Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Gross and net nitrogen transformation rates and availability in late summer in tall shrub and birch hummock ecosystems of the Canadian low Arctic

Climate change is occurring most rapidly in the Arctic where warming has been twice as fast as the rest of the globe over the last few decades. Arctic soils contain a vast store of carbon and warmer arctic soils may mediate current atmospheric CO2 concentrations and global warming trends. Warmer soils could increase nutrient availability to plants, leading to increased primary production and sequestration of CO2. Presumably because of these effects of warming on shrub ecosystems, shrubs have been expanding across the arctic over the last 50 years, Arctic shrub expansion may track or cause changes in nutrient cycling and availability that favour growth of larger, denser shrubs. This study aimed at measuring gross and net nitrogen cycling rates, major soil nitrogen and carbon pool sizes, and elucidating controls on nutrient cycling and availability between a mesic birch (Betula nana) hummock tundra ecosystem and an ecosystem of dense, tall, birch (B. nana) shrubs. Nitrogen cycling and availability was enhanced at the tall shrub ecosystem compared to the birch hummock ecosystem. Net nitrogen immobilization by microbes was approximately threefold greater at the tall shrub ecosystem. This was in part because of larger microbial biomass nitrogen and carbon (interpreted as a larger microbial community) at the tall shrub ecosystem. Nitrogen inputs via litter were significantly larger at the tall shrub ecosystem and were hypothesized to be the major contributor to the higher dissolved organic and inorganic nitrogen pools in the soil at the tall shrub ecosystem. The results from this study suggest a positive feedback mechanism between litter nitrogen inputs and the enhancement of nitrogen cycling and availability as a driver of shrub expansion across the Arctic.