The relationship of E. coli and total coliform culture to the quantitative molecular detection of various fecal indicators, sources, and pathogens in private drinking water wells

Water remains a predominant vector for human enteric pathogens not just for developing countries but also developed nations, where numerous infectious disease outbreaks, linked to the contamination of drinking water have been documented. Private drinking water wells are a source of drinking water that is largely unstudied even though a significant percentage of the population in Ontario relies on wells as their primary water source. As there exists little to no systematic surveillance for enteric infections or outbreaks related to well water sources, these individuals may be at higher risk of waterborne infectious diseases. The relationships between various fecal indicators in the water of private drinking water wells, including E. coli, Total Coliforms (TC) and Bacteroides, and enteric pathogens, including Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella spp., and Shiga toxin producing E. coli, were studied. Convenience private well water samples collected from various regions of interest during the summer of 2014 underwent membrane filtration and culture to determine quantities of E. coli and TC colony forming units. 289 E. coli positive and 230 TC-only waters were successfully analyzed by individual qPCR assays for the aforementioned enteric pathogens. Microbial source tracking methods targeted to specific Bacteroides were used to determine the source of fecal contamination as either human or bovine. The source of fecal contamination varied by geographic region and is thought to be due to such things as differences in septic tank density and underlying geology, among others. Fecal indicators, E. coli and Bacteroides, were significantly correlated. E. coli as measured by qPCR was more strongly correlated to both total and human-specific Bacteroides genetic markers than culturable E. coli. Lastly, 1.9% of samples showed molecular evidence of contamination with enteric pathogens. Although low, this finding is significant given the limited volume of water available for testing, and suggests a potential health risk to consumers. Knowing the extent of contamination, as well as the biologic source, can better inform risk assessment and the development of potential intervention strategies for private well water in specific regions of Ontario.

Communication-efficient decentralized sequential detection

The problem of decentralized sequential detection is studied in this thesis, where local sensors are memoryless, receive independent observations, and no feedback from the fusion center. In addition to traditional criteria of detection delay and error probability, we introduce a new constraint: the number of communications between local sensors and the fusion center. This metric is able to reflect both the cost of establishing communication links as well as overall energy consumption over time. A new formulation for communication-efficient decentralized sequential detection is proposed where the overall detection delay is minimized with constraints on both error probabilities and the communication cost. Two types of problems are investigated based on the communication-efficient formulation: decentralized hypothesis testing and decentralized change detection. In the former case, an asymptotically person-by-person optimum detection framework is developed, where the fusion center performs a sequential probability ratio test based on dependent observations. The proposed algorithm utilizes not only reported statistics from local sensors, but also the reporting times. The asymptotically relative efficiency of proposed algorithm with respect to the centralized strategy is expressed in closed form. When the probabilities of false alarm and missed detection are close to one another, a reduced-complexity algorithm is proposed based on a Poisson arrival approximation. In addition, decentralized change detection with a communication cost constraint is also investigated. A person-by-person optimum change detection algorithm is proposed, where transmissions of sensing reports are modeled as a Poisson process. The optimum threshold value is obtained through dynamic programming. An alternative method with a simpler fusion rule is also proposed, where the threshold values in the algorithm are determined by a combination of sequential detection analysis and constrained optimization. In both decentralized hypothesis testing and change detection problems, tradeoffs in parameter choices are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations.