Minorities, Measured Cognitive Skills and the Earnings of Canadians (Working Paper 26)

This paper uses the Statistics Canada Survey of Literacy Skills in Daily Use (LSUDA) to investigate minority-“white”(i.e., non-minority) income differences and the role education and English/French literacy and numeracy skills play in those patterns. There are three principal sets of findings. First, among males, some visible minority groups have substantially lower levels of the measured language and number skills than whites and other more economically successful minorities, and in some cases these differences play a significant role in explaining the observed income patterns. The minority-white income gaps are, however, much smaller for women, and the literacy and numeracy variables do not have much of a role to play in explaining those differences. Second, for men, the minority-white income gaps are largely confined to immigrants, and there are no significant differences amongst the native-born once various factors which affect incomes (including education and the literacy and numeracy measures) are taken into account. For women, though, minority-white income differences only emerge for certain Canadian-born groups when they are differentiated from immigrants, for whom different gaps become apparent. Finally, the measured returns to literacy and numeracy differ significantly by ethnic group and sex. Various implications of the findings are discussed.

Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.