Time series wind power forecasting based on variant Gaussian process and TLBO

Due to the variability and stochastic nature of wind power system, accurate wind power forecasting has an important role in developing reliable and economic power system operation and control strategies. As wind variability is stochastic, Gaussian Process regression has recently been introduced to capture the randomness of wind energy. However, the disadvantages of Gaussian Process regression include its computation complexity and incapability to adapt to time varying time-series systems. A variant Gaussian Process for time series forecasting is introduced in this study to address these issues. This new method is shown to be capable of reducing computational complexity and increasing prediction accuracy. It is further proved that the forecasting result converges as the number of available data approaches innite. Further, a teaching learning based optimization (TLBO) method is used to train the model and to accelerate
the learning rate. The proposed modelling and optimization method is applied to forecast both the wind power generation of Ireland and that from a single wind farm to show the eectiveness of the proposed method.

Informal strategies of power in the local planning system

Existing studies that question the role of planning as a state institution, whose interests it serves together with those disputing the merits of collaborative planning are all essentially concerned with the broader issue of power in society. Although there have been various attempts to highlight the distorting effects of power, the research emphasis to date has been focused on the operation of power within the formal structures that constitute the planning system. As a result, relatively little attention has been attributed to the informal strategies or tactics that can be utilised by powerful actors to further their own interests. This article seeks to address this gap by identifying the informal strategies used by the holders of power to bypass the formal structures of the planning system and highlight how these procedures are to a large extent systematic and (almost) institutionalised in a shadow planning system. The methodology consists of a series of semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 urban planners working across four planning authorities within the Greater Dublin Area, Ireland. Empirical findings are offered that highlight the importance of economic power in the emergence of what essentially constitutes a shadow planning system. More broadly, the findings suggest that much more cognisance of the structural relations that govern how power is distributed in society is required and that ‘light touch’ approaches that focus exclusively on participation and deliberation need to be replaced with more radical solutions that look towards the redistribution of economic power between stakeholders.

A novel methodology for analysis of large scale interconnected power and gas systems

The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

The Decline of the Cow: Agricultural and Settlement Change in Early Medieval Ireland

This article considers cows and dairying as the basis a17of value system in early societies, particularly in Ireland. Only in a very few instances is it possible to demonstrate that such systems existed. When it does, it can be shown that cows and dairying were imbedded in the social or religious institutions of these cultures. Cattle had a value and meaning much greater than their economic worth in terms of food, hides, tallow etc. Such a systems, however, does not allow economic development as dairy produce does not easily lend itself to the production, and accumulation, of significant surplus nor is dairy produce particularly suitable for economic expansion based on trade. Its perishable nature militates against both roles. In order to develop political power that is based on economic power and wealth it is necessary to change the emphasis from livestock to cereal production.

China's Sovereign Wealth Funds: Problem or Panacea?

China’s impressive economic growth has led to the accumulation of massive financial assets. The emergence of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), as a governmental investment device for its excessive foreign reserves, symbolizes a major rebalancing of economic power. With its investment portfolios drastically diversified for well-established financial institutions as well as some strategic sectors, a seminal debate seems centered on whether China’s SWFs are in furtherance of purely commercial or geopolitically strategic purposes. Under the sophisticated hard laws associated with international initiatives, it is unlikely that the SWFs-related investment would distort the global financial system, and genuinely threaten national security, which assumption may only exist at a hypothetical level. The potential protectionism would inevitably retard the world economy’s recovery, were it not to be proportionately addressed. A most significant necessity appears to be to strike a proportionate balance between sustaining the credibility of open investment environment and efficiently minimizing implications of SWFs political arenas.

ECJ Fundamental Rights Jurisprudence between Member States' Prerogatives and Citizens' Autonomy

This chapter provides an analysis of the European Court of Justice's Fundamental Rights Jurisprudence, focused on the potential of Member States to maintain any positive regulatory role in supporting citizens' autonomy on the one hand, and on the impact of the Court's case law on citizens' opportunities to actually enjoy human rights within societies (substantive autonomy). It first sketches the notion of autonomy which is proposed as base of fundamental rights protection and promotion within a social reality characterized by not democratically legitimated dominance based on wealth and economic power. It proceeds to contextualize ECJ case law on fundamental rights. This section starts with a quantitative appetizer, which will formalize some assumptions and test them on a total of 150 cases before the European judiciary. The paper then offers a more conceptual recount around fundamental rights to equality and non-discrimination on the one hand and around fundamental rights of workers to actively shape employment and labor relations on the other hand. In conclusion some suggestions are made of how ECJ fundamental rights doctrine could develop more positively in order to moderate diverging interests of different parts of the citizenry in protecting fundamental rights.

“Bound in darkness and idolatry”? Protestant working class underachievement and Unionist hegemony

Over the past decade or more there has been a growing concern at the levels of educational underachievement within loyalist working-class areas of Northern Ireland. The inability of both educational and social policy initiatives over the past decade to improve the situation in any meaningful way has raised important questions concerning how the problem can be tackled more effectively. Placing the issue within the theoretical framework of Gramsci’s hegemony, this paper argues that there is a need to better understand the historical nature of the problem and to recognise the political and social forces that have shaped its existence. It argues that there is a need to move away from explaining Protestant underachievement simply by the availability of jobs in Ulster’s industrial past and to place its roots in the complex battle for social, political, and economic power since the 1801 Act of Union.

From brown envelopes to community benefits: the co-option of planning gain agreements under deepening neoliberalism

The provision of physical and social infrastructure in the form of roads, green spaces and community facilities has traditionally been provided for by the state through the general taxation system. However, as the state has been transformed along more neoliberal lines, the private sector is increasingly relied upon to deliver public goods and services. Planning gain agreements have flourished within this context by offering another vehicle through which local facilities are privately funded. Whilst these agreements reflect the broader dynamics of neoliberalism, they are commonly viewed as a tool which can be employed to challenge these very dynamics by empowering local communities to secure more just planning outcomes. This paper counters such claims. Based on evidence gathered from 80 interviews with planners, councillors, developers and community groups in Ireland, the paper demonstrates how planning gain agreements have been strategically redeployed by the holders of political and economic power to serve their own ends. In seeking to understand why and how this has occurred, specific consideration is given to the changing power dynamics between the state and private capital under neoliberalism. The paper highlights how institutional arrangements have enabled developers to infiltrate the political sphere in more subtle and implicit ways than ever before. We conclude by arguing that planning gain must be understood as a mechanism which has been manipulated in ways which essentially work to preserve and enhance, rather than redress, existing power imbalances in the planning system by facilitating large scale transfers of wealth upwards in society.

A techno-economic feasibility study of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland

Globally the amount of installed terrestrial wind power both onshore and offshore has grown rapidly over the last twenty years. Most large onshore and offshore wind turbines are designed to harvest winds within the atmospheric boundary layer, which can be vary variable due to terrain and weather effects. The height of the neutral atmospheric boundary layer is estimated at above 1300m. A relatively new concept is to harvest more consistent wind conditions above the atmospheric boundary layer using high altitude wind harvesting devices such as tethered kites, air foils and dirigible rotors. This paper presents a techno-economic feasibility study of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland. First this research involved a state of the art review of the resource and the technologies proposed for high altitude wind power. Next the techno-economic analysis involving four steps is presented. In step one, the potential of high altitude wind power in Northern Ireland using online datasets (e.g. Earth System Research Laboratory) is estimated. In step two a map for easier visualisation of geographical limitations (e.g. airports, areas of scenic beauty, flight paths, military training areas, settlements etc.) that could impact on high altitude wind power is developed. In step three the actual feasible resource available is recalculated using the visualisation map to determine the ‘optimal’ high altitude wind power locations in Northern Ireland. In the last step four the list of equipment, resources and budget needed to build a demonstrator is provided in the form of a concise techno-economic appraisal using the findings of the previous three steps.

Reserve from wind power potential in system economic loading

The growth of wind power in some power systems is hampered by the system requirement for emergency reserve to cover loss of the biggest infeed. The study demonstrates that reserve provision from the wind sector itself has economic and operational benefits. A heuristic algorithm has been developed that can model the relevant aspects of emergency reserve provision in a system with both thermal and wind generations. The proposed algorithm is first validated by comparing its performance with established economic scheduling methods applied to a representative power system. The algorithm is then used to demonstrate the economic benefit of reserve provision from the wind sector. It is shown that such provision reduces wind energy curtailment and thermal unit ramping. Finally, it is shown that a wind sector capable of providing emergency reserve can expand economically beyond the capacity limit that would otherwise apply.

Long-Term Economic Model for Allocation of FACTS Devices in Restructured Power System Integrated Wind Generation

This study proposes an approach to optimally allocate multiple types of flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices in market-based power systems with wind generation. The main objective is to maximise profit by minimising device investment cost, and the system's operating cost considering both normal conditions and possible contingencies. The proposed method accurately evaluates the long-term costs and benefits gained by FACTS devices (FDs) installation to solve a large-scale optimisation problem. The objective implies maximising social welfare as well as minimising compensations paid for generation re-scheduling and load shedding. Many technical operation constraints and uncertainties are included in problem formulation. The overall problem is solved using both particle swarm optimisations for attaining optimal FDs allocation as main problem and optimal power flow as sub-optimisation problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on modified IEEE 14-bus test system and IEEE 118-bus test system.