Karst hazard analysis towards the development of predictive karst models for southern Ontario

An investigation into karst hazard in southern Ontario has been undertaken with the intention of leading to the development of predictive karst models for this region. The reason these are not currently feasible is a lack of sufficient karst data, though this is not entirely due to the lack of karst features. Geophysical data was collected at Lake on the Mountain, Ontario as part of this karst investigation. This data was collected in order to validate the long-standing hypothesis that Lake on the Mountain was formed from a sinkhole collapse. Sub-bottom acoustic profiling data was collected in order to image the lake bottom sediments and bedrock. Vertical bedrock features interpreted as solutionally enlarged fractures were taken as evidence for karst processes on the lake bottom. Additionally, the bedrock topography shows a narrower and more elongated basin than was previously identified, and this also lies parallel to a mapped fault system in the area. This suggests that Lake on the Mountain was formed over a fault zone which also supports the sinkhole hypothesis as it would provide groundwater pathways for karst dissolution to occur. Previous sediment cores suggest that Lake on the Mountain would have formed at some point during the Wisconsinan glaciation with glacial meltwater and glacial loading as potential contributing factors to sinkhole development. A probabilistic karst model for the state of Kentucky, USA, has been generated using the Weights of Evidence method. This model is presented as an example of the predictive capabilities of these kind of data-driven modelling techniques and to show how such models could be applied to karst in Ontario. The model was able to classify 70% of the validation dataset correctly while minimizing false positive identifications. This is moderately successful and could stand to be improved. Finally, suggestions to improving the current karst model of southern Ontario are suggested with the goal of increasing investigation into karst in Ontario and streamlining the reporting system for sinkholes, caves, and other karst features so as to improve the current Ontario karst database.

WARMING AND CHRONIC HIGH NUTRIENT MANIPULATIONS YIELD DIFFERING LEGACY EFECTS ON THE SOIL MICROBIAL COMMUNITY AND NUTRIENT POOLS IN THE LOW ARCTIC

Climate warming is predicted to increase summer air temperatures in the Arctic, warming soils and enhancing microbial decomposition of soil organic matter. Given the size of the soil carbon stores in the Arctic, even a fraction of its release as CO2 to the atmosphere could result in a positive feedback to climate warming. Fertilizers have been used in the past to quickly increase soil solution nutrients pools to mimic predicted concentrations under climate warming. However, because it may have inadvertent affects on the soil microbial community, fertilizer-induced patterns in microbial decomposition may be unrealistic. This study aimed to better understand the proposed mechanism of enhanced microbial decomposition under nutrient addition and warming treatments to discern whether warming alone is enough to stimulate enhanced microbial decomposition, or if nutrients in excess (i.e. chronic high nutrient additions) are necessary to yield such a response. I investigated the impacts of 10 years of greenhouse summer warming, chronic low nutrient factorial addition (5 g N and 1g P m-2 year-1, respectively), and chronic high nutrient factorial addition (10 g N and 5g P m-2 year-1, respectively) treatments on a mesic birch hummock tundra ecosystem near Daring Lake, NWT, Canada. Soil microbial nutrient pools, soil solution nutrient pools, and microbial community structure were measured in the upper organic, lower organic, and uppermost mineral soil depth intervals of all treatment plots in Spring 2014. Interestingly, the low nutrient additions did not yield any significant trends, yet the warming treatment increased soil bacterial richness suggesting a legacy effect of warming from the previous summers. Enhanced microbial nutrient uptake occurred only in the high nutrient addition treatments, and did not significantly alter soil carbon at least within the ten year period of this experiment. Together, these results and the absence of significant impacts of the low nutrient and greenhouse warming treatments suggests that nutrient and carbon cycling in these low arctic soils may be resilient against climate warming, at least over the initial decades.