Surface wave and storm surge prediction during Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was the largest storm on historical record in the Atlantic Ocean basin with extensive coastal damage caused by large waves and high storm surge. The primary objectives of this thesis are to compare and evaluate three different spatially-varying surface wind fields of Hurricane Sandy to investigate the impact of the differences between the complex wind fields on predictions of the sea surface evolution, and to evaluate the impact of the storm on the hydrodynamics in Great South Bay (GSB) and the discharge of ocean water into the back-barrier bay from overwash over Fire Island. Three different spatially-varying surface wind fields were evaluated and compared to wind observations, including the parametric Holland (1980) model (H80), the parametric Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM), and results from the WeatherFlow Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (WRAMS). The winds were used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and ocean wave models on a regional grid. The results indicate that the WRAMS wind field produces wave model predictions in the best agreement with significant wave height observations, followed by the GAHM and H80 wind fields and that a regional atmospheric wind model is best for hindcasting hurricane waves and water levels when detailed observations are available, while a parametric vortex model is best for forecasting hurricane sea surface conditions. Using a series of four connected Delft3D-SWAN grids to achieve finer resolution over Fire Island and GSB, a higher resolution WRAMS was used to predict waves and storm surge. The results indicate that strong local winds have the largest influence on water level fluctuations in GSB. Three numerical solutions were conducted with varying extents of barrier island overwash. The simulations allowing for minor and major overwash indicated good agreement with observations in the east end of GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to GSB during the storm. Limiting the overwash in the numerical model directly impacts the total discharge into GSB from the ocean through existing inlets. The results of this study indicate that barrier island overwash had a significant impact on the water levels in eastern GSB.

Nonlinear soil-structure interaction for buried pressure pipes under differential ground motion

Pipelines extend thousands of kilometers across wide geographic areas as a network to provide essential services for modern life. It is inevitable that pipelines must pass through unfavorable ground conditions, which are susceptible to natural disasters. This thesis investigates the behaviour of buried pressure pipelines experiencing ground distortions induced by normal faulting. A recent large database of physical modelling observations on buried pipes of different stiffness relative to the surrounding soil subjected to normal faults provided a unique opportunity to calibrate numerical tools. Three-dimensional finite element models were developed to enable the complex soil-structure interaction phenomena to be further understood, especially on the subjects of gap formation beneath the pipe and the trench effect associated with the interaction between backfill and native soils. Benchmarked numerical tools were then used to perform parametric analysis regarding project geometry, backfill material, relative pipe-soil stiffness and pipe diameter. Seismic loading produces a soil displacement profile that can be expressed by isoil, the distance between the peak curvature and the point of contraflexure. A simplified design framework based on this length scale (i.e., the Kappa method) was developed, which features estimates of longitudinal bending moments of buried pipes using a characteristic length, ipipe, the distance from peak to zero curvature. Recent studies indicated that empirical soil springs that were calibrated against rigid pipes are not suitable for analyzing flexible pipes, since they lead to excessive conservatism (for design). A large-scale split-box normal fault simulator was therefore assembled to produce experimental data for flexible PVC pipe responses to a normal fault. Digital image correlation (DIC) was employed to analyze the soil displacement field, and both optical fibres and conventional strain gauges were used to measure pipe strains. A refinement to the Kappa method was introduced to enable the calculation of axial strains as a function of pipe elongation induced by flexure and an approximation of the longitudinal ground deformations. A closed-form Winkler solution of flexural response was also derived to account for the distributed normal fault pattern. Finally, these two analytical solutions were evaluated against the pipe responses observed in the large-scale laboratory tests.