Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Investigation of Performance Enhancements for a Liquid-Desiccant Solar Air-Conditioner

Thermally driven liquid-desiccant air-conditioners (LDAC) are a proven but still developing technology. LDACs can use a solar thermal system to reduce the operational cost and environmental impact of the system by reducing the amount of fuel (e.g. natural gas, propane, etc.) used to drive the system. LDACs also have a key benefit of being able to store energy in the form of concentrated desiccant storage. TRNSYS simulations were used to evaluate several different methods of improving the thermal and electrical coefficients of performance (COPt and COPe) and the solar fraction (SF) of a LDAC. The study analyzed a typical June to August cooling season in Toronto, Ontario. Utilizing properly sized, high-efficiency pumps increased the COPe to 3.67, an improvement of 55%. A new design, featuring a heat recovery ventilator on the scavenging-airstream and an energy recovery ventilator on the process-airstream, increased the COPt to 0.58, an improvement of 32%. This also improved the SF slightly to 54%, an increase of 8%. A new TRNSYS TYPE was created to model a stratified desiccant storage tank. Different volumes of desiccant were tested with a range of solar array system sizes. The largest storage tank coupled with the largest solar thermal array showed improvements of 64% in SF, increasing the value to 82%. The COPe was also improved by 17% and the COPt by 9%. When combining the heat recovery systems and the desiccant storage systems, the simulation results showed a 78% increase in COPe and 30% increase in COPt. A 77% improvement in SF and a 17% increase in total cooling rate were also predicted by the simulation. The total thermal energy consumed was 10% lower and the electrical consumption was 34% lower. The amount of non-renewable energy needed from the natural gas boiler was 77% lower. Comparisons were also made between LDACs and vapour-compression (VC) systems. Dependent on set-up, LDACs provided higher latent cooling rates and reduced electrical power consumption. Negatively, a thermal input was required for the LDAC systems but not for the VC systems.