Transferability of Regional Permafrost Disturbance Susceptibility Modelling Using Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models

To effectively assess and mitigate risk of permafrost disturbance, disturbance-p rone areas can be predicted through the application of susceptibility models. In this study we developed regional susceptibility models for permafrost disturbances using a field disturbance inventory to test the transferability of the model to a broader region in the Canadian High Arctic. Resulting maps of susceptibility were then used to explore the effect of terrain variables on the occurrence of disturbances within this region. To account for a large range of landscape charac- teristics, the model was calibrated using two locations: Sabine Peninsula, Melville Island, NU, and Fosheim Pen- insula, Ellesmere Island, NU. Spatial patterns of disturbance were predicted with a generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), each calibrated using disturbed and randomized undisturbed lo- cations from both locations and GIS-derived terrain predictor variables including slope, potential incoming solar radiation, wetness index, topographic position index, elevation, and distance to water. Each model was validated for the Sabine and Fosheim Peninsulas using independent data sets while the transferability of the model to an independent site was assessed at Cape Bounty, Melville Island, NU. The regional GLM and GAM validated well for both calibration sites (Sabine and Fosheim) with the area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) N 0.79. Both models were applied directly to Cape Bounty without calibration and validated equally with AUROC's of 0.76; however, each model predicted disturbed and undisturbed samples differently. Addition- ally, the sensitivity of the transferred model was assessed using data sets with different sample sizes. Results in- dicated that models based on larger sample sizes transferred more consistently and captured the variability within the terrain attributes in the respective study areas. Terrain attributes associated with the initiation of dis- turbances were similar regardless of the location. Disturbances commonly occurred on slopes between 4 and 15°, below Holocene marine limit, and in areas with low potential incoming solar radiation

Investigating the Association Between Computer-Mediated Communication (CMC) and the Health of Canadian Young People: A Mixed Methods Study

Canadian young people are increasingly more connected through technological devices. This computer-mediated communication (CMC) can result in heightened connection and social support but can also lead to inadequate personal and physical connections. As technology evolves, its influence on health and well-being is important to investigate, especially among youth. This study aims to investigate the potential influences of computer-mediated communication (CMC) on the health of Canadian youth, using both quantitative and qualitative research approaches. This mixed-methods study utilized data from the 2013-2014 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey for Canada (n=30,117) and focus group data involving Ontario youth (7 groups involving 40 youth). In the quantitative component, a random-effects multilevel Poisson regression was employed to identify the effects of CMC on loneliness, stratified to explore interaction with family communication quality. A qualitative, inductive content analysis was applied to the focus group transcripts using a grounded theory inspired methodology. Through open line-by-line coding followed by axial coding, main categories and themes were identified. The quality of family communication modified the association between CMC use and loneliness. Among youth experiencing the highest quartile of family communication, daily use of verbal and social media CMC was significantly associated with reports of loneliness. The qualitative analysis revealed two overarching concepts that: (1) the health impacts of CMC are multidimensional and (2) there exists a duality of both positive and negative influences of CMC on health. Four themes were identified within this framework: (1) physical activity, (2) mental and emotional disturbance, (3) mindfulness, and (4) relationships. Overall, there is a high proportion of loneliness among Canadian youth, but this is not uniform for all. The associations between CMC and health are influenced by external and contextual factors, including family communication quality. Further, the technologically rich world in which young people live has a diverse impact on their health. For youth, their relationships with others and the context of CMC use shape overall influences on their health.