Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Polymer Process Partitioning: Extruding Plastic Pipe

When plastic pipe is solidified, it proceeds through a long cooling chamber. Inside this chamber, inside the hollow extrudate, the plastic is molten, and this inner surface solidifies last. Sag, the flow due to the self-weight of the molten plastic, then happens in this cooling chamber, and sometimes, thickened regions (called knuckles) arise in the lower quadrants, especially of large diameter thickwalled pipes. To compensate for sag, engineers normally shift the die centerpiece downward. This thesis focuses on the consequences of this decentering. Specifically, when the molten polymer is viscoelastic, as is normally the case, a downward lateral force is exerted on the mandrel. Die eccentricity also affects the downstream axial force on the mandrel. These forces govern how rigidly the mandrel must be attached (normally, on a spider die). We attack this flow problem in eccentric cylindrical coordinates, using the Oldroyd 8-constant constitutive model framework. Specifically, we revise the method of Jones (1964), called polymer process partitioning. We estimate both axial and lateral forces. We develop a corresponding map to help plastics engineers predict the extrudate shape, including extrudate knuckles. From the mass balance over the postdie region, we then predict the shape of the extrudate entering the cooling chamber. We further include expressions for the stresses in the extruded polymer melt. We include detailed dimensional worked examples to show process engineers how to use our results to design pipe dies, and especially to suppress extrudate knuckling.

Process Monitoring and Defect Detection of Additive Manufacturing Using Inline Coherent Imaging

With applications ranging from aerospace to biomedicine, additive manufacturing (AM) has been revolutionizing the manufacturing industry. The ability of additive techniques, such as selective laser melting (SLM), to create fully functional, geometrically complex, and unique parts out of high strength materials is of great interest. Unfortunately, despite numerous advantages afforded by this technology, its widespread adoption is hindered by a lack of on-line, real time feedback control and quality assurance techniques. In this thesis, inline coherent imaging (ICI), a broadband, spatially coherent imaging technique, is used to observe the SLM process in 15 - 45 $\mu m$ 316L stainless steel. Imaging of both single and multilayer builds is performed at a rate of 200 $kHz$, with a resolution of tens of microns, and a high dynamic range rendering it impervious to blinding from the process beam. This allows imaging before, during, and after laser processing to observe changes in the morphology and stability of the melt. Galvanometer-based scanning of the imaging beam relative to the process beam during the creation of single tracks is used to gain a unique perspective of the SLM process that has been so far unobservable by other monitoring techniques. Single track processing is also used to investigate the possibility of a preliminary feedback control parameter based on the process beam power, through imaging with both coaxial and 100 $\mu m$ offset alignment with respect to the process beam. The 100 $\mu m$ offset improved imaging by increasing the number of bright A-lines (i.e. with signal greater than the 10 $dB$ noise floor) by 300\%. The overlap between adjacent tracks in a single layer is imaged to detect characteristic fault signatures. Full multilayer builds are carried out and the resultant ICI images are used to detect defects in the finished part and improve upon the initial design of the build system. Damage to the recoater blade is assessed using powder layer scans acquired during a 3D build. The ability of ICI to monitor SLM processes at such high rates with high resolution offers extraordinary potential for future advances in on-line feedback control of additive manufacturing.