3 resultados para Natural Catastrophe, Property Insurance, Loss Distribution, Truncated Data, Ruin Probability

em QSpace: Queen's University - Canada


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This thesis examines two ongoing development projects that received financial support from international development organizations, and an alternative mining tax proposed by the academia. Chapter 2 explores the impact of commoditization of coffee on its export price in Ethiopia. The first part of the chapter traces how the Ethiopian’s current coffee trade system and commoditization come to be. Using regression analysis, the second part tests and confirms the hypothesis that commoditization has led to a reduction in coffee export price. Chapter 3 conducts a cost-benefit analysis on a controversial, liquefied natural gas export project in Peru that sought to export one-third of the country’s proven natural gas reserves. While the country can receive royalty and corporate income tax in the short and medium term, these benefits are dwarfed by the future costs of paying for alternative energy after gas depletion. The conclusion is robust for a variety of future energy-price and energy-demand scenarios. Chapter 4 quantifies through simulation the economic distortions of two common mining taxes, the royalty and ad-valorem tax, vis-à-vis the resource rent tax. The latter is put forward as a better mining tax instrument on account of its non-distortionary nature. The rent tax, however, necessitates additional administrative burdens and induces tax-avoidance behavior, both leading to a net loss of tax revenue. By quantifying the distortions of royalty and the ad-valorem tax, one can establish the maximum loss that can be incurred by the rent tax. Simulation results indicate that the distortion of the ad-valorem tax is quite modest. If implemented, the rent tax is likely to result in a greater loss. While the subject matters may appear diverse, they are united by one theme. These initiatives were endorsed and supported by authorities and development agencies in the aim of furthering economic development and efficiency, but they are unlikely to fulfill the goal. Lessons for international development can be learnt from successful stories as well as from unsuccessful ones.

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How do the magnetic fields of massive stars evolve over time? Are their gyrochronological ages consistent with ages inferred from evolutionary tracks? Why do most stars predicted to host Centrifugal Magnetospheres (CMs) display no H$\alpha$ emission? Does plasma escape from CMs via centrifugal breakout events, or by a steady-state leakage mechanism? This thesis investigates these questions via a population study with a sample of 51 magnetic early B-type stars. The longitudinal magnetic field \bz~was measured from Least Squares Deconvolution profiles extracted from high-resolution spectropolarimetric data. New rotational periods $P_{\rm rot}$ were determined for 15 stars from \bz, leaving only 3 stars for which $P_{\rm rot}$ is unknown. Projected rotational velocities \vsini~were measured from multiple spectral lines. Effective temperatures and surface gravities were measured via ionization balances and line profile fitting of H Balmer lines. Fundamental physical parameters, \bz, \vsini, and $P_{\rm rot}$ were then used to determine radii, masses, ages, dipole oblique rotator model, stellar wind, magnetospheric, and spindown parameters using a Monte Carlo approach that self-consistently calculates all parameters while accounting for all available constraints on stellar properties. Dipole magnetic field strengths $B_{\rm d}$ follow a log-normal distribution similar to that of Ap stars, and decline over time in a fashion consistent with the expected conservation of fossil magnetic flux. $P_{\rm rot}$ increases with fractional main sequence age, mass, and $B_{\rm d}$, as expected from magnetospheric braking. However, comparison of evolutionary track ages to maximum spindown ages $t_{\rm S,max}$ shows that initial rotation fractions may be far below critical for stars with $M_*>10 M_\odot$. Computing $t_{\rm S,max}$ with different mass-loss prescriptions indicates that the mass-loss rates of B-type stars are likely much lower than expected from extrapolation from O-type stars. Stars with H$\alpha$ in emission and absorption occupy distinct regions in the updated rotation-magnetic confinement diagram: H$\alpha$-bright stars are found to be younger, more rapidly rotating, and more strongly magnetized than the general population. Emission strength is sensitive both to the volume of the CM and to the mass-loss rate, favouring leakage over centrifugal breakout.

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Numerous leukocyte populations are essential for pregnancy success. Uterine natural killer (uNK) cells are chief amongst these leukocytes and represent a unique lineage with limited cytotoxicity but abundant angiokine production. They possess a distinct phenotype of activating and inhibitory receptors that recognize major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules, such as the killer immunoglobulin like receptors (KIRs; mouse Ly49), and MHC-independent activating receptors, including the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) and natural cytotoxicity receptor 1 (NCR1). While the roles of MHC-dependent receptors are widely addressed in pregnancy, MHC-independent receptors are relatively unstudied. This thesis investigated the roles of MHC-independent receptors in promotion of mouse pregnancy and characterized early leukocyte interactions in the presence and absence of NCR1. It was hypothesized that loss of MHC-independent receptors impairs uNK cell development resulting in aberrations in leukocyte function and decidual vasculature. Implantation sites from Ahr-/- and Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice were assessed using whole mount in situ immunohistochemistry (WM-IHC) and histochemical techniques. Leukocyte interactions identified during preliminary WM-IHC studies were confirmed as immune synapses. The novel identification of immune synapses in early mouse pregnancy compelled further examination of leukocyte conjugates in wildtype C57BL/6 and Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice. In Ahr-/- and Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice, receptor loss resulted in reduced uNK cell diameters, impaired decidual vasculature, and failures in spiral artery remodeling. Ahr-/- mice had severe fertility deficits whereas Ncr1Gfp/Gfp mice had increased fetal resorption indicating differing receptor requirements in pregnancy success. NCR1 loss primarily affected uNK cell maturation and function as identified by alterations in granule ultrastructure, lytic protein expression, and angiokine production. Leukocyte conjugates were frequent in early C57BL/6 decidua basalis and included uNK cells conjugating first with antigen presenting cells and then with T cells. Overall conjugate formation was reduced in the absence of NCR1, but specific uNK cell conjugations were unaffected by receptor loss. While KIR-MHC interactions are associated with numerous pregnancy complications in humans, the role of other uNK cell receptors are not well characterized. These results illustrate the importance of MHC-independent receptors in uNK cell activation during early pregnancy in mice and encourage further studies of pregnancy complications that may occur independently of maternal KIR-MHC contributions.