Karst hazard analysis towards the development of predictive karst models for southern Ontario

An investigation into karst hazard in southern Ontario has been undertaken with the intention of leading to the development of predictive karst models for this region. The reason these are not currently feasible is a lack of sufficient karst data, though this is not entirely due to the lack of karst features. Geophysical data was collected at Lake on the Mountain, Ontario as part of this karst investigation. This data was collected in order to validate the long-standing hypothesis that Lake on the Mountain was formed from a sinkhole collapse. Sub-bottom acoustic profiling data was collected in order to image the lake bottom sediments and bedrock. Vertical bedrock features interpreted as solutionally enlarged fractures were taken as evidence for karst processes on the lake bottom. Additionally, the bedrock topography shows a narrower and more elongated basin than was previously identified, and this also lies parallel to a mapped fault system in the area. This suggests that Lake on the Mountain was formed over a fault zone which also supports the sinkhole hypothesis as it would provide groundwater pathways for karst dissolution to occur. Previous sediment cores suggest that Lake on the Mountain would have formed at some point during the Wisconsinan glaciation with glacial meltwater and glacial loading as potential contributing factors to sinkhole development. A probabilistic karst model for the state of Kentucky, USA, has been generated using the Weights of Evidence method. This model is presented as an example of the predictive capabilities of these kind of data-driven modelling techniques and to show how such models could be applied to karst in Ontario. The model was able to classify 70% of the validation dataset correctly while minimizing false positive identifications. This is moderately successful and could stand to be improved. Finally, suggestions to improving the current karst model of southern Ontario are suggested with the goal of increasing investigation into karst in Ontario and streamlining the reporting system for sinkholes, caves, and other karst features so as to improve the current Ontario karst database.

‘Black Settlers’: Hybridity, Neoliberalism and Ecosystemic Change Among Tonga Farmers of Southern Zambia, 1964-2008

This dissertation examines a process of indigenous accumulation among Tonga farmers in Zambia’s Southern Province. In the 1970s multiple authors concluded that capitalist farmers had emerged among Tonga agro-pastoralists, predominantly within private titled holdings. Relying on archival research, newspapers, secondary sources and extensive oral testimony this thesis fills a 35-year gap on the topic, providing insights into the social and environmental impacts of neoliberal policy among African peasants and capitalist farmers. In contrast to dominant narratives of the post-independence period, this study argues that Zambia did experience a developmental process post-independence, which saw significant achievements made in the agricultural sector, including the doubling of national cattle stocks. The data reveals a painful process of disarticulation beginning in the late 1980s. Following neoliberal adjustment, we observe significant heterogeneity in production systems, some regional specialization, and processes of migration. Most importantly, the thesis uncovers processes of overwhelming ecosystemic change that contributed to livestock epidemics of severe scale and scope. Amazingly, this went largely undocumented because of the simultaneous crisis of the state, which left the national statistics office and other state bodies incapable of functioning from the late 1980s into the 2000s. In response, the Zambian state has introduced a number of neodevelopmental initiatives in the sector, yet the lack of animal traction remained up to 2008 and agricultural production declined, while more capitalized farmers (largely white, and/or with foreign direct investment) have become more significant players in the country. This thesis provides compelling evidence to challenge dominant economic thinking of the Washington institutions as well as many of the common Marxian formulations.