The Impact on Canada of the Rise of the Chinese Economy: Good, Bad or Indifferent? (Working Paper 50)

From humble beginnings less than twenty years ago, the economic relationship between Canada and the Chinese has flourished so that China is now Canada’s second most important trading partner after the United States. The Chinese demand for Canada’s exports, in particular in the natural resource sectors, has been a clear win for Canada, especially during the recent Great Recession where demand from other countries dropped sharply. But other aspects of the relationship have led to suggestions of costs. Canada’s large trade deficit with China at least looks superficially as a drag on the Canadian economy. It has been suggested the greater exposure to a low cost producer has displaced Canadian production and jobs and lowered wages. We find that each argument for costs to the relationship ignores important factors. On balance we conclude the relationship has been good for Canada, and it could be even better in the future.

The Debate on First Nations Education Funding: Mind the Gap (Working Paper 49)

It is at long last becoming part of the public discourse that improving living conditions and opportunities for First Nations communities in Canada is a national imperative. It is also widely recognized that the education is critical to fostering a better future for First Nations people. Yet, for many First Nations youth, particularly those on reserve, completing even high school is well beyond reach. The graduation rate of First Nations people living on reserve was 35.3 per cent as recently as 2011 compared with 78 per cent for the population as a whole. At the same time, the First Nations population is young and growing fast - in First Nations communities 49 per cent of the population is under 24 years of age compared to 30 per cent of the general population. Despite some incremental improvements in education success rates for First Nations students in recent years, the education gap between First Nations and the rest of the country is increasing. The concerns expressed in the 2011 Auditor General report continue to hold weight: "In 2004, we noted that at existing rates, it would take 28 years for First Nations communities to reach the national average. More recent trends suggest that the time needed may still be longer.

A Framework for Citizen-Centred Social Statistics and Analysis (Working Paper 48)

Economic policy-making has long been more integrated than social policy-making in part because the statistics and much of the analysis that supports economic policy are based on a common conceptual framework – the system of national accounts. People interested in economic analysis and economic policy share a common language of communication, one that includes both concepts and numbers. This paper examines early attempts to develop a system of social statistics that would mirror the system of national accounts, particular the work on the development of social accounts that took place mainly in the 60s and 70s. It explores the reasons why these early initiatives failed but argues that the preconditions now exist to develop a new conceptual framework to support integrated social statistics – and hence a more coherent, effective social policy. Optimism is warranted for two reasons. First, we can make use of the radical transformation that has taken place in information technology both in processing data and in providing wide access to the knowledge that can flow from the data. Second, the conditions exist to begin to shift away from the straight jacket of government-centric social statistics, with its implicit assumption that governments must be the primary actors in finding solutions to social problems. By supporting the decision-making of all the players (particularly individual citizens) who affect social trends and outcomes, we can start to move beyond the sterile, ideological discussions that have dominated much social discourse in the past and begin to build social systems and structures that evolve, almost automatically, based on empirical evidence of ‘what works best for whom’. The paper describes a Canadian approach to developing a framework, or common language, to support the evolution of an integrated, citizen-centric system of social statistics and social analysis. This language supports the traditional social policy that we have today; nothing is lost. However, it also supports a quite different social policy world, one where individual citizens and families (not governments) are seen as the central players – a more empirically-driven world that we have referred to as the ‘enabling society’.

Prudent Budget Planning and Budgetary Process Effectiveness: The Canadian Federal Government’s Experience (Working Paper 47)

In 1994, the Liberal government introduced a structured approach to prudent budgeting to provide the fiscal discipline needed to meet its debt reduction targets in which explicit prudence factors were introduced into the fiscal framework to reduce the amount of fiscal flexibility available for allocation in each annual budget. Although that framework was successful in contributing to the elimination of persistent budgetary deficits, this paper advances three linked arguments: • that additional but undisclosed prudence factors were also introduced into the fiscal framework to attenuate the political risk of missing budget targets; • that these undisclosed prudence factors are one cause of a number of unintended budgetary outcomes that put the effectiveness of the budgetary process at risk; and • that there is nothing inherently politically partisan about the Liberal’s approach to prudent budget planning and, changes to terminology and display notwithstanding, the present Conservative government has continued to apply most elements of that framework in its budgets. Moving from a single-year budget target to one that is expressed as a cumulative total over the election cycle is discussed as one option that would help preserve the merits of prudent budgeting.

Social Policy in Canada – Looking Back, Looking Ahead (Working Paper 46)

This paper discusses recent policy trends, the changing role of the various actors in the system, international comparisons and a range of other social policy topics. The immediate purpose of the paper is to examine the reasons why social policy analysts need to look into the future, and to explore ways of managing the inevitably large risks associated with such future-looking exercises. The underlying purpose, however, is simply to introduce a range of important Canadian social policy topic to students and others who are interested in social policy, but without much previous background in the area.

The Olivia Framework:Concepts for Use in Finely-Grained, Integrated Social Policy Analysis (Working Paper 45)

The Olivia framework is a set of concepts and measures that, when mature, will allow users to describe, in a consistent and integrated manner, everything about individuals and institutions that is of potential interest to social policy. The present paper summarizes the current stage of development in achieving this highly ambitious goal. The current version of the framework supports analysis of social trends and policy responses from many perspectives: • The point-in-time, resource-flow perspectives that underlie most traditional, economics-based policy analysis. • Life-course perspectives, including both transitions/trajectories analysis and asset-based analysis. • Spatial perspectives that anchor people in space and history and that provide a link to macro-analysis. • The perspective of the purposes/goals of individuals and institutions, including the objectives of different types of government programming. The concepts of the framework, which are all potentially measurable, provide a language that can support integrated analysis in all these areas at a much finer level of description than is customary. It provides a language that is especially well suited for analysis of the incremental policy changes that are typical of a mature welfare state. It supports both qualitative and quantitative analysis, enabling some integration between the two. It supports citizen-centric as well as a government-centric view of social policy. In its current version, the concepts are most highly developed as they related to social policies as they related to labour markets, equality and social integration, care-giving, immigration, income security, sustainability, and social and economic well-being more generally. However the paper points to likely extensions in the areas of health, justice and safety.

From Unemployment to Sustainable Livelihoods in Ottawa's Technology Sector (Working Paper 44)

Since submission of the draft report to the OECD‐LEED Program on 30 June 2007, a unique seven‐years retrospective study of the unemployed high technology workers was released by Statistics Canada.1 Drawing upon Statistics Canada’s confidential Longitudinal Worker File – itself constructed from four administrative data sources that linked Records of Employment and tax filer information by the Social Insurance Number and firm‐level data by a company identifier – this study was able to identify and trace the re‐employment of those permanently laid off in the high‐tech industry by location. The findings are stunning.

Performance Information and Innovation in the Canadian Government (Working Paper 43)

The presentation made at the conference addressed the issue of linkages between performance information and innovation within the Canadian federal government1. This is a three‐part paper prepared as background to that presentation. • Part I provides an overview of three main sources of performance information - results-based systems, program evaluation, and centrally driven review exercises – and reviews the Canadian experience with them. • Part II identifies and discusses a number of innovation issues that are common to the literature reviewed for this paper. • Part III examines actual and potential linkages between innovation and performance information. This section suggests that innovation in the Canadian federal government tends to cluster into two groups: smaller initiatives driven by staff or middle management; and much larger projects involving major programs, whole departments or whole-of-government. Readily available data on smaller innovation projects is skimpy but suggests that performance information does not play a major role in stimulating these initiatives. In contrast, two of the examples of large-scale innovation show that performance information plays a critical role at all stages. The paper concludes by supporting the contention of others writing on this topic: that more research is needed on innovation, particularly on its link to performance information. In that context, other conclusions drawn in this paper are tentative but suggest that the quality of performance information is as important for innovation as it is for performance management. However, innovation is likely to require its own particular performance information that may not be generated on a routine basis for purposes of performance management, particularly in the early stages of innovation. And, while the availability of performance information can be an important success factor in innovation, it does not stand alone. The commonality of a number of other factors identified in the literature surveyed for this paper strongly suggests that equal if not greater priority needs to be given to attenuating factors that inhibit innovation and to nurturing incentives.

The Canadian Federal Government’s Experience with Prudent Budget Planning (Working Paper 42)

The Liberal government made three significant changes to the budget process during the twelve years that it held office (from 1993 to the election call in the winter of 2005). The first of these changes was the formal introduction of prudent budget planning. The second was a focus on reallocation, beginning with its 1994 Program Review initiative, followed by a series of other measures. The third was the introduction for fiscal 2003-04 of a full accrual basis for the budget (though not, it should be noted, full accrual budgeting) and for the Public Accounts. This paper focuses predominantly on the first of these changes and examines its impact on the government’s budget and expenditure management decision-making processes.

A Simple Model of Access and Capacity for Post-Secondary Schooling in Canada (Working Paper 40)

This paper develops a simple model of the post-secondary education system in Canada that provides a useful basis for thinking about issues of capacity and access. It uses a supply-demand framework, where demand comes on the part of individuals wanting places in the system, and supply is determined not only by various directives and agreements between educational ministries and institutions (and other factors), but also the money available to universities and colleges through tuition fees. The supply and demand curves are then put together with a stylised tuition-setting rule to describe the “market” of post-secondary schooling. This market determines the number of students in the system, and their characteristics, especially as they relate to “ability” and family background, the latter being especially relevant to access issues. The manner in which various changes in the system – including tuition fees, student financial aid, government support for institutions, and the returns to schooling – are then discussed in terms of how they affect the number of students and their characteristics, or capacity and access.

Student Financial Aid:The Roles of Loans and Grants (Working Paper 37)

This paper addresses the roles of loans and grants as forms of student financial aid. It begins with a simple choice model where individuals decide to pursue post-secondary studies if i) the net benefits of doing so are positive and ii) no financing or liquidity constraints stand in their way. The effects of loans and grants on these two elements of the schooling decision are then discussed. It is argued that based on equity, efficiency, and fiscal considerations, loans are generally best suited for helping those who want to go but face financing constraints, whereas grants are more appropriate for increasing the incentives for individuals from disadvantaged backgrounds to further their studies. Loan subsidies, which make loans part-loan and part-grant, are also discussed, including how they might be used to address “debt aversion”. Given that subsidised loans have a grant (subsidy) element, while grants help overcome the credit constraints upon which loans are targeted, the paper then attempts to establish some general rules for providing loans, for subsidising the loans awarded, and for giving “pure” grants. It concludes with an application of these principles in the form of a recent proposal for reforming the student financial system in Canada. *

Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects from Project STAR (Working Paper 36)

This paper considers the analysis of data from randomized trials which offer a sequence of interventions and suffer from a variety of problems in implementation. In experiments that provide treatment in multiple periods (T>1), subjects have up to 2^{T}-1 counterfactual outcomes to be estimated to determine the full sequence of causal effects from the study. Traditional program evaluation and non-experimental estimators are unable to recover parameters of interest to policy makers in this setting, particularly if there is non-ignorable attrition. We examine these issues in the context of Tennessee's highly influential randomized class size study, Project STAR. We demonstrate how a researcher can estimate the full sequence of dynamic treatment effects using a sequential difference in difference strategy that accounts for attrition due to observables using inverse probability weighting M-estimators. These estimates allow us to recover the structural parameters of the small class effects in the underlying education production function and construct dynamic average treatment effects. We present a complete and different picture of the effectiveness of reduced class size and find that accounting for both attrition due to observables and selection due to unobservable is crucial and necessary with data from Project STAR

Do Peers Affect Student Achievement in China's Secondary Schools (Working Paper 35)

Peer effects have figured prominently in debates on school vouchers, desegregation, ability tracking and anti-poverty programs. Compelling evidence of their existence remains scarce for plaguing endogeneity issues such as selection bias and the reflection problem. This paper is among the first to firmly establish the link between peer performance and student achievement, using a unique dataset from China. We find strong evidence that peer effects exist and operate in a positive and nonlinear manner; reducing the variation of peer performance increases achievement; and our semi-parametric estimates clarify the tradeoffs facing policymakers in exploiting positive peers effects to increase future achievement.