Irreducibility of Random Hilbert Schemes

We prove that a random Hilbert scheme that parametrizes the closed subschemes with a fixed Hilbert polynomial in some projective space is irreducible and nonsingular with probability greater than $0.5$. To consider the set of nonempty Hilbert schemes as a probability space, we transform this set into a disjoint union of infinite binary trees, reinterpreting Macaulay's classification of admissible Hilbert polynomials. Choosing discrete probability distributions with infinite support on the trees establishes our notion of random Hilbert schemes. To bound the probability that random Hilbert schemes are irreducible and nonsingular, we show that at least half of the vertices in the binary trees correspond to Hilbert schemes with unique Borel-fixed points.