Estimating Dynamic Treatment Effects from Project STAR (Working Paper 36)

This paper considers the analysis of data from randomized trials which offer a sequence of interventions and suffer from a variety of problems in implementation. In experiments that provide treatment in multiple periods (T>1), subjects have up to 2^{T}-1 counterfactual outcomes to be estimated to determine the full sequence of causal effects from the study. Traditional program evaluation and non-experimental estimators are unable to recover parameters of interest to policy makers in this setting, particularly if there is non-ignorable attrition. We examine these issues in the context of Tennessee's highly influential randomized class size study, Project STAR. We demonstrate how a researcher can estimate the full sequence of dynamic treatment effects using a sequential difference in difference strategy that accounts for attrition due to observables using inverse probability weighting M-estimators. These estimates allow us to recover the structural parameters of the small class effects in the underlying education production function and construct dynamic average treatment effects. We present a complete and different picture of the effectiveness of reduced class size and find that accounting for both attrition due to observables and selection due to unobservable is crucial and necessary with data from Project STAR

THE IMPACT OF VIRUS INFECTION IN DEREGULATION OF CYTOKINE PRODUCTION UPON SECONDARY BACTERIAL INFECTION

Dendritic cells (DCs) secrete cytokines such as interleukin-23 (IL-23) when stimulated with certain Toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists and infected with pathogens such as P. aeruginosa. IL- 23 is a proinflammatory cytokine that plays a critical role in the proliferation and differentiation of the IL-17 producing Th17- CD4 T helper cells. The lack of efficient cytokine production from antigen-presenting cells, such as DCs, can impact CD4 differentiation and thus impair the immune responses against pathogens. Clearance of some bacterial infections, such as Klebsiella pneumonia and Listeria monocytogenes has been shown to be dependent on the induction of IL-23 and therefore, deregulation of these cytokines as a direct result of virus infection may impede immune responses to secondary infections. Here, an inhibition of TLR ligand or P. aeruginosa-induced IL- 23 expression in Lymphocytic Choriomeningitis Virus (LCMV)-infected bone marrow-derived dendritic cells (BMDCs) has been demonstrated, indicating that an important function of these cells is disrupted during virus/bacterial coinfection. While production of TNF-α was unaffected in LPS stimulated cells, TNF-α was significantly inhibited in bacterium infected cells by LCMV. Type I IFN in LPS or LCMV infected cell was not detected and therefore, ruling out the possibility of cytokine suppression by Type I IFN. The production of IL-10 was high in BMDCs infected with LCMV and stimulated with LPS or bacteria. Analysis of multiple cytokines produced in this coinfection model demonstrated that LCMV infection impacts specific cytokine production upon LPS or bacterium infection, which may be important for bacterial clearance. This data is important for future immunotherapy use in viral/bacterial coinfection scenarios.