Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Redistribution of Soil Organic Matter by Permafrost Disturbance in the Canadian High Arctic

With increased warming in the Arctic, permafrost thaw may induce localized physical disturbance of slopes. These disturbances, referred to as active layer detachments (ALDs), redistribute soil across the landscape, potentially releasing previously unavailable carbon (C). In 2007–2008, widespread ALD activity was reported at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory in Nunavut, Canada. Our study investigated organic matter (OM) composition in soil profiles from ALD-impacted and undisturbed areas. Solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and solvent-extractable biomarkers were used to characterize soil OM. Throughout the disturbed upslope profile, where surface soils and vegetation had been removed, NMR revealed low O-alkyl C content and biomarker analysis revealed low concentrations of solvent-extractable compounds suggesting enhanced erosion of labile-rich OM by the ALD. In the disturbed downslope region, vegetation remained intact but displaced material from upslope produced lateral compression ridges at the surface. High O-alkyl content in the surface horizon was consistent with enrichment of carbohydrates and peptides, but low concentrations of labile biomarkers (i.e., sugars) suggested the presence of relatively unaltered labile-rich OM. Decreased O-alkyl content and biomarker concentrations below the surface contrasted with the undisturbed profile and may indicate the loss of well-established pre-ALD surface drainage with compression ridge formation. However, pre-ALD profile composition remains unknown and the observed decreases may result from nominal pre-ALD OM inputs. These results are the first to establish OM composition in ALD-impacted soil profiles, suggesting reallocation of permafrost-derived soil C to areas where degradation or erosion may contribute to increased C losses from disturbed Arctic soils.

Shiftwork, sleep disturbance and the metabolic syndrome among female hospital workers

Background: Shiftwork is associated with increased sleep disturbance and cardiovascular and metabolic disease risk. This thesis will focus on shiftwork-related sleep disturbance and the potential mediating role of reduced sleep duration in the relationship between a current rotational shiftwork schedule and the metabolic syndrome among female hospital employees. Objectives: 1) To describe sleep patterns in relation to different shiftwork exposure metrics (current status, cumulative exposure, number of consecutive night shifts); 2) To assess the association between shiftwork metrics and sleep duration; 3) To determine whether sleep duration on work shifts mediates the relationship between a current rotational shiftwork pattern and the metabolic syndrome; and 4) To assess whether cumulative shiftwork exposure and the number of consecutive night shifts are associated with the metabolic syndrome. Methods: 294 female hospital employees (142 rotating shiftworkers, 152 dayworkers) participated in a cross-sectional study. Shiftwork parameters were determined through self-report. Sleep was measured for one week with the ActiGraph GT3X+, a tri-axial accelerometer. The metabolic syndrome was defined according to the Joint Interim Studies Consensus Statement. Sleep was described by shiftwork exposure parameters, and multivariable linear regression was used to determine associations between shiftwork variables and sleep duration. Regression path analysis was used to assess whether sleep duration was a mediator between a current shiftwork schedule and the metabolic syndrome, and the significance of the indirect (mediating) effect was tested with bootstrap confidence intervals. Logistic regression was used to determine associations between cumulative shiftwork exposure, number of consecutive night shifts, and the metabolic syndrome. Results: Current shiftworkers slept less on work shifts, more on free days, and were more likely to nap compared to dayworkers. Sleep duration on work shifts was a strong intermediate in the relationship between a current shiftwork pattern and the metabolic syndrome. Cumulative shiftwork exposure and the number of consecutive night shifts did not affect sleep or the metabolic syndrome. Conclusions: A current shiftwork pattern disrupts sleep, and reduced sleep duration is an important intermediate between shiftwork and the metabolic syndrome among female hospital employees.