NEIGHBORHOOD PERCEPTION OF SAFETY AND THE MOBILITY GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN IN OLD AGE

Background and Objectives: Mobility limitations are a prevalent issue in older adult populations, and an important determinant of disability and mortality. Neighborhood conditions are key determinants of mobility and perception of safety may be one such determinant. Women have more mobility limitations than men, a phenomenon known as the gender mobility gap. The objective of this work was to validate a measure of perception of safety, examine the relationship between neighborhood perception of safety and mobility limitations in seniors, and explore if these effects vary by gender. Methods: This study was cross-sectional, using questionnaire data collected from community-dwelling older adults from four sites in Canada, Colombia, and Brazil. The exposure variable was the neighborhood aggregated Perception of Safety (PoS) scale, derived from the Physical and Social Disorder (PSD) scale by Sampson and Raudenbush. Its construct validity was verified using factor analyses and correlation with similar measures. The Mobility Assessment Tool – short form (MAT-sf), a video-based measure validated cross-culturally in the studied populations, was used to assess mobility limitations. Based on theoretical models, covariates were included in the analysis, both at the neighborhood level (SES, social capital, and built environment) and the individual level (age, gender, education, income, chronic illnesses, depression, cognitive function, BMI, and social participation). Multilevel modeling was used in order to account for neighborhood clustering. Gender specific analyses were carried out. SAS and M-plus were used in this study. Results: PoS was validated across all sites. It loaded in a single factor, after excluding two items, with a Cronbach α value of approximately 0.86. Mobility limitations were present in 22.08% of the sample, 16.32% among men and 27.41% among women. Neighborhood perception of safety was significantly associated with mobility limitations when controlling for all covariates, with an OR of 0.84 (CI 95%: 0.73-0.96), indicating lower odds of having mobility limitations as neighborhood perception of safety improves. Gender did not affect this relationship despite women being more likely to have mobility limitations and live in neighborhoods with poor perception of safety. Conclusion: Neighborhood perception of safety affected the prevalence of mobility limitations in older adults in the studied population.

RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.