Remote Sensing of Vegetation Change Across a Latitudinal Gradient in the Canadian Arctic

Global air surface temperatures and precipitation have increased over the last several decades resulting in a trend of greening across the Circumpolar Arctic. The spatial variability of warming and the inherent effects on plant communities has not proven to be uniform or homogeneous on global or local scales. We can apply remote sensing vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to map and monitor vegetation change (e.g., phenology, greening, percent cover, and biomass) over time. It is important to document how Arctic vegetation is changing, as it will have large implications related to global carbon and surface energy budgets. The research reported here examined vegetation greening across different spatial and temporal scales at two disparate Arctic sites: Apex River Watershed (ARW), Baffin Island, and Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO), Melville Island, NU. To characterize the vegetation in the ARW, high spatial resolution WorldView-2 data were processed to create a supervised land-cover classification and model percent vegetation cover (PVC) (a similar process had been completed in a previous study for the CBAWO). Meanwhile, NDVI data spanning the past 30 years were derived from intermediate resolution Landsat data at the two Arctic sites. The land-cover classifications at both sites were used to examine the Landsat NDVI time series by vegetation class. Climate variables (i.e., temperature, precipitation and growing season length (GSL) were examined to explore the potential relationships of NDVI to climate warming. PVC was successfully modeled using high resolution data in the ARW. PVC and plant communities appear to reside along a moisture and altitudinal gradient. The NDVI time series demonstrated an overall significant increase in greening at the CBAWO (High Arctic site), specifically in the dry and mesic vegetation type. However, similar overall greening was not observed for the ARW (Low Arctic site). The overall increase in NDVI at the CBAWO was attributed to a significant increase in July temperatures, precipitation and GSL.

Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.