The political economy of industrial policy in Peru and Ecuador: 1980-2010

This dissertation focuses on industrial policy in two developing countries: Peru and Ecuador. Informed by comparative historical analysis, it explains how the Import-Substitution Industrialization policies promoted during the 1970s by military administration unravelled in the following 30 years under the guidance of Washington Consensus policies. Positioning political economy in time, the research objectives were two-fold: understanding long-term policy reform patterns, including the variables that conditioned cyclical versus path-dependent dynamics of change and; secondly, investigating the direction and leverage of state institutions supporting the manufacturing sector at the dawn, peak and consolidation of neoliberal discourse in both countries. Three interconnected causal mechanisms explain the divergence of trajectories: institutional legacies, coordination among actors and economic distribution of power. Peru’s long tradition of a minimal state contrasts with the embedded character of Ecuador long tradition of legal protectionism dating back to the Liberal Revolution. Peru’s close policy coordination among stakeholders –state technocrats and business elites- differs from Ecuador’s “winners-take-all” approach for policy-making. Peru’s economic dynamism concentrated in Lima sharply departs from Ecuador’s competitive regional economic leaderships. This dissertation paid particular attention to methodology to understand the intersection between structure and agency in policy change. Tracing primary and secondary sources, as well as key pieces of legislation, became critical to understand key turning points and long-term patterns of change. Open-ended interviews (N=58) with two stakeholder groups (business elites and bureaucrats) compounded the effort to knit motives, discourses, and interests behind this long transition. In order to understand this amount of data, this research build an index of policy intervention as a methodological contribution to assess long patterns of policy change. These findings contribute to the current literature on State-market relations and varieties of capitalism, institutional change, and policy reform.

Nonlinear soil-structure interaction for buried pressure pipes under differential ground motion

Pipelines extend thousands of kilometers across wide geographic areas as a network to provide essential services for modern life. It is inevitable that pipelines must pass through unfavorable ground conditions, which are susceptible to natural disasters. This thesis investigates the behaviour of buried pressure pipelines experiencing ground distortions induced by normal faulting. A recent large database of physical modelling observations on buried pipes of different stiffness relative to the surrounding soil subjected to normal faults provided a unique opportunity to calibrate numerical tools. Three-dimensional finite element models were developed to enable the complex soil-structure interaction phenomena to be further understood, especially on the subjects of gap formation beneath the pipe and the trench effect associated with the interaction between backfill and native soils. Benchmarked numerical tools were then used to perform parametric analysis regarding project geometry, backfill material, relative pipe-soil stiffness and pipe diameter. Seismic loading produces a soil displacement profile that can be expressed by isoil, the distance between the peak curvature and the point of contraflexure. A simplified design framework based on this length scale (i.e., the Kappa method) was developed, which features estimates of longitudinal bending moments of buried pipes using a characteristic length, ipipe, the distance from peak to zero curvature. Recent studies indicated that empirical soil springs that were calibrated against rigid pipes are not suitable for analyzing flexible pipes, since they lead to excessive conservatism (for design). A large-scale split-box normal fault simulator was therefore assembled to produce experimental data for flexible PVC pipe responses to a normal fault. Digital image correlation (DIC) was employed to analyze the soil displacement field, and both optical fibres and conventional strain gauges were used to measure pipe strains. A refinement to the Kappa method was introduced to enable the calculation of axial strains as a function of pipe elongation induced by flexure and an approximation of the longitudinal ground deformations. A closed-form Winkler solution of flexural response was also derived to account for the distributed normal fault pattern. Finally, these two analytical solutions were evaluated against the pipe responses observed in the large-scale laboratory tests.