Structural evolution of the Lesser Himalayan fold-thrust belt of west central Nepal

The Lesser Himalayan fold-thrust belt on the south flank of the Jajarkot klippe in west central Nepal was mapped in detail between the Main Central thrust in the north and the Main Boundary thrust in the south. South of the Jajarkot klippe, the fold-thrust belt involves sandstone, shale and carbonate rocks that are unmetamorphosed in the foreland and increase in metamorphic grade with higher structural position to sub-greenschist facies towards the hinterland. The exposed stratigraphy is correlative with the Proterozoic Ranimata, Sangram, Galyang, Syangia Formations and Lakharpata Group of Western Nepal and overlain by the Paleozoic Tansen and Kali Gandaki Groups. Based on field mapping and cross-section construction, three distinct thrust sheets were identified separated by top-to-the-south thrust faults. From the foreland (south) to the hinterland (north), the first thrust sheet in the immediate hanging wall of the Main Boundary thrust defines an open syncline. The second thrust sheet contains a very broad synformal duplex, which is structurally stacked against the third thrust sheet containing a homoclinal panel of the oldest exposed Proterozoic stratigraphy. Outcrop scale folds throughout the study area are predominantly south vergent, open, and asymmetric reflecting the larger regional scale folding style, which corroborate the top-to-the-south deformation style seen in the faults of the region. Field techniques were complemented with microstructural and quartz crystallographic c-axis preferred orientation analyses using a petrographic microscope and a fabric analyzer, respectively. Microstructural analysis identified abundant strain-induced recrystallization textures and occasional occurrences of top-to-the-south shear-sense indicators primarily in the hinterland rocks in the immediate footwall of the Main Central Thrust. Top-to-the-south shearing is also supported by quartz crystallographic c-axis preferred orientations. Quartz recrystallization textures indicate an increase in deformation temperature towards the Main Central thrust. A line balance estimate indicates that approximately 15 km of crustal shortening was accommodated by folding and faulting in the fold-thrust belt south of the Jajarkot klippe. Additionally, estimations of shortening velocity suggest that the shortening velocity operating in this section of the fold-thrust belt between 23 to 14 Ma was slower than what is currently observed as a result of the ongoing deformation of the Sub-Himalayan fold-thrust belt.

Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.