Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

On the feasibility of time-lapse superconducting gravimetry for reservoir monitoring

The feasibility of monitoring fluid flow subsurface processes that result in density changes, using the iGrav superconducting gravimeter, is investigated. Practical targets include steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) bitumen depletion and water pumping from aquifers, for which there is currently a void in low-impact, inexpensive monitoring techniques. This study demonstrates that the iGrav has the potential to be applied to multi-scale and diverse reservoirs. Gravity and gravity gradient signals are forward modeled for a real SAGD reservoir at two time steps, and for surface-fed and groundwater-fed aquifer pumping models, to estimate signal strength and directional dependency of water flow. Time-lapse gravimetry on small-scale reservoirs exhibits two obstacles, namely, a µgal sensitivity requirement and high noise levels in the vicinity of the reservoir. In this study, both limitations are overcome by proposing (i) a portable superconducting gravimeter, and (ii) a pair of instruments under various baseline geometries. This results in improved spatial resolution for locating depletion zones, as well as the cancellation of noise common in both instruments. Results indicate that a pair of iGrav superconducting gravimeters meet the sensitivity requirements and the spatial focusing desired to monitor SAGD bitumen migration at the reservoir scales. For SAGD reservoirs, the well pair separation, reservoir depth, and survey sampling determine the resolvability of individual well pair depletion patterns during the steam chamber rising phase, and general reservoir depletion patterns during the steam chamber spreading phase. Results show that monitoring water table elevation changes due to pumping and tracking whether groundwater or surface water is being extracted are feasible.