)(4-phenylethynyl) phenyl) methanone (VU0092273) was identified as a novel mGluR5 PAM that also binds to the MPEP site. VU0092273 was chemically optimized to an orally active analog, N-cyclobutyl-6-((3-fluorophenyl) ethynyl) nicotinamide hydrochloride (VU0360172), which is selective for mGluR5. This novel mGluR5 PAM produced a dose-dependent reversal of amphetamine-induced hyperlocomotion, a rodent model predictive of antipsychotic activity. Discovery of structurally and functionally diverse allosteric modulators of mGluR5 that demonstrate in vivo efficacy in rodent models of anxiety and antipsychotic activity provide further support for the tremendous diversity of chemical scaffolds and modes of efficacy of mGluR5 ligands. In addition, these studies provide strong support for the hypothesis that multiple structurally distinct mGluR5 modulators have robust activity in animal models that predict efficacy in the treatment of CNS disorders.

Therapeutic effects of PPARα agonists on diabetic retinopathy in type 1 diabetes models

Retinal vascular leakage, inflammation, and neovascularization (NV) are features of diabetic retinopathy (DR). Fenofibrate, a peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor a (PPARa) agonist, has shown robust protective effects against DR in type 2 diabetic patients, but its effects on DR in type 1 diabetes have not been reported. This study evaluated the efficacy of fenofibrate on DR in type 1 diabetes models and determined if the effect is PPARa dependent. Oral administration of fenofibrate significantly ameliorated retinal vascular leakage and leukostasis in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats and in Akita mice. Favorable effects on DR were also achieved by intravitreal injection of fenofibrate or another specific PPARa agonist. Fenofibrate also ameliorated retinal NV in the oxygen-induced retinopathy (OIR) model and inhibited tube formation and migration in cultured endothelial cells. Fenofibrate also attenuated overexpression of intercellular adhesion molecule-1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and blocked activation of hypoxia-inducible factor-1 and nuclear factor-?B in the retinas of OIR and diabetic models. Fenofibrate's beneficial effects were blocked by a specific PPARa antagonist. Furthermore, Ppara knockout abolished the fenofibrate-induced downregulation of VEGF and reduction of retinal vascular leakage in DR models. These results demonstrate therapeutic effects of fenofibrate on DR in type 1 diabetes and support the existence of the drug target in ocular tissues and via a PPARa-dependent mechanism.

A question of taste: Recognising the role of latent preferences and attitudes in analysing food choices

There has long been substantial interest in understanding consumer food choices, where a key complexity in this context is the potentially large amount of heterogeneity in tastes across individual consumers, as well as the role of underlying attitudes towards food and cooking. The present paper underlines that both tastes and attitudes are unobserved, and makes the case for a latent variable treatment of these components. Using empirical data collected in Northern Ireland as part of a wider study to elicit intra-household trade-offs between home-cooked meal options, we show how these latent sensitivities and attitudes drive both the choice behaviour as well as the answers to supplementary questions. We find significant heterogeneity across respondents in these underlying factors and show how incorporating them in our models leads to important insights into preferences.