Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Distributed Extremum-Seeking Control with Applications to High-Altitude Balloons

The real-time optimization of large-scale systems is a difficult problem due to the need for complex models involving uncertain parameters and the high computational cost of solving such problems by a decentralized approach. Extremum-seeking control (ESC) is a model-free real-time optimization technique which can estimate unknown parameters and can optimize nonlinear time-varying systems using only a measurement of the cost function to be minimized. In this thesis, we develop a distributed version of extremum-seeking control which allows large-scale systems to be optimized without models and with minimal computing power. First, we develop a continuous-time distributed extremum-seeking controller. It has three main components: consensus, parameter estimation, and optimization. The consensus provides each local controller with an estimate of the cost to be minimized, allowing them to coordinate their actions. Using this cost estimate, parameters for a local input-output model are estimated, and the cost is minimized by following a gradient descent based on the estimate of the gradient. Next, a similar distributed extremum-seeking controller is developed in discrete-time. Finally, we consider an interesting application of distributed ESC: formation control of high-altitude balloons for high-speed wireless internet. These balloons must be steered into a favourable formation where they are spread out over the Earth and provide coverage to the entire planet. Distributed ESC is applied to this problem, and is shown to be effective for a system of 1200 ballons subjected to realistic wind currents. The approach does not require a wind model and uses a cost function based on a Voronoi partition of the sphere. Distributed ESC is able to steer balloons from a few initial launch sites into a formation which provides coverage to the entire Earth and can maintain a similar formation as the balloons move with the wind around the Earth.